Data Center Electrification: Gradual 800V Transition, Overseas Profit Advantages Highlighted

Overview

This report summarizes the minutes from Goldman Sachs' 2026 AI Data Center + Power Supply Virtual Corporate Day, covering six companies in the data center electrical supply chain. Core viewpoints focus on the gradual transition of new technologies (800V DC/SST), changes in the competitive landscape, trends in prefabricated products, and profit divergence between domestic and overseas markets. The institution favors enterprises with overseas exposure and the ability to launch new products.

Core views

Regarding technological transition, UPS systems are evolving towards 500-600kW and MW levels, with traditional AC UPS orders in North America fully booked until 2028. The transition to 800V architecture is gradual; 2026 will mostly see sampling or small batches, with large-scale commercialization of SST expected after 2027. Regarding market divergence, the domestic market faces gross margin pressure due to CSP bargaining power and rising costs; overseas markets (especially the US) can implement 'cost-plus' pricing due to capacity shortages, resulting in better profit margins. Corporate strategies are shifting towards defensive expansion, selectively accepting domestic orders while focusing on overseas markets. Regarding product trends, prefabricated modular power products are favored for shortening overseas delivery and installation cycles, with content value approximately 3 times that of standalone UPS systems. Regarding individual stocks, Kstar receives a Buy rating due to high overseas exposure and new product progress; Kehua Hengsheng and Megmeet receive Neutral ratings due to domestic profit pressure or valuations already reflecting expectations.

Analysis framework

The report employs event-driven analysis, extracting supply chain consensus based on corporate day exchange minutes. It analyzes the logic behind corporate profit divergence by comparing domestic and overseas market demand, pricing models, and competitive landscapes. It combines technology roadmaps (800V/SST penetration rates) to assess long-term market space. Valuation models (PE) and target price calculations are used to evaluate the investment value of individual stocks.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Transmission

  Supply Chain Upstream-Downstream Transmission

  Analyzes the impact of upstream chip/component supply on downstream data center construction and electrical equipment demand, such as improved domestic GPU supply driving domestic demand recovery.

• Valuation MethodPE/PEG valuation

  Price-to-Earnings Ratio Valuation

  Uses forward P/E ratios (e.g., 2028E P/E) combined with equity cost discounting to calculate target prices and assess the valuation attractiveness of individual stocks.

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkProduct life cycle

  Technology Penetration Curve

  Analyzes the life cycle stages of 800V/SST technology from sampling and validation to small batches and large-scale commercialization to judge the timing of market volume release.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkSupply and Demand Framework

  Supply/Demand and Pricing Power

  Explains pricing models (cost-plus vs. price pressure) and profit margin differences by comparing domestic and overseas capacity supply and demand conditions (e.g., North American capacity shortage vs. domestic competition).

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kstar (002518.SZ)

  Buy rating, high overseas exposure, benefits from high overseas gross margins

  Strengths

  High visibility on overseas UPS ODM orders, advancement of prefabricated container products

  Weaknesses

  Domestic price competition

  Comparison

  More clear overseas expansion compared to Kehua Hengsheng

  Risks

  US ODM order growth lower than expected

• Kehua Hengsheng (002335.SZ)

  Neutral rating, domestic profit pressure

  Strengths

  Deep domestic footprint, SEA expansion

  Weaknesses

  Domestic CSP bargaining pressure, no short-term visibility for North American expansion

  Comparison

  Slower overseas expansion speed than Kstar

  Risks

  Intensified domestic price competition

• Megmeet (002851.SZ)

  Neutral rating, valuation already reflects expectations

  Strengths

  Entered global AI server supply chain

  Weaknesses

  Gap in high-efficiency product portfolio compared to top-tier peers

  Comparison

  No obvious valuation advantage relative to peers

  Risks

  800V product validation progress

• Jinpan Technology (688676.SS)

  Not covered, strong Q1 2026 data

  Strengths

  Large contribution from overseas orders, delivery cycle advantage

• Sifang Share (601126.SS)

  Not covered, SST potential

  Strengths

  Rich experience in medium-voltage DC projects

  Weaknesses

  No large-scale domestic demand in the short term

  Risks

  SST reliability validation

Key data

• Expected SST Penetration Rate30%-40%2030 North America Market Expectation
• Potential SST Market Size>100 Billion CNY2030 Expectation, assuming 3-4 CNY/W
• Kstar Target Price67.0 CNYBased on 2028E 26x P/E
• Kehua Hengsheng Target Price54.0 CNYBased on 2027E 30x P/E
• Megmeet Target Price112.0 CNYBased on 2028E 32x P/E
• Jinpan Technology Q1 2026 Order Growth278%YoY new orders for data center power
• Prefabricated Product Content Value3xCompared to standalone UPS systems (per watt basis)

Impact & implications

Beneficial for enterprises with overseas channels and prefabricated product capabilities, allowing them to enjoy higher margins. Domestic enterprises need to cope with CSP bargaining pressure and seek growth through going global. New technologies like SST have significant long-term space but require waiting for reliability validation for short-term commercialization. Investors should focus on the landing of overseas orders and the progress of new technology validation.

Risks

• US ODM order growth lower than expected
• Launch of new products such as 800V DC slower than expected
• Overseas ESS growth and profit margins lower than expected
• Domestic CSP capital expenditure below expectations
• Rising costs of raw materials and semiconductor components

What to watch

• 2H26 supply chain updates and 800V commercial progress
• Progress in field reliability validation of SST
• Landing of overseas prefabricated product orders
• Improvement in domestic GPU/ASIC chip supply