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China's green exports hit another record high, with new energy vehicles becoming the main growth engine

Institution
UBS
Date
2026-08-07
Authors
Jarvis Lam, Victoria Kalb, Charles Fruitiere, Alisa Dudchak, Leigha Miyata, Lydia Brunton
Company
-
Ticker
-
Industry
Green manufacturing (new energy vehicles, batteries, photovoltaics, and electrical equipment)
Rating
-
BullishLow confidenceIn June, China's “new three” and electrical equipment exports both reached record highs, while exports of new energy vehicles, batteries, and photovoltaics all grew month-on-month, indicating that global demand for electrification, energy security, and low-carbon technologies remains strong.
AuthorsJarvis Lam, Victoria Kalb, Charles Fruitiere, Alisa Dudchak, Leigha Miyata, Lydia Brunton
CoverageUnited States、Europe
Business segmentsNew energy vehicles、Batteries、Photovoltaics、Electrical equipment
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesUBS(Other)、UBS Securities Asia Limited(Other)、UBS Evidence Lab(Other)

AI summary card

China's green exports hit another record high, with new energy vehicles becoming the main growth engine

In June 2026, China's “new three” exports reached US$20.8bn, up 54% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles, batteries, and photovoltaics all achieving month-on-month growth; Europe maintained its position as the largest market, while Oceania became a new growth engine for new energy vehicle exports.

This report is a thematic and industry monthly tracking report and does not involve individual stock ratings, target prices, or rating changes.
China green exportsNew energy vehiclesBatteriesPhotovoltaicsElectrical equipmentGlobal electrificationEnergy transition
  • In June, exports of the “new three” reached a record high of US$20.8bn, up 11% month-on-month and 54% year-on-year.
  • In the first half of 2026, cumulative exports of the “new three” reached US$111bn, up 49% year-on-year.
  • New energy vehicle exports were US$9.1bn, up 116% year-on-year, making them the main growth driver in June.
  • Europe accounted for 41% of total “new three” exports in June, continuing to rank as the largest overseas market.
  • Oceania's share of China's new energy vehicle exports rose from 4% in December 2025 to 11% in June, with demand in Australia particularly strong.
  • Electrical equipment exports reached a new high of US$14bn, up 33% year-on-year, indicating continued benefits for the broader electrification supply chain.

Report interpretation

Overview

The report tracks China's green manufacturing industrial chain through monthly high-frequency export data. In June 2026, exports of China's “new three” — new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries — reached a record high, with all three segments expanding month-on-month. New energy vehicle exports led in growth, battery demand remained steady, and photovoltaic exports returned to positive growth. Regionally, Europe remains the core market, but export growth is spreading to regions such as Oceania. Electrical equipment exports also set a new record, indicating that the beneficiaries of global grid investment, transport electrification, and energy security demand have expanded to the broader electrification supply chain.

Core views

Global decarbonization, energy security, and electrification investment remain the core drivers of external demand for China's green technologies. New energy vehicles have become the strongest growth category as Chinese automakers continue to expand overseas markets, while batteries benefit from both new energy vehicle and energy storage demand; photovoltaic exports have rebounded, but their scale and year-on-year growth lag behind new energy vehicles and batteries. Europe continues to dominate demand, while Oceania, especially Australia, is becoming a new growth engine for new energy vehicle exports. Beyond the “new three,” electrical equipment also has a structurally beneficial logic.

Analysis framework

The report uses UBS Evidence Lab's China Export Monitor dataset to track trade statistics for selected Chinese customs commodities on a monthly basis, and evaluates green export trends across dimensions such as export value, month-on-month growth, year-on-year growth, subsectors, and destination regions.

Methodology notes

  • High-frequency trade data trackingChina Export Monitor

    Monitor export changes in the green industrial chain through import and export statistics for specific commodities from Chinese customs.

    This method aggregates commodities such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, batteries, and electrical equipment by month and export destination, identifying demand trends and regional sources of growth through month-on-month and year-on-year changes.

  • Industrial chain classification“New three” export framework

    Combines new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and batteries for observation to measure overall external demand for China's green manufacturing products.

