The AI PCB upcycle remains intact, with capacity, yield, and delivery execution determining share

Overview

This report summarizes J.P. Morgan's key findings after field research on the AI PCB industry chain in China's Greater Bay Area. Research targets included PCB equipment suppliers, PCB manufacturers, and industry experts. The report believes the upward trend in AI PCB demand remains intact, with strong orders, multi-year visibility, mass production of new platforms, optical module specification upgrades, and domestic AI infrastructure expansion jointly supporting industry growth.

Core views

The core view is that the growth logic of the AI PCB industry remains intact, but competitive outcomes depend not only on entering the supply chain, but on the ability to achieve stable yields, material assurance, capacity ramp-up, and fast delivery. Vera Rubin PCB has already moved into mass production; Kyber NVL144 is still under testing, and even if delayed, AI PCB TAM in 2028 could still be partially offset by stronger demand from existing NVDA generations and increased penetration of ASIC solutions.

Analysis framework

The report uses industry-chain research and supply-chain cross-validation, focusing on order visibility, mass-production progress, architectural testing bottlenecks, sources of new demand, CCL supply, and the ability to pass through price increases, and maps these factors to PCB manufacturers' market share, gross margin, and delivery capability.

Methodology notes

• Industry Chain ResearchSupply Chain Interviews and On-Site Research

  Validate orders, capacity, yields, and material conditions by visiting PCB equipment suppliers, manufacturers, and industry experts.

  This method is suitable for judging whether the AI PCB cycle will continue, as well as differences in execution among suppliers in the supply chain.

• Competitiveness AnalysisMass Production Delivery Capability Framework

  Market share follows high-quality large-volume delivery capability.

  The report views yield stability, material readiness, capacity support, and delivery speed as the key variables determining suppliers' ultimate share.

• Cost and Margin AnalysisCCL Price Pressure Divergence Analysis

  Supply-demand conditions, price increase magnitude, and cost pass-through ability differ between high-end and low-end CCL.

  Supply and contract price increases for high-end AI CCL are relatively controllable, while shortages and price increases in low-end CCL are more severe, and PCB manufacturers with higher exposure to consumer electronics and automotive may face greater pressure.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Victory Giant Technology - H (2476.HK)

  Leading AI PCB manufacturer and key company discussed in the report

  Strengths

  Holds a leading position in AI PCB, with capacity expansion progressing as planned and expected to support large-volume deliveries.

  Weaknesses

  Still needs to continuously prove yield stability, material assurance, and delivery speed, while also facing competition after new suppliers join mass production.

  Comparison

  The report believes that entry by new suppliers does not necessarily imply share loss for existing leaders; ultimate share depends more on the quality of scaled delivery.

  Risks

  Kyber NVL144 delays, CCL cost pressure, capacity execution below expectations, volatility in AI server demand.

• AI PCB industry chain

  Core industry asset of the report

  Strengths

  Strong orders, multi-year demand visibility, Vera Rubin mass production, optical module upgrades, and domestic AI infrastructure expansion jointly support demand.

  Weaknesses

  High-end manufacturing has high barriers, with yields, materials, and system-level validation constituting bottlenecks.

  Comparison

  Supply-demand and pricing pressure for high-end AI PCB are relatively controllable, while low-end PCB is more clearly affected by CCL shortages and price hikes.

  Risks

  Delays in architectural transitions, overly rapid supplier capacity expansion, material shortages, changes in customer demand cadence.

• CCL supply chain

  Key upstream material affecting PCB manufacturers' gross margins and delivery capability

  Strengths

  Supply of CCL for high-end AI applications is relatively manageable, and customers place more emphasis on supply assurance and allow price renegotiation.

  Weaknesses

  Low-end CCL supply is tight and price increases are more severe.

  Comparison

  Pressure on high-end CCL is limited, while low-end CCL has a greater impact on PCB manufacturers with high exposure to consumer and automotive markets.

  Risks

  Further price increases, expanding supply shortages, and inability of PCB manufacturers to pass through costs.

Key data

• Report Date2026-07-12The document date is 20260712, and market prices are as of the close on 2026-07-10.
• Research ScopePCB equipment suppliers, manufacturers, and industry experts in China's Greater Bay AreaUsed to verify AI PCB orders, capacity, mass production, and material supply conditions.
• Key CompanyVictory Giant Technology - H (2476.HK / HK$230.20 / OW)The report maintains a positive view on its AI PCB leadership and capacity expansion.
• Key PlatformNVDA Vera Rubin PCBThe report states it has entered mass production, with both existing and new PCB suppliers participating in production.
• Architecture Pending ValidationKyber NVL144Still under testing, with bottlenecks including backplane complexity, warpage control, material selection, and system-level validation.
• Sources of Incremental Demand1.6T and faster optical modules, CoWoP-related platform PCBs, domestic AI infrastructureThese areas will drive demand for the mSAP process and high-end AI PCBs.
• Rating DistributionJ.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage: Overweight 53%, Neutral 36%, Underweight 12%The disclosure table states that percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the AI PCB cycle still has upward momentum, but industry differentiation will intensify. Manufacturers with stable high-end CCL supply, yield control, capacity expansion, and large-volume delivery capability are more likely to maintain share and margins; manufacturers with higher exposure to low-end PCBs for consumer electronics and automotive, and weaker ability to pass through costs, may be dragged down by price hikes and shortages in low-end CCL.

Risks

• Delays in testing or mass production progress of the Kyber NVL144 architecture.
• Backplane complexity, warpage control, material selection, and system-level validation may limit progress of the new architecture.
• The entry of new suppliers into Vera Rubin PCB mass production may change the initial share allocation.
• Sharp price increases and supply shortages in low-end CCL may compress margins for related PCB manufacturers.
• There is uncertainty around the pace at which domestic AI infrastructure demand will materialize.
• If demand for AI servers, ASICs, and optical modules falls short of expectations, AI PCB TAM will be affected.

What to watch

• Subsequent mass production ramp-up, yields, and supplier share changes for Vera Rubin PCB.
• Progress in testing the Kyber NVL144 architecture and whether it affects the AI PCB demand structure in 2028.
• Shipment growth of 1.6T and faster optical modules and demand growth for the mSAP process.
• Adoption pace of CoWoP-related platform PCB designs.
• Order contribution from domestic AI infrastructure construction and specification upgrades after 2027.
• Pricing, supply, and customer cost pass-through conditions for high-end and low-end CCL.
• Victory Giant Technology - H's performance in capacity expansion, material assurance, and large-volume delivery.