2026 ASCO Preview: Record-breaking Data from Chinese Innovative Drugs, Focusing on Four Core Stocks

Overview

This report is Nomura Securities' pre-conference preview for the 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, focusing on the key clinical data highlights to be presented by its covered Chinese healthcare companies. The report notes that the number of oral presentations and late-breaking abstracts (LBAs) from Chinese companies at ASCO this year has set a historical record, reflecting the increasing weight of China's oncology innovative drug development. In addition to Kelun-Biotech and Innovent Biologics, which have been previously covered, the report highlights the core asset data readouts and preliminary results from Kangfang Biotech, BeiGene, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, and Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, providing clear guidance for investors attending or tracking the conference.

Core views

Industry Level: During the 2026 ASCO conference (May 29 to June 2 local time), 94 studies conducted in China will be presented orally, including 12 selected as late-breaking abstracts (LBAs), both metrics reaching historical highs. This density of data visually demonstrates the enhanced voice of Chinese innovative drugs in the global oncology R&D landscape and serves as the most noteworthy macro background for this conference. Kangfang Biotech (9926 HK, Neutral): Market focus centers on the overall survival (OS) data from the HARMONi-6 study. The data is scheduled for release on the afternoon of May 31 local time and is one of the most anticipated events at the conference. According to institutional insights, investors generally expect the study's hazard ratio (HR) to fall within the 0.70-0.72 range, with some optimistic expectations even seeing 0.68-0.70. Beyond this core study, the company will also present over 40 clinical results. BeiGene (6160 HK/ONC US, Buy): The company will present over 60 abstracts, with early data from its solid tumor pipeline becoming a new focus for the market alongside its strength in hematologic malignancies. Among these, early data from the CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395 combined with letrozole for HR+/HER2- breast cancer shows that 98% of the 58 patients experienced treatment-related adverse events, primarily grade 1-2 gastrointestinal reactions (the incidence of diarrhea increases with dose, reaching 30% grade 3 diarrhea in the 600mg group). Compared to existing standard therapies or other CDK4 candidates, the drug has lower hematologic toxicity but relatively higher gastrointestinal toxicity, requiring continuous monitoring. Additionally, the GPC3x4-1BB bispecific antibody BGB-B2033 showed controllable liver toxicity (8% of patients experienced grade 3 TR-TEAEs) and a 20.3% objective response rate (ORR) in hepatocellular carcinoma patients. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK, Buy): Key updates include progress on two ADC drugs. The EGFR ADC (SYS6010) in a Phase II trial for advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma showed a confirmed ORR of 35%, a disease control rate (DCR) of 67.5%, and a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 4.6 months among 40 evaluable patients; safety-wise, 97.9% of patients experienced TRAEs, with 64.6% being ≥ grade 3. The B7-H3 ADC (SYS6043) enrolled 502 patients with various advanced solid tumors, with management focusing on the breast cancer subgroup, which showed an ORR as high as 83.8% and a DCR of 100%, demonstrating strong differentiation potential. Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (600276 CH/1276 HK, Buy): As the company with the most extensive innovative oncology pipeline among its peers, it will present over 80 clinical results. The report specifically highlights four ADC assets: SHR-A1811 (HER2 ADC) for first-line HER2+ metastatic colorectal cancer, SHR-1826 (c-Met ADC) for advanced solid tumors (primarily lung cancer), SHR-A1904 (CLDN18.2 ADC) for advanced solid tumors (primarily gastric/gastroesophageal junction cancer), and SHR-A2102 (Nectin-4 ADC) for first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer. Although most are in early clinical stages, they have already shown controllable safety and encouraging efficacy signals.

Analysis framework

The report adopts an analytical framework of 'conference event-driven + core asset breakdown.' It first establishes a benchmark for industry prosperity by counting the number of oral presentations and LBAs from Chinese companies at ASCO, then breaks down the timing of key clinical readouts, expected data ranges, and preliminary safety/efficacy signals by company. This approach translates abstract 'innovation strength' into concrete, verifiable clinical endpoint indicators (such as HR, ORR, DCR, toxicity grading), helping investors quickly identify high-value catalysts amid a flood of conference information. For immature data, the report focuses on describing their relative advantages or disadvantages compared to competitors or standard therapies (e.g., the toxicity profile of BeiGene's CDK4 inhibitor) rather than interpreting absolute values in isolation, reflecting a comparative mindset in clinical development stages.

