Nomura Raises Victory Giant's Target Price to 417 CNY, Bullish on AI PCB Upgrade and Global Expansion

Overview

This report is a rating adjustment by Nomura Securities for Victory Giant (300476.SZ). Following the release of Q1 2026 earnings, the firm maintains a 'Buy' rating and raises the A-share target price from 333 CNY to 417 CNY, implying ~24.9% upside. The core view is that the company is at the center of a new AI PCB upgrade cycle, serving as a core supplier for a leading global GPU client (likely NVIDIA), with strong demand for high-end HDI and HLC products. Despite short-term supply constraints for key equipment and materials, the Huizhou capacity expansion and recent HK IPO are expected to drive high growth in coming years, with FY26-28 revenue CAGR projected at 54% and net profit CAGR at 61%.

Core views

Demand Side: Deep ties to global AI compute leader, product mix continues to premiumize. The report notes Victory Giant is the top PCB supplier for a leading GPU client (likely NVIDIA), benefiting from its aggressive roadmap (including high-end HDI, Mid-plane, etc.). Nomura expects its wallet share in the next-gen Rubin platform to reach 50-55% in FY26-28F, contributing 38-40% of total sales. Additionally, penetration into ASIC client markets will unlock long-term growth, with non-NVIDIA AI PCB revenue CAGR projected at 71%. Overall, AI & HPC segment revenue is expected to grow at a 65% CAGR in FY26-28F, reaching 69% of total sales by FY28F. Supply Side: Effective supply chain management strengthens leadership, capacity expansion unlocks growth. Facing strong demand for AI PCB (especially HDI and high-layer count HLC) and shortages of key resources like laser equipment and fiberglass cloth, the report highlights the company's supply chain management as critical. Per Frost & Sullivan, its R&D and capacity investments have made it the global AI PCB leader with 13.8% market share in 1H25 (vs. 1.7% in 2024). Nomura projects HDI capacity to surge from 0.56 million sqm in FY25 to 2.97 million sqm in FY28, while HLC capacity expands from 8.60 million sqm to 10.25 million sqm, supporting global AI PCB expansion. Financials & Valuation: Full earnings upgrade, valuation returns to historical mean. Driven by robust AI PCB demand and capacity ramp, Nomura raises FY26-27F revenue by 4-14%, GPM by 2.4-4.3pp, and net profit by 5-23%, introducing FY28F forecasts (revenue/net profit up 45%/48% YoY). Current price implies 21.6x FY27F PE, below the 27x PE target. The new 417 CNY target is based on 27x FY27F EPS of 15.44 CNY, aligning with historical median PE, balancing growth and valuation. FY26F forecasts are slightly below consensus (due to cautious capacity expansion view), but FY27-28F are 2-5%/0-10% above consensus, reflecting stronger confidence in mid-to-long-term growth.

Analysis framework

The report employs a 'supply-demand matching + key client wallet share validation' framework. First, tracking downstream AI compute leaders' roadmaps (e.g., Rubin platform) to derive upstream PCB upgrade trends (HDI/HLC demand surge). Second, validating the company's wallet share and capacity plans as a core supplier, translating macro industry trends into specific revenue forecasts. Finally, assessing the strategic value of the HK IPO for global expansion. For valuation, historical median PE is used instead of pure DCF or high-growth premiums, reflecting growth-phase margin of safety—acknowledging growth while avoiding excessive future expectations, anchoring pricing rationality to historical norms.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply-demand framework

  AI PCB supply-demand mismatch analysis

  The report analyzes the conflict between strong demand for high-end AI PCB (HDI/HLC) and supply bottlenecks for key equipment/materials (lasers, fiberglass), arguing that firms with effective supply chain management and early capacity planning will gain excess market share and pricing power. This is key to understanding leader premiums in cyclical growth industries.

• Competition & Strategy FrameworkValue chain analysis

  Key client wallet share tracking

  In concentrated AI compute supply chains, merely 'entering the chain' is insufficient. The report introduces 'wallet share' (e.g., 50-55% in Rubin platform) to quantify actual penetration depth in core clients' procurement, reflecting binding strength and competitive barriers better than pure revenue growth.

• Valuation methodsPE/PEG valuation

  Historical median PE valuation anchor

  For high-growth tech manufacturing stocks, the report avoids extreme forward PE multiples, instead reverting to 'historical median PE (27x)' as the target benchmark. This implies that when fundamentals and growth are verifiable, historical valuation anchors are more meaningful than short-term sentiment-driven multiples, avoiding aggressive assumptions at cycle peaks.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Victory Giant (300476.SZ)

  Direct beneficiary: As NVIDIA Rubin platform's core PCB supplier, directly capturing HDI/HLC demand from AI server upgrades

  Strengths

  Global AI PCB leader (13.8% share in 1H25); Huizhou capacity expansion easing bottlenecks; HK IPO aiding globalization

  Weaknesses

  Execution risks during 2026 capacity ramp; high reliance on single core client (38-40% of sales)

  Comparison

  Vs peers, its Rubin platform wallet share (50-55%) leads significantly, with fastest HDI capacity expansion

  Risks

  Key equipment (lasers) and material (fiberglass) shortages may delay capacity release

• NVIDIA (NVDA.US)

  Core driver: Its Rubin platform roadmap directly shapes Victory Giant's product upgrades and order scale

  Strengths

  Global AI GPU leader, tech iterations drive upstream PCB upgrades

  Weaknesses

  Not rated in report; supply chain diversification may dilute orders

  Comparison

  As industry chain leader, its tech influence exceeds upstream PCB players

  Risks

  If NVIDIA adjusts tech roadmap or adds suppliers, Victory Giant's share may be impacted

Key data

• Target Price417.00 CNYRaised from 333 CNY, based on 27x FY27F EPS
• FY26-28F Revenue CAGR54%AI & HPC segment revenue CAGR projected at 65%
• FY26-28F Net Profit CAGR61%FY28F net profit projected up 48% YoY
• 2026Q1 Revenue/Net Profit Growth+28% / +40% YoYQoQ growth +7%/+21%, showing acceleration
• Global AI PCB Market Share13.8% (1H25)Only 1.7% in 2024, now global leader
• Rubin Platform Wallet Share Forecast50-55%FY26-28F, core client to contribute 38-40% of sales
• HDI Capacity Plan0.56 → 2.97 million sqmFY25-28F expansion to ease constraints
• FY27F EPS Forecast15.44 CNYCurrent price implies 21.6x FY27F PE

Impact & implications

The report views Victory Giant's HK IPO not just as fundraising but as a key global milestone, enhancing international brand recognition and serving overseas clients. For investors, this signals a shift from a 'A-share AI concept stock' to a 'global AI infrastructure core player.' Short-term execution risks during 2026 capacity ramp may cause volatility (FY26 forecasts slightly below consensus), but high-growth certainty and margin improvement (GPM up 2.4-4.3pp) in 2027-2028 enhance appeal. If HDI/HLC capacity and Rubin platform wallet share are delivered, its valuation could re-rate from traditional PCB maker to AI compute core component supplier.

Risks

• Core client supply chain diversification and competition may erode share
• Tech disruption risk: e.g., COWOP could alter landscape and threaten share
• AI PCB tech upgrade pace slower than expected
• Geopolitical tensions may disrupt global AI value chain cooperation

What to watch

• Huizhou capacity expansion progress and yield ramp
• NVIDIA Rubin platform mass production timeline and actual supply share validation
• Non-NVIDIA ASIC client expansion and revenue contribution changes
• Key raw material (laser equipment, fiberglass) supply stability and price fluctuations