The upcycle in server CPUs is strengthening, while PC demand is still dragged by price elasticity

Overview

This report uses Intel’s 2Q26 earnings call and disclosures from AMD Advancing AI 2026 as the core basis to assess their read-through impact on the Asian PC and server supply chain. The main conclusion is that on the PC side, near-term revenue is supported by ASP and product mix, but end demand and shipments are under pressure; on the server side, demand is supported by AI-driven general server demand, an upward revision to data center CPU TAM, and improving supply, with momentum likely to continue into 2027/2028.

Core views

The report maintains a structural view of “strong servers, weak PCs.” On servers, Intel DCAI revenue grew strongly, and management expects server CPU demand to maintain strong double-digit growth in 2026/27 and continue into 2028; AMD’s higher data center CPU TAM further validates server CPU market expansion. On PCs, rising memory prices are causing negative price elasticity, and together with fading Windows 10 commercial PC replacement demand, management expects PC demand to decline by low double digits in 2026, leaving continued downside risk for PC brands and key component demand.

Analysis framework

The report combines earnings-call read-through, supply chain feedback, JPM’s proprietary server CPU shipment model, TAM revision analysis, and industry chain constraint analysis to map Intel and AMD demand, supply, and roadmap information onto Asian PC/server supply chain names.

Methodology notes

• Industry chain read-throughEarnings call deep read

  Infer downstream and upstream supply chain impacts from Intel 2Q26 and AMD AI Day information

  Through client revenue, DCAI revenue, CPU roadmap, capacity constraints, and management demand guidance, the report judges which PC ODMs, server ODMs, BMC, connector, PCB, and packaging-related companies are likely to benefit or come under pressure.

• Market sizingTAM and CAGR analysis

  Data center CPU TAM raised from US$120bn to US$220bn

  AMD raised its 2030 data center CPU TAM to US$220bn, implying a 53% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, which is used to support the view of expanding server CPU demand.

• Supply constraint analysisSupply bottlenecks and capacity ramp-up

  Constraints in advanced logic, wafers, memory, substrates, and advanced packaging

  The report focuses on Intel 18A, 14A, EMIB-T, cleanroom construction, and tool orders, and believes overall supply tightness may persist at least through 2027.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• INTEL CORP (US.INTC)

  Core information source and provider of server/PC demand guidance

  Strengths

  Strong DCAI revenue growth, improving server CPU demand outlook, and 18A output above internal targets.

  Weaknesses

  PC demand guidance is below seasonality, with 2026 PC demand expected to decline by low double digits; external foundry revenue contribution remains low.

  Comparison

  Compared with the PC client business, the data center and server CPU business has stronger momentum.

  Risks

  Supply constraints, weakening PC end demand, and slower-than-expected onboarding of external customers for advanced process technology.

• ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC (US.AMD)

  Key reference for the upward revision in data center CPU TAM

  Strengths

  Raised 2030 data center CPU TAM to US$220bn, reinforcing the long-term growth narrative for server CPUs.

  Weaknesses

  The report did not provide a new rating upgrade or target price change; the current rating is N.

  Comparison

  Together with Intel’s server CPU demand guidance, it validates expansion in the data center CPU market.

  Risks

  TAM realization depends on AI infrastructure capex, the competitive landscape, and supply chain execution.

• ASPEED Technology Inc. (5274.TWO)

  Beneficiary name in the traditional server supply chain

  Strengths

  Strong server demand and new product content upgrades are positive for the value of related content such as BMC.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation and supply cadence may be affected by volatility in the server chain.

  Comparison

  Compared with the PC brand chain, server-related elasticity is stronger.

  Risks

  Server shipments missing expectations, customer inventory adjustments, and changes in AI server architecture.

• Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW)

  Beneficiary server ODM name

  Strengths

  Server shipment momentum is extending into 2H26, and improving traditional server demand benefits ODMs.

  Weaknesses

  Disclosures show J.P. Morgan has potential conflicts of interest such as investment banking business and shareholdings.

  Comparison

  Benefits more than PC ODMs from CSP and enterprise server demand.

  Risks

  CSP capex volatility, supply bottlenecks, and customer concentration.

• Lotes (3533.TW)

  Beneficiary of server connectors and content upgrades

  Strengths

  Server CPU demand and new platform content upgrades are positive for connector demand.

  Weaknesses

  Affected by supply chain bottlenecks and platform ramp-up timing.

  Comparison

  Along with ASPEED, it belongs to the beneficiary basket of the traditional server chain.

  Risks

  Delays in server platform transitions, insufficient component supply, and price competition.

• Unimicron (3037.TW)

  Beneficiary related to servers and substrates

  Strengths

  Strong server demand and tight substrate supply may support orders and pricing.

