Goldman Sachs maintains Buy on RoboTechnik: 1Q26 revenue missed expectations but gross margin was slightly better, with growth in optical communication equipment offsetting photovoltaic weakness

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' review of RoboTechnik (300757.SZ)'s first-quarter results. The company's 1Q26 revenue came in below expectations, mainly due to continued weakness in photovoltaic demand; however, gross margin was slightly better than expected, reflecting an improved product mix. Goldman Sachs believes that optical products will ramp up in subsequent quarters along with expansion in SiPh optical modules, CPO equipment, and OCS-related production lines, and that the company remains one of the main beneficiaries of the optical innovation cycle.

Core views

The core view is that short-term profits are under pressure, but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged. Negative factors include weak photovoltaic demand, a 1Q26 operating loss, higher operating costs following the Ficontec acquisition, and persistently high R&D expenses for new products; positive factors include significant YoY growth in optical business revenue, gross margin remaining at a relatively high level, and the company's technology and customer base in CPO coupling and testing equipment, SiPh equipment, and automated OCS module production lines. Goldman Sachs therefore maintains its Buy rating and Rmb688 target price.

Analysis framework

The report combines actual first-quarter results, revisions to 2026-30E earnings forecasts, product-line demand judgments, and valuation modeling for its analysis. The valuation uses a target P/E of 50.0x on 2031E EPS, discounted to 2027E at an 11.3% cost of equity; the target multiple references the PEG&M framework for consumer electronics peers, namely the relationship between 2026E P/E and 2027E net profit growth and operating margin.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsdiscounted_p/e

  Discounted P/E valuation

  Goldman Sachs applies a target P/E of 50.0x to 2031E EPS and discounts it to 2027E at 11.3% COE, deriving a 12-month target price of Rmb688.

• Valuation methodspeg&m

  PEG&M peer correlation

  The target P/E references the relationship between peers' 2026E P/E and their 2027E YoY net profit growth and operating margin; corresponding assumptions for RoboTechnik include 39% YoY net profit growth in 2032E and 24% OPM in 2032E.

• factor_profilegs_factor_profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  The GS Factor Profile compares a stock's position versus the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite metrics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• RoboTechnik(300757.SZ)

  Core covered name

  Strengths

  It has leading technological advantages in SiPh/CPO/OCS equipment, with a self-developed motion control system featuring up to 5nm resolution, machine vision algorithms, and Process Control Master (PCM) software, and it has already served leading global IDM, foundry, OSAT, and IC design customers.

  Weaknesses

  1Q26 revenue was below expectations and photovoltaic demand was weak; post-acquisition operating costs for Ficontec rose, while R&D expenses for new products remained high.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs compares it with covered peers in consumer electronics and technology hardware, and uses the peer PEG&M framework to determine the target P/E multiple.

  Risks

  Intensifying market competition, weaker-than-expected end demand for optical connectivity, and a more severe-than-expected downturn in the photovoltaic market.

• Optical segment

  Main growth driver

  Strengths

  First-quarter revenue grew significantly YoY, and is expected to continue ramping up in subsequent quarters alongside capacity expansion for SiPh optical modules and CPO equipment.

  Weaknesses

  Growth depends on the pace of AI server connectivity, optical module, and optical engine upgrades.

  Comparison

  Relative to the photovoltaic business, the optical business is the key support for Goldman Sachs maintaining its revenue growth outlook.

  Risks

  End demand for optical connectivity or the pace of customer capacity expansion may come in below expectations.

• Photovoltaic segment

  Short-term drag factor

  Strengths

  The source material did not provide clear positive catalysts.

  Weaknesses

  Management noted that photovoltaic demand remained weak, which was an important reason for the pressure on 1Q26 revenue.

  Comparison

  It diverges from the optical business: optical is growing while photovoltaic is weak.

  Risks

  A further deterioration in the photovoltaic market downcycle would drag on revenue and earnings recovery.

Key data

• 1Q26 revenueRmb164mnUp 69% YoY, down 69% QoQ, and 43% below Goldman Sachs' forecast.
• 1Q26 gross margin36.3%Above Goldman Sachs' forecast of 35.8%, and close to 4Q25's 37.8%.
• 1Q26 operating lossRmb38mnRevenue was under pressure and the expense ratio was relatively high.
• 1Q26 net lossRmb39mnWeaker than Goldman Sachs' previous net profit forecast of Rmb29mn.
• 2026E revenueRmb1,455mnGoldman Sachs largely maintained its full-year revenue forecast unchanged.
• 2026E net profitRmb139mnDown 14% from the previous forecast.
• 2026-28E net profit CAGR173%Mainly driven by volume growth in CPO-, SiPh-, and OCS-related equipment.
• 12-month target priceRmb688Represents about 36.0% upside from the current price of Rmb506.05.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, the report downplays the short-term impact of the first-quarter revenue miss and places greater emphasis on the medium- to long-term earnings elasticity brought by the optical innovation cycle. If adoption of CPO technology in AI server connectivity accelerates, OCS module automated production line orders expand, and upgrades to 800G+ pluggable modules and 1.6T+ optical engines continue to lift equipment ASP and margins, RoboTechnik's earnings recovery upside could be substantial. However, as long as photovoltaic demand has not improved materially and expense investment remains high, quarterly earnings volatility may persist.

Risks

• Market competition is more intense than expected.
• End demand for optical connectivity is below expectations.
• The photovoltaic market downcycle is worse than expected.
• Post-acquisition operating costs for Ficontec and R&D expenses for new products continue to exceed expectations.
• Quarterly revenue and profit are relatively sensitive to the ramp-up pace of optical equipment.

What to watch

• The pace of revenue ramp-up in the Optical business in subsequent quarters.
• Progress of capacity expansion for SiPh optical modules and CPO equipment.
• Execution of orders for automated OCS module manufacturing lines, especially expansion following the initial order from the Swiss customer.
• Whether photovoltaic demand stabilizes, and its impact on revenue mix and gross margin.
• Whether the OPEX ratio can decline from the high level seen in 1Q26.
• The boost from upgrades to 800G+ pluggable modules and 1.6T+ optical engines on equipment ASP and margins.