Server memory procurement acceleration is picking up, and UBS raised DDR, NAND and HBM demand/price assumptions

Overview

This report focuses on the May 2026 memory semiconductor monthly update, with a core conclusion that the upward trend in server memory procurement is continuing to accelerate and is simultaneously lifting demand and pricing for DRAM, HBM and NAND Flash. UBS, based on the latest industry research, raised expectations for 2Q26 server DDR and NAND contract price sequential increases and revised up its 2026-27 HBM end-demand forecasts. The report argues that AI servers, GPU/accelerators and cloud players' custom-chip procurement remain the main incremental sources of storage demand.

Core views

First, the magnitude of server DDR price increases has exceeded previous expectations, with 2Q26 contract prices expected to be near +60% QoQ and potentially approaching US$2.80/Gb by 4Q27, while the gap with mobile DRAM is widening. Second, NAND Flash contract prices are also being driven by server SSDs, with 2Q26 expected to rise around +60% QoQ and 3Q26 expected to continue at +10% QoQ. Third, HBM demand has again been revised up, to 32.9bn Gb in 2026 and 58.0bn Gb in 2027, with the main upward revision coming from Google TPU assumptions. Fourth, supply-side structure is shifting: SK Hynix is allocating more capacity to traditional high-end DRAM due to strong DDR5/LPDDR5X demand, while Samsung is expected to catch up materially on HBM share in 2027 due to front-loaded capex.

Analysis framework

The report combines industry research, supply-demand modeling, pricing assumptions, bottom-up decomposition of GPU/accelerator demand, and supplier share forecasts. UBS incorporates server procurement, HBM content density, GPU/accelerator shipments, DRAM capacity allocation, NAND supply-demand and changes in supplier capex to assess storage industry price, shipment and share dynamics for 2026-27.

Methodology notes

• Supply-demand analysisUBS DRAM and NAND supply-demand model

  Determine the price cycle by decomposing bit demand, bit supply, inventories and end-market demand.

  The report uses DRAM, HBM and NAND supply-demand summaries, supplier bit shipments, wafer capacity and end-demand growth to explain how server demand passes through to pricing.

• Bottom-up modelUBS server procurement model

  Derive memory demand from assumptions on server procurement, GPU/accelerator and cloud vendor custom chip purchases.

  The report cites Dell'Oro Group, Gartner, company data and UBS estimates to build server DRAM and HBM demand forecasts, broken down by demand sources including NVIDIA, Google, AMD, Amazon and Meta.

• Share and scenario analysisHBM supplier bit-share forecast

  Compare SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron changes in HBM shipments and capacity allocation.

  UBS reduced SK Hynix's 2026-27 HBM shipment forecast and raised Samsung's 2027 forecast, then derived a 2027 HBM bit-share landscape of 40% for Samsung, 40% for SK Hynix and 20% for Micron.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SK Hynix

  Major supplier of HBM and high-end DRAM

  Strengths

  It remains the leading HBM supplier through 2024-2026, with strong customer demand; rising DDR5/LPDDR5X demand gives it greater capacity allocation flexibility.

  Weaknesses

  Because more capacity is being allocated to DDR5/LPDDR5X, UBS reduced its 2026 and 2027 HBM shipment forecast for SK Hynix.

  Comparison

  In 2027, its HBM bit share is expected to converge to 40%, tying with Samsung and above Micron's 20%.

  Risks

  If Samsung’s capacity and yield improve faster than expected, SK Hynix's share advantage could be further squeezed.

• Samsung Electronics

  HBM, DRAM and NAND integrated supplier

  Strengths

  Recent front-loaded capex has led to a raise in 2027 HBM shipment forecasts, potentially bringing Samsung to parity with SK Hynix on HBM share in 2027.

  Weaknesses

  Its HBM share remains relatively low in 2025 and further catching up depends on capacity, customer qualification and execution pace.

  Comparison

  In 2027, HBM bit share is expected to reach 40%, tied with SK Hynix and above Micron.

  Risks

  If HBM demand or customer qualification cadence disappoints, the upward revision to shipment forecasts could be at risk.

• Micron Technology

  HBM and DRAM/NAND supplier

  Strengths

  Expected to keep HBM share around 20%-22% through 2025-2027 and participate in the AI storage upcycle.

  Weaknesses

  Relative to SK Hynix and Samsung, its HBM bit share in 2027 is expected to be lower.

  Comparison

  Expected around 20% in 2027, below Samsung and SK Hynix at 40% each.

  Risks

  HBM node transitions, capacity ramp timing and customer-share competition could affect its upside elasticity.

• NVIDIA

  Primary driver of GPU/accelerator and HBM demand

  Strengths

  In the demand split, it remains the largest share in charts, with the Rubin platform expected to continue driving HBM4/HBM4E demand.

  Weaknesses

  The Rubin Ultra HBM configuration assumption was reduced from 1TB to 768GB, indicating ongoing uncertainty around per-system HBM content.

  Comparison

  Compared with other cloud players or chip platforms, NVIDIA remains one of the largest demand sources.

