May MLCC exports rose 18.6% y-y, with a sharp increase in Hong Kong demand indicating accelerating trader restocking

Overview

This report tracks Japan's electronic components trade data for May 2026, with a core focus on the export performance of MLCCs, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, inductors, and fixed resistors. The data show that MLCC exports continued to grow year-on-year, with destinations such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Thailand making clearly larger contributions, reflecting both restocking by Greater China traders and demand from AI server-related applications.

Core views

Nomura's core view is that improving MLCC demand is not driven solely by AI servers, but jointly by trader restocking, AI server power supplies, network equipment, and EV-related demand. The sharp increase in exports to Hong Kong indicates that short-term orders may include one-off restocking factors; record-high shares for Taiwan and Thailand indicate rising weight in the AI server and power supply chain; however, judging from Taiwan's capacitor import mix, MLCC growth is weaker than that of tantalum capacitors and aluminum electrolytic capacitors, so it is still difficult to prove that overall MLCC supply and demand have broadly tightened because of AI demand.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses Japan Ministry of Finance trade statistics, JEITA global shipment data, and Taiwan trade statistics to compare year-on-year and month-on-month changes in export value, destination mix, U.S. dollar-based trends, average value-added, and capacitor import structure, while explaining demand changes in conjunction with application scenarios such as AI servers, power supply PSUs, EVs, and network equipment.

Methodology notes

• industry data trackingtrade statistics year-on-year and regional breakdown

  use export value and destination changes to judge demand sources

  By looking at Japan's MLCC export growth rates and shares to regions such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, China, and Singapore, the report distinguishes trader restocking, AI server-related demand, and recovery in end applications.

• product mix analysisaverage value-added indicator

  use $/g to measure MLCC product mix and profit correlation

  The report treats average MLCC value-added as a product mix indicator and notes that it is correlated with manufacturers' gross margins; this indicator rose slightly in May, showing increased contribution from higher value-added applications.

• supply-demand assessmentcross-validation using Taiwan capacitor import structure

  use Taiwan capacitor import value to assess the strength of AI server component demand

  Taiwan is an important node in the AI server supply chain. The report compares import changes in MLCCs, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, and tantalum capacitors to judge whether AI server demand for different capacitor categories is strong enough to cause supply-demand tightness.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MLCC manufacturers

  directly benefit from MLCC export growth and product mix improvement

  Strengths

  Year-on-year export growth, rising average value-added, and improving demand from AI server and EV-related applications.

  Weaknesses

  Overall MLCC supply and demand have not yet tightened significantly due to AI demand alone, and some orders may come from short-term trader restocking.

  Comparison

  Compared with tantalum capacitors and aluminum electrolytic capacitors, Taiwan's MLCC imports have risen less relative to the previous peak.

  Risks

  Order pullback after restocking ends, weaker-than-expected price recovery, and fluctuations in consumer electronics demand.

• High-voltage MLCC and AI server power supply PSU supply chain

  the report believes underlying demand may already exceed supply

  Strengths

  Expansion of high-voltage MLCC supply is relatively difficult, while demand is increasing for AI power supplies and server PSUs.

  Weaknesses

  Demand data can easily be mixed with trader inventory behavior, so the real pull from end demand needs further verification.

  Comparison

  Compared with ordinary MLCCs, high-voltage products are more likely to face structural supply constraints.

  Risks

  A slowdown in AI server build-out, changes in power architecture, and customer inventory adjustments.

• Aluminum electrolytic capacitors

  affected by export growth and material cost pass-through

  Strengths

  May exports were +26.5% y-y on a yen basis and +15.7% y-y on a U.S. dollar basis.

  Weaknesses

  Price increases may mainly reflect material costs such as aluminum foil rather than being entirely driven by improved end demand.

  Comparison

  Taiwan imports are up 64% relative to the previous peak, stronger than MLCCs but weaker than tantalum capacitors.

  Risks

  Material price volatility, incomplete cost pass-through, and slowing downstream demand.

