ADA 2026 Preview: Competition in Oral GLP-1 Heats Up, Chinese Assets Poised to Raise Global Visibility

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' preview research on China healthcare and GLP-1 pipelines ahead of ADA 2026. The report believes that with the approval of Wegovy pill and Foundayo, the commercial inflection point for oral GLP-1 has begun; Chinese biotech and pharmaceutical companies are making significant contributions to the subsequent oral GLP-1 pipeline, especially Innovent's small-molecule GLP-1 candidates and Hengrui's oral peptide and multi-target GLP-1 portfolio.

Core views

The core views include: first, oral GLP-1 is expected to capture a larger share of the global obesity treatment market, and investors will focus on early prescription trends and subsequent clinical data; second, new entrants need to establish clear differentiation versus Wegovy pill and Foundayo in efficacy, tolerability, and dosing convenience; third, the value of Innovent's IBI3032 depends on differentiation versus later-stage peer assets and global clinical execution; fourth, multiple Hengrui datasets show it is attempting to build a full-spectrum GLP-1 portfolio spanning obesity, diabetes, PCOS, combination therapy, and multi-target mechanisms.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes through a combination of event preview, cross-sectional comparison of clinical data, pipeline progress assessment, valuation methodology explanation, and company investment cases. Key comparison dimensions include magnitude of weight loss, placebo-adjusted efficacy, gastrointestinal adverse events, dose-escalation strategy, clinical stage progress, global phase III initiation timing, and commercialization capability.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsRisk-adjusted DCF

  Innovative drug valuation

  Hengrui's innovative drug valuation uses a risk-adjusted DCF, assuming a WACC of 9.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3%; Innovent's 12-month target price is based on a risk-adjusted DCF, assuming a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

• Clinical ComparisonNon-head-to-head comparison

  Cross-pipeline comparison of GLP-1 assets

  The report conducts non-head-to-head comparisons of weight loss, treatment duration, and safety among different oral GLP-1 and multi-target candidate drugs to judge potential differentiation, but such comparisons are affected by differences in trial design, patient populations, and dosing strategies.

• Company ResearchGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile compares stocks versus the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Innovent Biologics

  Core covered company; beneficiary in oral GLP-1 and metabolic pipeline

  Strengths

  It has metabolic assets including IBI3032, IBI3042, and mazdutide, along with strong commercialization capabilities and global partnership resources.

  Weaknesses

  IBI3032 trails aleniglipron and ASC30 by about 2.5 years and 1.5 years, respectively, and still needs to prove differentiation and global clinical execution capability.

  Comparison

  The report compares the early data of IBI3032 with oral GLP-1 assets such as Wegovy pill, Foundayo, aleniglipron, and ASC30.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in the PD-1/L1 market, uncertainty around approval timing for key candidates, safety issues limiting broader-label use, and R&D project failures.

• Hengrui Medicine

  Core covered company; GLP-1 portfolio and innovative drug transformation play

  Strengths

  It has pipelines including HRS-9531, HRS-7535, HR17031, and HRS-4729 spanning oral, combination therapy, and multi-target mechanisms, supported by a mature sales team.

  Weaknesses

  The ramp-up of innovative drugs, overseas progress, and pipeline success rates remain key constraints on further valuation upside.

  Comparison

  HRS-4729 is compared with UBT251 on a non-head-to-head basis, with seemingly slightly lower efficacy; HRS-9531 still requires further observation on titration regimen and dose requirements.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected ramp-up of innovative drugs after NRDL inclusion, failure of key late-stage R&D projects, higher-than-expected R&D and management expenses from global expansion, greater-than-expected price cuts for generics and innovative drugs, and weaker-than-expected license-out or overseas expansion progress.

Key data

• ADA 2026 timing2026-06-05 to 2026-06-08The report was released before the conference and focuses on updates to Chinese companies' metabolic pipelines.
• 2030 oral obesity drug market sizeover US$35bnCiting views from the U.S./Europe teams, the report expects oral obesity drugs to account for about 35% of AOM TAM by 2030.
• Wegovy pill / Foundayo placebo-adjusted weight loss13.9% / 11.5%The report believes this Phase III data has already set a high competitive threshold for next-generation oral GLP-1s.
• Early efficacy already disclosed for Innovent IBI303210% weight loss at 4 weeksThe report believes ADA 2026 needs to further clarify dose levels, sample size, and tolerability details.
• Efficacy already disclosed for Hengrui HRS-9531Week 26 weight loss of -9.8%More detailed phase II obesity data will be disclosed at ADA 2026.
• Efficacy of Hengrui HRS-4729Week 12 weight loss of -16%, placebo-adjusted -10.6%The report says safety is tolerable and compares it with UBT251 on a non-head-to-head basis.
• Target price for Hengrui MedicineRmb79.2012-month target price, Buy rating.
• Target price for Innovent BiologicsHK$107.0412-month target price, Buy rating.

Impact & implications

If ADA 2026 data validate IBI3032's rapid weight loss and manageable tolerability, Innovent's pipeline value in the oral GLP-1 space may be re-rated; if Hengrui can demonstrate synergies across multiple assets, mechanisms, and indications, its GLP-1 portfolio could help reinforce the investment case for the company's transformation from generics plus innovation into an innovative drug platform. However, new oral GLP-1 entrants still need to overcome multiple hurdles, including phase III efficacy, safety, dosing convenience, global clinical execution, and commercialization competition.

Risks

• New oral GLP-1s may fail to demonstrate clear efficacy or tolerability advantages versus Wegovy pill and Foundayo.
• Early SAD/MAD trials have small sample sizes, and AE incidence and efficacy may be subject to significant random fluctuation.
• Poorly designed dose-escalation regimens may affect tolerability and the actual usable dose.
• Lagging or failed global phase III clinical execution may weaken the pipeline value of China-originated assets.
• Intensifying competition in GLP-1, PD-1/L1, and innovative drug markets may compress commercialization opportunities.
• Drug price cuts, slower-than-expected NRDL-driven volume growth, and rising overseas expansion costs may affect earnings and valuation.

What to watch

• At ADA 2026, the SAD/MAD sample size, dose dependency, weight-loss magnitude, and tolerability data of IBI3032.
• Whether IBI3032 can prove differentiation versus aleniglipron, ASC30, Wegovy pill, and Foundayo.
• Detailed phase II obesity data, titration regimen, and dose requirements for Hengrui HRS-9531.
• Comparative data for Hengrui HR17031 versus insulin glargine, as well as NDA filing progress for HRS-7535.
• Follow-up phase II data comparisons between HRS-4729 and multi-target assets such as UBT251.
• Prescription trends during the initial ramp-up phase of Wegovy pill and Foundayo.