Rising NOA penetration and cockpit-driving integrated solutions drive Horizon Robotics growth expectations

Overview

This report is a summary of Goldman Sachs' reception of Horizon Robotics during the Asia Communacopia + Technology conference in Hong Kong on May 18-19, 2026. Key topics include the company’s growth outlook, upcoming and recently launched product plans, and the convergence trend between autonomous driving and intelligent cockpit systems. The report argues that continued penetration of higher-end AD/ADAS functions in mainstream models, NOA expansion into lower-priced vehicles, overseas expansion by Chinese automakers, and cockpit-driving integrated solutions that lower OEM costs are the main drivers of future growth.

Core views

The core views of the report are as follows: First, Horizon Robotics management expects shipment volume and ASP growth to remain steady, mainly driven by higher penetration of higher-level AD/ADAS functions and shipments of higher-end AD chips. Second, Highway/City NOA functions are becoming more common in mainstream vehicles in China and are expected to further move down-market into more affordable models, thereby boosting demand for the company’s chips and solutions. Third, the company recently launched the Horizon Starry chip and KaKaClaw OS, aiming to integrate autonomous driving and intelligent cockpit functions on a single platform while reducing costs for components such as memory, PCB, and cooling. Fourth, given current hardware architecture and automaker organizational constraints, management expects software integration to progress faster than hardware integration.

Analysis framework

The report primarily uses a meeting summary and management discussion points to analyze product roadmap, penetration rates, shipment volume, ASP, customer costs, and valuation assumptions. On valuation, Goldman Sachs applies an EV/EBITDA multiple approach, using the company’s 2029E EBITDA as the basis, referencing the relationship between peer EBITDA growth and trading EV/EBITDA multiples, applying 28.0x EV/EBITDA and discounting back to 2026E at an 11.5% cost of equity to derive a 12-month target price of HK$15.30.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodEV/EBITDA multiple method

  Derive enterprise value from forward EBITDA and peer trading multiples, then discount back to the target year.

  Goldman Sachs uses the company’s 2029E EBITDA, applies a 28.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, and discounts it back to 2026E using an 11.5% COE to arrive at a 12-month target price of HK$15.30.

• Investment factorGS Factor Profile

  Compare stocks with the market and peers across Growth, Financial Returns, Multiple, and Integrated dimensions.

  This framework uses Goldman Sachs analyst forecasts to standardize and rank indicators such as sales growth, EBITDA growth, EPS growth, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and valuation multiples, and then produces a composite percentile ranking.

• M&A scenarioM&A Rank

  Assess the probability that a company becomes an acquisition target using qualitative and quantitative factors.

  Goldman Sachs rates coverage companies from 1 to 3, where 1 indicates high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; only 1 or 2 are typically assigned an M&A component in the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Horizon Robotics (9660.HK)

  The subject company of the report, benefiting from the autonomous driving and cockpit-driving integration trend.

  Strengths

  Higher penetration of higher-level AD/ADAS, NOA down-market expansion, overseas growth, and higher-end AD chip shipments are driving volume and price growth; the cockpit-driving integrated solution can lower OEM total costs.

  Weaknesses

  Hardware architecture and automaker organizational structure may slow full cockpit-driving integration deployment.

  Comparison

  Valuation uses the relationship between peer EBITDA growth and trading EV/EBITDA multiples as a reference, with a target multiple of 28.0x 2029E EV/EBITDA.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, pricing pressure in the automotive supply chain, slower-than-expected product mix upgrade, slower-than-expected customer expansion, and supply chain risks caused by geopolitical tensions.

Key data

• Meeting time and locationMay 18-19, 2026, Hong KongGoldman Sachs Asia Communacopia + Technology conference.
• 12-month target priceHK$15.30Based on 28.0x EV/EBITDA on 2029E EBITDA and discounted back to 2026E.
• Valuation discount rateCOE 11.5%Includes a 6.5% equity risk premium, a 3.0% risk-free rate, and beta of 1.3.
• Disclosure priceHK$5.97The Horizon Robotics price shown in the company-specific disclosure.
• Rating historyBuy since December 1, 2024The chart shows the rating after current analyst coverage as B.
• Product solutionHorizon Starry chip and KaKaClaw OSUsed for cockpit-driving integration, supporting natural-language commands and connecting autonomous driving and intelligent cockpit systems.

Impact & implications

If NOA and higher-level AD/ADAS functions continue to penetrate mainstream and lower-priced models, Horizon Robotics' chip shipments and solution demand may continue to grow; at the same time, higher-end AD chip shipments should help sustain ASP expansion. If the cockpit-driving integrated solution is adopted by OEMs, it could strengthen customer appeal by lowering total costs for memory, PCB, cooling, and other components, and help the company extend from a hardware chip supplier toward a software-hardware integrated platform. However, hardware and organizational constraints mean the pace of integration may first be reflected at the software layer.

Risks

• Competition intensity or automotive supply chain pricing pressure may be higher than expected, especially in a slower demand environment, which could compress profitability.
• Slower-than-expected product mix upgrade toward AD may affect ASP growth.
• Slower-than-expected expansion of the customer base may limit shipment growth.
• Supply chain risks from geopolitical tensions may affect production and delivery.
• Cockpit-driving hardware integration may be constrained by existing hardware architecture and automaker organizational structure, causing deployment to lag software integration.

What to watch

• The pace of NOA penetration in China’s mainstream and lower-priced vehicle models.
• The share of high-end AD chip shipments and changes in ASP.
• Adoption of Horizon Starry chip and KaKaClaw OS by OEM customers.
• The impact of Chinese automakers' overseas expansion on the company’s shipment volume.
• Automotive supply chain pricing pressure, competitive landscape, and geopolitical supply chain risks.