Methodology notes

• Event Game Theory and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Using major academic conferences (ASCO) as time nodes to pre-sort core data readout expectations and market consensus for covered stocks

  In biopharmaceutical investing, top academic conferences are key windows for validating clinical value. By anticipating which data will be market focal points, expected values, and potential expectation gaps after actual readouts, institutions help investors make more rational decisions around events rather than simply chasing trends.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Breakdown

  Breaking down clinical trial results into efficacy indicators (ORR/DCR/mPFS/HR) and safety indicators (TEAEs grading/specific organ toxicity) for independent evaluation

  The value of innovative drugs depends not only on 'whether they work' but also on 'how safe they are' and 'whether they have differentiated advantages compared to existing therapies.' In interpreting BeiGene's CDK4 inhibitor, the report examines both antitumor activity and specifically compares the trade-off between hematologic and gastrointestinal toxicity, which is a core basis for judging competitive landscapes in later stages of product lifecycles.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kangfang Biotech (9926 HK)

  HARMONi-6 OS data is the core focus of ASCO, directly determining short-term stock price catalyst strength

  Strengths

  Fully validated bispecific antibody platform, deep accumulation in the HARMONi series studies

  Weaknesses

  Current Neutral rating reflects market divergence on OS data or partial valuation reflection of expectations

  Comparison

  Compared to other Biotechs, its data readout certainty is higher but elasticity may be limited

  Risks

  OS HR significantly above 0.72 may lead to expectation gaps

• BeiGene (6160 HK/ONC US)

  Early solid tumor pipeline data expands the growth story, reducing reliance on hematologic malignancies alone

  Strengths

  Strong global clinical execution capability, clear advantage in CDK4 inhibitor hematologic toxicity

  Weaknesses

  Higher gastrointestinal toxicity may limit dose exploration or patient adherence

  Comparison

  Compared to pure hematologic malignancy companies, solid tumor layout provides additional upside

  Risks

  High GI toxicity leading to high discontinuation rates may affect subsequent development pace

• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)

  ADC pipeline shows outstanding efficacy in blockbuster indications such as breast cancer, supporting valuation reconstruction

  Strengths

  SYS6043's 83.8% ORR in the BC subgroup is highly competitive, with clear differentiation positioning

  Weaknesses

  SYS6010's high proportion of ≥ grade 3 TRAEs in ESCC poses significant safety management challenges

  Comparison

  ADC progress and data quality lead among domestic traditional pharmaceutical companies

  Risks

  Poor ADC toxicity management may affect registration paths or commercial acceptance

• Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (600276 CH/1276 HK)

  Presentation of over 80 studies reflects platform-type innovation capability, strengthening long-term investment logic

  Strengths

  Pipeline covers multiple hot targets such as HER2/c-Met/CLDN18.2/Nectin-4, dispersing risks

  Weaknesses

  Most ADCs are in early stages, with a time lag before commercial contribution

  Comparison

  Pipeline breadth significantly surpasses most peers, with stronger resilience against single project failure risks

  Risks

  Although early data is positive, small sample sizes mean subsequent validation remains uncertain

Key data

• Number of ASCO Chinese Oral Presentations94A record high, reflecting the increasing weight of Chinese oncology innovative drug R&D
• Number of ASCO Chinese LBAs12A record high, representing high-quality breakthrough research results
• Kangfang Biotech HARMONi-6 OS Expected HR0.70-0.72General market expectation range, with optimistic expectations reaching 0.68-0.70
• BeiGene BGB-43395 Grade 3 Diarrhea Incidence (600mg Group)30%Gastrointestinal toxicity increases with dose, requiring close attention
• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group SYS6043 Breast Cancer Subgroup ORR83.8%DCR reaches 100%, showing strong differentiation potential
• Number of Studies Presented by Hengrui Pharmaceuticals at ASCO>80The most extensive coverage of innovative oncology pipelines among peers

Impact & implications

The report believes that the explosive presentation of Chinese data at the 2026 ASCO conference will further solidify global capital markets' recognition of Chinese oncology innovative drug companies. For specific companies: if Kangfang Biotech's HARMONi-6 OS data meets or exceeds expectations, it will be a key catalyst for valuation reshaping; although BeiGene's early solid tumor pipeline data is immature, if it can prove that its CDK4 inhibitor has differentiated safety features, it will open a new growth curve; the excellent performance of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's ADC pipeline in high-demand indications such as breast cancer is expected to accelerate its transformation narrative from a traditional pharmaceutical company to an innovative biopharma; Hengrui Pharmaceuticals' 'platform-type' advantage formed by its pipeline breadth, with parallel advancements in multiple technological routes such as ADCs, further solidifies its long-term competitiveness. Overall, this conference is an important milestone for Chinese innovative drugs transitioning from 'following' to 'leading.'

Risks

• Clinical data readouts falling short of market expectations may lead to stock price volatility
• New drug safety issues (e.g., gastrointestinal toxicity, liver toxicity) may affect development progress
• Dense information at ASCO may lead to market oversight or misinterpretation of important data
• Limited sample sizes in early clinical data may lead to variability in subsequent validation results

What to watch

• Actual HR value and statistical significance of Kangfang Biotech's HARMONi-6 OS data
• Gastrointestinal toxicity tolerance and dose optimization strategies for different dose groups of BeiGene's BGB-43395
• Maturity of CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's SYS6043 breast cancer subgroup data and subsequent registration plans
• Persistence of early efficacy signals and stability of safety profiles for Hengrui Pharmaceuticals' various ADC assets