J&T Express's 1H26 Results Beat Expectations, with Regional Expansion and Improved Unit Profitability Supporting Higher Guidance

Overview

The report assesses J&T Express's 1H26 results, regional parcel volume guidance, 2H26 earnings trajectory, and valuation. Nomura believes revenue, adjusted EBIT, and unit profitability all exceeded expectations, and that rapid growth and higher unit profitability in Southeast Asia and other markets will continue to improve earnings. It therefore raised its earnings forecasts and maintained its Buy rating.

Core views

J&T Express's 1H26 results exceeded both market and Nomura expectations. Revenue increased 40% YoY to USD 7.7bn, 7% above Bloomberg consensus and 5% above Nomura's forecast. The beat was mainly attributable to higher-than-expected average revenue per parcel in China and Southeast Asia. Adjusted EBIT increased 1.2x YoY to USD 434mn, 6% and 1% above consensus and Nomura's forecast, respectively. Blended unit EBIT maintained its upward trend, increasing 77% YoY to USD 2.5 cents per parcel, indicating simultaneous improvements in revenue quality and unit economics. Based on strong parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia and other markets in 1H26, the company raised its FY26 full-year guidance: the YoY parcel volume growth target for Southeast Asia was raised from 50% to 50%-55%, while that for other markets was raised from 90% to 100%-120%. In China, although industry-wide parcel volume growth is expected to slow, the company remains confident in achieving 8%-10% YoY growth. This is slightly more conservative than its previous guidance of approximately 10%, but it is still expected to outperform the industry average. Blended unit EBIT guidance was raised from USD 2.4 cents per parcel to USD 2.4-2.6 cents, partly due to economies of scale from higher parcel volumes. Nomura expects J&T Express's 2H26F parcel volume to increase 19% YoY, below the 25% growth recorded in 1H26, although each region still has clear growth drivers. China parcel volume is expected to grow 8%, mainly through further penetration into underpenetrated verticals such as 3C products and beauty products, as well as remote areas. Southeast Asia is expected to grow 41%, supported by higher e-commerce sales on partner platforms such as TikTok Shop and expansion in non-platform parcels. Other markets are expected to grow 120%, driven by deeper cooperation with cross-border and local e-commerce companies, as well as geographic expansion into regions such as Colombia. On earnings, Nomura expects blended unit EBIT to rise from USD 2.5 cents per parcel in 1H26 to USD 2.6 cents in 2H26F. The main mechanism is a shift in the order mix toward markets outside China, which have higher unit profitability. As a result, overall adjusted EBIT in 2H26F is expected to increase 37% YoY to USD 508mn, while adjusted net profit is expected to rise 53% YoY to USD 411mn. The company believes Indonesia's antitrust investigation into TikTok Shop will have a limited impact on its business outlook and stated that it has no equity financing plans in the near term. The report also notes that the company is exploring green logistics by using new-energy vehicles and high-capacity vehicles and promoting reusable "Red Box" transit containers, while continuing to expand network coverage, including in rural areas. Nomura raised its FY26F and FY27F adjusted net profit forecasts by 9% and 1%, respectively, to reflect higher parcel volume and unit EBIT assumptions. The report reiterates its Buy rating and maintains its HKD 14 target price. The valuation benchmark was changed to 14x FY27F EV/EBIT from 18x FY26F EV/EBIT previously. This valuation incorporates a 33% CAGR in adjusted EBIT over FY26-28F. The target price implies 16x FY27F P/E, above the current 11x, and 39.4% upside from the HKD 10.04 closing price on August 20, 2026.

Analysis framework

Nomura first compared 1H26 revenue and adjusted EBIT with Bloomberg consensus and its own forecasts, identifying higher revenue per parcel and improved unit profitability in China and Southeast Asia as the sources of the beat. It then broke down parcel volume growth, business drivers, and margin differences across China, Southeast Asia, and other markets, and used these factors to forecast 2H26 parcel volume, unit EBIT, and profit. Finally, it raised its FY26/27F earnings forecasts and derived the target price using an FY27F EV/EBIT multiple.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposition of parcel volume, average revenue per parcel, and unit EBIT

  The report decomposes changes in revenue and profit into parcel volume, average revenue per parcel, and EBIT per parcel to explain the better-than-expected 1H26 performance and project 2H26 earnings.

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkEconomies of scale / learning curve

  Economies of scale from parcel volume growth

  The report believes higher parcel volumes can dilute network and operating costs, partly explaining the increase in blended unit EBIT guidance from USD 2.4 cents to USD 2.4-2.6 cents.