  Weaknesses

  Tight supply-demand conditions may also limit shipment realization.

  Comparison

  The benefit logic is tilted toward the resonance of tight supply and server demand.

  Risks

  Substrate capacity expansion, yield, and customer demand volatility.

• ASUSTek Computer (2357.TW)

  PC chain name under pressure

  Strengths

  Client ASP and product mix improvement can support revenue in the short term.

  Weaknesses

  Weak PC end demand and rising memory prices are causing negative price elasticity, and the report expects it to continue underperforming the index.

  Comparison

  Clearly weaker than server supply chain names.

  Risks

  A steeper-than-expected decline in PC demand, inventory, and price competition.

• Micro-Star International (2377.TW)

  Cautious PC chain name

  Strengths

  May benefit from a high-end product mix, but the report remains cautious overall.

  Weaknesses

  Declining PC unit demand and rising prices for key components are suppressing demand, and the report expects it to continue underperforming the index.

  Comparison

  Compared with server chain names such as ASPEED and Wiwynn, demand elasticity is more negative.

  Risks

  Weak consumer PC demand, rising memory prices, and a fading replacement cycle.

• TSMC (2330.TW)

  Reference for advanced process competition and supply landscape

  Strengths

  The report believes that by the time Intel 14A reaches high-volume production, TSMC N2 will already have high yield and be approaching annual revenue of about US$80bn, while front-end wafer market share may still remain above 95%.

  Weaknesses

  Tight advanced process supply may limit realization of some demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with Intel Foundry, TSMC still has an advantage in external customers and mass-production yield.

  Risks

  Advanced process competition, the pace of capacity expansion, and customer project diversion.

Key data

• Intel CCPG 2Q26 revenueup 15% QoQDriven by cost-led price increases and favorable product mix, beating both company and market expectations.
• Intel DCAI 2Q26 revenueup 24% QoQ, up 59% YoYDriven by strong CSP and enterprise server demand as well as improved supply.
• 2026 PC demand outlooklow double-digit declineManagement attributed this to negative price elasticity from rising memory prices and fading Windows 10 commercial PC replacement demand.
• Server CPU demand outlookstrong double-digit growth in 2026/27, with momentum extending into 2028Intel management delivered an incrementally positive signal on server CPU demand over the next 2-3 years.
• AMD data center CPU TAMUS$220bn in 2030Raised from the previous US$120bn, implying a 2025-2030 CAGR of 53%.
• Intel 18A output25% above internal target, more than 50% QoQ growthThe report believes it is currently still mainly driven by Intel’s internal products, with external foundry revenue accounting for only about 5% of this business in 2Q.
• EMIB-T yieldabout 60%The report says multiple mainstream AI accelerator projects are evaluating EMIB-T, but most may start at small scale.
• Intel 2026 capex guidance>US$20bn2027 capex guidance is expected to rise significantly YoY, reflecting accelerating cleanroom construction and equipment orders.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the traditional server supply chain offers more attractive demand visibility and content upgrade opportunities, with ASPEED, Wiwynn, Lotes, and Unimicron seen as the main beneficiaries; the PC chain, by contrast, faces demand suppression from price increases, sequential shipment declines, and the risk of relative underperformance by brands. In advanced process technology and packaging, progress in Intel 18A and EMIB-T shows supply expansion is moving forward, but TSMC may still maintain a very high share in the front-end wafer market, and overall supply tightness is unlikely to ease in the short term.

Risks

• Negative price elasticity caused by rising memory prices may further suppress PC demand.
• Fading Windows 10 commercial PC replacement demand may cause 2026 PC demand to decline by low double digits.
• Supply constraints in advanced logic, wafers, memory, and substrates may limit realization of server demand.
• EMIB-T currently has a yield of about 60%, and there are execution risks in high-volume production and adoption by mainstream AI accelerator projects.
• Intel’s external foundry revenue contribution remains low, and there is uncertainty around onboarding external customers for commercialization of advanced process technology.
• If CSP and enterprise server demand slows, the pace of benefits for the server supply chain may fall short of expectations.

What to watch

• Whether Intel’s 3Q26 and 4Q26 DCAI revenue growth continues to validate server demand momentum.
• The mass-production timeline for Intel 18A products, Clearwater Forest, and the subsequent ramp-up of Diamond Rapids/Oak Stream.
• Whether AMD’s higher data center CPU TAM can translate into actual orders and server CPU shipments.
• Memory price trends and their impact on PC end demand and notebook ODM shipments.
• EMIB-T yield, the timeline for high-volume production, and whether AI accelerator projects such as TPU v9 enter mass production in 2027-2028.
• TSMC N2 yield, capacity, and revenue ramp-up, as well as the competitive impact of Intel 14A in 2028.