    This framework compares the growth contributions of the three subsectors and also analyzes the demand structure of markets such as Europe, Asia, ASEAN, and Oceania.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • Chinese new energy vehicle industrial chain equities
    Positively correlated
    Strengths
    June export value grew 116% year-on-year, overseas penetration of Chinese automakers continued to improve, and contributions from new markets such as Oceania strengthened.
    Weaknesses
    Growth is relatively sensitive to overseas market access, channel development, and the sustainability of regional demand.
    Comparison
    The year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicle exports was significantly higher than that of batteries and photovoltaics, making it the main driver of growth in the “new three.”
    Risks
    Fluctuations in overseas demand, changes in regional market concentration, and a high export base may lead to a slowdown in growth.
  • Chinese battery industrial chain equities
    Positively correlated
    Strengths
    June export value reached US$9.2bn, with demand jointly supported by new energy vehicle and energy storage applications.
    Weaknesses
    Year-on-year growth was lower than that of new energy vehicles, and future performance depends on end-market electric vehicle and energy storage investment.
    Comparison
    Export scale was slightly higher than that of new energy vehicles, but year-on-year growth was 30%, significantly lower than the 116% for new energy vehicles.
    Risks
    A slowdown in end demand, localization of overseas capacity, and price changes may affect export value.
  • Chinese photovoltaic industrial chain equities
    Mildly positively correlated
    Strengths
    June exports rose 12% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year, returning to positive growth.
    Weaknesses
    Export scale was only US$2.5bn, and year-on-year growth was lower than that of new energy vehicles and batteries.
    Comparison
    Among the “new three,” it had the smallest scale and the lowest year-on-year growth rate, contributing relatively limited support to overall export growth.
    Risks
    Insufficient strength in demand recovery and uncertainty over the sustainability of export value growth.
  • Chinese electrical equipment industrial chain equities
    Positively correlated
    Strengths
    June export value reached a new high of US$14bn, with global grid investment and energy security demand providing structural support.
    Weaknesses
    Regional demand is relatively dispersed, and the investment intensity of major markets needs continued validation.
    Comparison
    Export scale was below the combined total of the “new three,” but year-on-year growth of 33% shows that the beneficiary scope has expanded to the broader electrification supply chain.
    Risks
    Changes in the global infrastructure investment cycle and slowing demand in major export regions may affect growth.

Key data

  • June “new three” export valueUS$20.8bnUp 11% month-on-month and 54% year-on-year, reaching a record high.
  • First-half 2026 “new three” export valueUS$111bnUp 49% year-on-year.
  • June new energy vehicle export valueUS$9.1bnUp 14% month-on-month and 116% year-on-year, the main growth driver.
  • June battery export valueUS$9.2bnUp 8% month-on-month and 30% year-on-year.
  • June photovoltaic export valueUS$2.5bnUp 12% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year, returning to positive growth.
  • Europe market share41%Europe was the largest export destination for China's “new three” in June.
  • Oceania share of new energy vehicle exports11%Higher than 4% in December 2025; export value in both May and June grew by more than 300% year-on-year.
  • June electrical equipment export valueUS$14bnUp 7% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, reaching a record high.

Impact & implications

The data provides positive validation of overseas demand for China's new energy vehicle, battery, and electrical equipment industrial chains, and also indicates that sources of green export growth are spreading from Europe to more regions. The high growth rate of new energy vehicles benefits Chinese automakers and supply chains with overseas channels, product competitiveness, and localization capabilities; battery companies can benefit from both new energy vehicle and energy storage demand; electrical equipment companies benefit from global grid construction and energy security investment. Although photovoltaic exports have returned to growth, their relative performance remains weaker than that of new energy vehicles and batteries. The report does not provide specific individual stock investment recommendations.

Risks

  • There is no globally unified definition in the fields of sustainability and ESG, and related concepts and investment importance may change over time.
  • The report uses customs trade data for selected commodities and should not be viewed as a complete description of all green industries or corporate operating performance.
  • Monthly export values and high growth rates may be affected by base effects, product mix, and changes in regional demand; a single month's performance does not necessarily represent a long-term trend.
  • The report's views reflect only the time of publication and may be adjusted following subsequent data or changes in the market environment.
  • Historical export performance does not guarantee future investment returns, and the report also does not provide specific securities ratings or target prices.

What to watch

  • Whether “new three” export value can continue to maintain high year-on-year growth after reaching a record high.
  • The sustainability of growth in new energy vehicle exports in Australia and other Oceania markets.
  • Whether Europe's 41% share of China's green product exports remains stable.
  • Subsequent performance of battery demand in the two application categories of new energy vehicles and energy storage.
  • Whether photovoltaic exports can narrow the growth-rate gap with new energy vehicles and batteries after returning to positive growth.
  • Whether electrical equipment exports and related demand in ASEAN, Europe, and North America continue to reach new highs.
Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
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