Nomura Export Leading Index Hits 16-Year High as Asian Export Sentiment Surges
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Nomura Export Leading Index Hits 16-Year High as Asian Export Sentiment Surges
The Nomura Asia Export Leading Index (NELI) rose to 121 in July, reaching its highest level in 16 years, signaling that the Asian export super-cycle will extend into Q3, driven jointly by tech and manufacturing demand.
- The NELI surged to 121 in July, reaching its highest reading in 16 years.
- Indicators suggest the Asian export super-cycle will continue through Q3.
- The AI tech upcycle is the primary driver, but manufacturing and China demand are also improving.
- The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to ease supply chain pressures, further broadening export growth.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report focuses on the latest developments in the Nomura Asia Export Leading Index (NELI). The index surged to 121 in July 2026, hitting a 16-year record high. This signal indicates that export growth in Asia (ex-Japan) is in a robust super-cycle, a trend expected to persist through Q3. The report notes that while the AI tech cycle remains the primary engine, improvements in broader manufacturing and Chinese demand have made growth drivers more diversified. Additionally, expectations regarding geopolitical factors, such as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to positively impact global aggregate demand.
Core views
The core view centers on the significant strengthening and broadening of Asian export momentum. As a forward-looking indicator with a three-month lead time, the NELI's rise to a high of 121 not only confirms the current export boom but also signals robust performance over the coming quarters. Previously, Asian export growth relied primarily on the AI tech-related upcycle, but recent data shows this growth is becoming more comprehensive. In terms of drivers, a strong rebound in tech indicators remains central, but improvements in overall manufacturing activity and a recovery in Chinese demand also provide vital support. This implies that export growth is no longer solely dependent on semiconductors or specific tech sub-sectors but is diffusing across broader manufacturing sectors. Regarding the external environment, the report specifically highlights expectations for the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This event is expected to alleviate long-standing supply chain pressures; although normalization may take several months, it should help reduce economic uncertainty and boost global aggregate demand for goods such as capital equipment, thereby supporting the Asian export upcycle in moving beyond the constraints of the tech sector to achieve a broader recovery.
Analysis framework
The institution utilizes its proprietary forward-looking macro indicator, the 'Nomura Asia Export Leading Index' (NELI), for analysis. The core of this methodology lies in synthesizing multiple high-frequency leading indicators to forecast overall Asian export trends, rather than relying on lagging official export data distorted by base effects. Specifically, the NELI comprises nine components which, after Z-score standardization, are weighted and summed using the inverse of mean squared error as weights. These nine components include: the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, China's total imports, China's imports from Asia, global semiconductor sales, the US Manufacturing ISM Index, S&P Emerging Markets Manufacturing PMI, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, South Korea's semiconductor exports, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. This multi-dimensional, cross-regional synthesis method captures momentum changes in underlying Asian export growth more acutely and has successfully predicted major turning points in the past.
Methodology notes
Composite Leading Index Construction Method
Constructs a comprehensive leading indicator by standardizing and weighting multiple relevant high-frequency leading indicators (such as PMI, semiconductor sales, shipping indices) to forecast macro variables (e.g., exports) three months in advance, overcoming the noise and lag inherent in single indicators.
Transmission from Tech Cycle to Broad Manufacturing
Analysis indicates that export growth is spreading from the upstream AI tech segment (e.g., semiconductors) to broader manufacturing and capital goods, reflecting the transmission logic of industry sentiment along the supply chain and across horizontal categories.
Key data
- NELI Reading121July 2026 data, hitting a 16-year high
- Lead Time3 MonthsLead time of the NELI relative to Asian export growth
- Coverage RegionAsia (ex-Japan)Includes China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand
Impact & implications
The report suggests that the historic high in the NELI implies that Asian export-oriented economies will maintain strong growth momentum over the next quarter. For investors, this is positive not only for tech sectors like semiconductors but also hints at potential recovery opportunities in broader manufacturing and capital goods industries. With easing supply chain pressures and bolstered global aggregate demand, the Asian export upcycle is poised to become more sustainable and diversified, reducing risks associated with volatility in any single industry.
Risks
- The supply chain normalization process may take several months, leaving near-term uncertainties.
- Changes in geopolitical events (e.g., conditions in the Strait of Hormuz) could affect expectations.
What to watch
- Whether actual Asian export data in Q3 validates NELI forecasts.
- Growth trends in global capital goods demand.
- Sustainability of improved demand from China.