• Fixed resistors

  part of the recovery in electronic component exports

  Strengths

  May exports were +28.0% y-y on a yen basis and +17.0% y-y on a U.S. dollar basis.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide sufficiently detailed sources of demand, so sustainability still needs to be observed.

  Comparison

  Growth on a yen basis was higher than for MLCCs and inductors.

  Risks

  Exchange-rate effects, fading end-market restocking, and unstable consumer electronics demand.

• Inductors

  passive component export improvement, but with weaker momentum

  Strengths

  May exports were +10.4% y-y on a yen basis, extending April's growth.

  Weaknesses

  Only +0.9% y-y on a U.S. dollar basis, indicating limited underlying growth strength.

  Comparison

  Growth was lower than for MLCCs, fixed resistors, and aluminum electrolytic capacitors.

  Risks

  Exchange-rate disruption, insufficient end demand, and reversal of the inventory cycle.

Key data

• May MLCC exports (yen basis)+18.6% y-yApril was +28.0%, March was +21.7%, and February was +8.0%.
• May MLCC exports to Hong Kong+55.0% y-ySignificantly higher than other major destinations, supporting the view of trader restocking in Greater China.
• May MLCC exports (U.S. dollar basis)+8.4% y-yGrowth on a yen basis was affected by exchange rates; USD/JPY was 158.3 in May.
• May inductor exports (yen basis)+10.4% y-y+0.9% y-y on a U.S. dollar basis.
• May fixed resistor exports (yen basis)+28.0% y-y+17.0% y-y on a U.S. dollar basis.
• May aluminum electrolytic capacitor exports (yen basis)+26.5% y-y+15.7% y-y on a U.S. dollar basis; the report believes prices may already reflect rising material costs such as aluminum foil.
• Taiwan MLCC export share16.9%Reached a record high, reflecting rising AI server-related demand.
• Thailand MLCC export share3.3%Reached a record high; Thailand is mainly associated with demand from the power supply chain.
• Outlook for combined Taiwan and Thailand sharearound 25%Nomura expects the combined share of the two countries could rise to around 25% by next spring.
• Average MLCC value-added$1.05/g$1.01/g last month, indicating a slight improvement in product mix.
• Taiwan May capacitor imports$296mnA record high, used to observe demand for AI server-related components.
• Taiwan May MLCC imports$191mnUp 24% versus the previous cycle peak, with growth lagging tantalum capacitors and aluminum electrolytic capacitors.
• Taiwan May tantalum capacitor imports$53mnUp 98% versus the previous cycle peak in August 2021.
• Taiwan May aluminum electrolytic capacitor imports$52mnUp 64% versus the previous cycle peak.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, demand signals are improving for the MLCC and passive component chain, especially in applications related to AI server power supplies, high-voltage MLCCs, EVs, and network equipment; however, because trader restocking may amplify short-term export data, investors need to distinguish between sustainable end demand and a one-off inventory cycle. The difficulty of increasing supply of high-voltage MLCCs may be a more persistent source of tightness.

Risks

• Orders related to Hong Kong and China may include one-off trader restocking, creating uncertainty over the sustainability of subsequent demand.
• Although AI server demand is rising, Taiwan's capacitor import structure is still insufficient to prove on its own that overall MLCC supply and demand have broadly tightened.
• Changes in the yen exchange rate can amplify or suppress yen-denominated export growth, so the U.S. dollar basis should also be monitored.
• Rising material costs such as aluminum foil may affect the pricing and profit pass-through of aluminum electrolytic capacitors.
• If demand for EVs, network equipment, and AI servers falls short of expectations, improvement in the high value-added product mix will weaken.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent growth in Japan's MLCC exports to Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, and Thailand continues.
• Whether the combined share of Taiwan and Thailand in MLCC exports can rise to around 25% as expected.
• Whether average MLCC value-added can continue to stay above $1.05/g and reflect product mix improvement.
• The relative changes in Taiwan's imports of MLCCs, tantalum capacitors, and aluminum electrolytic capacitors, to assess the extent of AI server demand spillover.
• Whether supply bottlenecks in high-voltage MLCCs used in AI server PSUs and AI power supplies become more explicit.