• Valuation Method

  EV/EBIT relative valuation

  Nomura uses 14x FY27F EV/EBIT as its primary valuation method to derive the HKD 14 target price, while also considering a 33% CAGR in adjusted EBIT over FY26-28F and the corresponding FY27F P/E.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• J&T Express (1519 HK)

  The direct subject of the report; Nomura reiterated its Buy rating and maintained its HKD 14 target price.

  Strengths

  Leading position in Southeast Asia, multi-regional network expansion, rapid parcel volume growth, higher-than-expected revenue per parcel, and continued improvement in unit EBIT.

  Weaknesses

  Parcel volume growth in China's express delivery industry is expected to slow, and growth in the China business will require further expansion into underpenetrated verticals and remote areas.

  Comparison

  The company expects its China parcel volume growth to continue outperforming the industry average; the HKD 14 target price implies 16x FY27F P/E, versus the current 11x.

  Risks

  Intensifying market competition, lower-than-expected parcel volume growth, weaker-than-expected cost optimization, and country-specific regulatory risks.

Key data

• 1H26 RevenueUSD 7.7bnIncreased 40% YoY, 7% above Bloomberg consensus and 5% above Nomura's forecast
• 1H26 Adjusted EBITUSD 434mnIncreased 1.2x YoY, 6% and 1% above consensus and Nomura's forecast, respectively
• 1H26 Blended Unit EBITUSD 2.5 cents/parcelIncreased 77% YoY
• FY26 Southeast Asia Parcel Volume Growth Guidance50%-55% YoY growthPreviously 50%
• FY26 Other Markets Parcel Volume Growth Guidance100%-120% YoY growthPreviously 90%
• FY26 China Parcel Volume Growth Guidance8%-10% YoY growthPreviously 10%; the company expects to continue outperforming the industry average
• Blended Unit EBIT GuidanceUSD 2.4-2.6 cents/parcelPreviously USD 2.4 cents
• 2H26F Parcel Volume+19% YoYCompared with 25% YoY growth in 1H26
• 2H26F Regional Parcel Volume GrowthChina +8%, Southeast Asia +41%, Other Markets +120%Driven respectively by penetration into verticals and remote areas, growth in platform and non-platform parcels, and cross-border cooperation and geographic expansion
• 2H26F Blended Unit EBITUSD 2.6 cents/parcelAbove USD 2.5 cents in 1H26
• 2H26F Adjusted EBITUSD 508mnIncreased 37% YoY
• 2H26F Adjusted Net ProfitUSD 411mnIncreased 53% YoY
• Adjusted Net Profit Forecast RevisionsFY26F +9%; FY27F +1%Reflecting higher parcel volume and unit EBIT assumptions
• Valuation Benchmark14x FY27F EV/EBITPreviously 18x FY26F EV/EBIT; FY26-28F adjusted EBIT CAGR is 33%
• Target Price-Implied P/E16x FY27F P/ECurrent valuation is 11x
• Target Price and Current PriceHKD 14.00 / HKD 10.04Current price as of August 20, 2026, implying 39.4% upside
• Market CapitalizationUSD 12,349.2mnKey data listed in the report
• Free Float and Three-Month Average Daily Trading Value72.0% / USD 51.2mnMarket trading data listed in the report
• Share Price Performance1 month +7.6%, 3 months +13.8%, 12 months -8.1%In HKD; relative to the Hang Seng Index: +5.4%, +13.6%, and -10.3%, respectively

Impact & implications

The report believes J&T Express's growth focus is increasingly shifting toward Southeast Asia and other markets with high growth and high unit profitability. Economies of scale from parcel volume expansion and an improved regional order mix are expected to increase both unit EBIT and overall profit; this is also the core basis for Nomura's earnings forecast upgrades and maintained HKD 14 target price.

Risks

• Intensifying market competition could hinder achievement of the target price.
• Parcel volume growth may fall below expectations.
• Cost optimization may be weaker than expected.
• Regulatory changes in different countries may affect the business; the report discusses Indonesia's antitrust investigation into TikTok Shop.

What to watch

• Whether FY26 parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia, other markets, and China can reach the latest guidance of 50%-55%, 100%-120%, and 8%-10%, respectively.
• Whether blended unit EBIT can rise to USD 2.6 cents per parcel in 2H26F and fall within the full-year guidance range of USD 2.4-2.6 cents.
• Progress in China's underpenetrated verticals and remote areas, Southeast Asia's non-platform parcels, and geographic expansion in other markets.
• Whether the actual impact of Indonesia's antitrust investigation into TikTok Shop on the company's business remains limited.