  Risks

  16-Hi HBM4E yield and thermocompression-bonding complexity, as well as DRAM die supply constraints, could affect its configured roadmap.

• Google TPU

  Key source of HBM demand upward revisions

  Strengths

  UBS raised Google TPU procurement assumptions, which was the main driver behind the upward revision to 2026-27 HBM end-demand forecasts.

  Weaknesses

  Demand depends on cloud capex and the deployment pace of custom chips.

  Comparison

  Among non-NVIDIA accelerator demand, Google is an important incremental source.

  Risks

  If TPU procurement slows, the magnitude of the HBM demand revision could decline.

• Server DDR/DDR5

  One of the core categories in this memory price upcycle

  Strengths

  2Q26 contract prices are expected near +60% QoQ, and some DDR5 quotes are close to US$2.10/Gb.

  Weaknesses

  Rapid price increases could compress procurement flexibility for downstream server customers.

  Comparison

  The report sees the gap with mobile DRAM pricing continuing to widen.

  Risks

  If server procurement or AI capex cools, the persistence of the price rise could weaken.

• NAND Flash/server SSD

  Storage segment driven by server demand

  Strengths

  2Q26 NAND contract price forecast was revised up to +60% QoQ, with 3Q26 expected to continue at +10%.

  Weaknesses

  NAND is highly cyclical, and supply expansion or inventory swings could affect price persistence.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional consumer NAND, server SSD is the main driver in this revision.

  Risks

  If server SSD demand underperforms or suppliers ramp too quickly, the pricing-up logic could weaken.

Key data

• 2Q26 server DDR contract price increasearound +60% QoQPrior forecast was +37%; server DDR prices are estimated around US$1.95/Gb, with some DDR5 quotes close to US$2.10.
• 3Q26 server DDR price forecast+10% QoQUBS continues to forecast a QoQ increase in server DDR prices in 3Q26.
• 4Q27 server DDR price forecastaround US$2.80/GbIndicates the server DDR price upcycle is being extended.
• 2Q26 NAND contract price increase+60% QoQPrior forecast was +40%; mainly driven by server SSD demand.
• 2026 HBM end-demand forecast32.9bn Gb, +88% YoYPreviously forecast at 31.5bn Gb.
• 2027 HBM end-demand forecast58.0bn Gb, +76% YoYPreviously forecast at 53.9bn Gb.
• SK Hynix HBM shipment forecast17.7bn Gb in 2026; 23.1bn Gb in 2027Below prior forecasts of 18.4bn Gb and 24.7bn Gb, due to more capacity being shifted to DDR5/LPDDR5X.
• Samsung HBM shipment forecast9.7bn Gb in 2026; 23.0bn Gb in 2027The 2027 forecast was raised from 20.3bn Gb to 23.0bn Gb.
• 2027 HBM bit share forecastSamsung 40%, SK Hynix 40%, Micron 20%Samsung may catch up with SK Hynix in 2027.
• 2027 HBM ASP assumptionHBM4/HBM3E +30% YoY per bit; HBM4E remains +50% versus prior-year HBM4UBS raised its 2027 ASP assumption for HBM4/HBM3E from flat to +30% YoY.

Impact & implications

The report’s implications for the storage chain are constructively biased: server DDR, HBM and server SSD demand reinforce each other, potentially supporting further memory-price rises and improving storage vendors' revenue and earnings leverage. On the supply side, reallocating capacity between HBM and DDR5/LPDDR5X will affect individual suppliers' share and pricing power; Samsung's catch-up in 2027 becomes a key variable for HBM supply-demand balance. On the demand side, Google TPU, NVIDIA Rubin platform and other AI accelerator procurement assumptions will continue to materially affect total HBM demand and generational mix.

Risks

• Tech sector risk remains high, with rapid technology changes, intensifying competition and macro cyclical sensitivity potentially affecting semiconductor stock performance.
• If AI server and cloud capex slow, server DDR, HBM and NAND demand forecasts may be revised lower.
• HBM4E 16-Hi has greater thermocompression-bonding yield challenges versus 12-Hi; the product roadmap is still evolving and not fully finalized.
• Constraints at the DRAM die level could affect HBM allocation, deliveries and customer platform qualification timelines.
• Changes in capex, yield, customer qualification and capacity allocation at Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron could cause share forecasts to deviate.
• Rapid storage price increases may prompt delayed downstream purchasing or reduced demand elasticity.

What to watch

• Whether actual 2Q26 and 3Q26 server DDR contract price increases meet UBS's forecasts.
• Whether NAND contract prices and server SSD demand continue to support a 3Q26 sequential increase.
• Whether Google TPU, Broadcom and MediaTek forecasts continue to be revised higher.
• Final HBM capacity allocation on NVIDIA Rubin/Rubin Ultra, especially the 768GB versus 1TB configuration choice.
• Samsung's 2027 HBM capacity, yield, customer qualification and front-loaded capex effects.
• SK Hynix's capacity split between HBM and DDR5/LPDDR5X.
• Whether HBM demand remains above supply in 2027, and whether inventories expand.