New Models Drive Orders, But Performance Varies Sharply Among Manufacturers

Overview

This is Morgan Stanley’s weekly order-tracking report on China’s new-energy vehicle sector, covering the period from May 25–31, 2026, and summarizing weekly order data from major automakers based on channel feedback. The key conclusion is that orders continued to show significant divergence this week, with upward momentum highly dependent on new model launches; demand for older models remained generally flat and showed weak seasonal effects. The firm also noted that, driven by May’s month-on-month sales rebound, new model launches, and overseas business contributions, the sector’s second-quarter results could surpass previous guidance; however, the firm judged that additional policy stimulus speculated by some investors was unlikely to materialize.

Core views

Overall Picture: This week, orders for new-energy vehicle companies continued to diverge, with those launching new models seeing a sharp rise in orders, while older models lacking new product support showed relatively flat demand and weak peak-season effects. Leaders: NIO and Aito stood out, benefiting from accelerated order conversions from their ES9 and M9 models respectively. NIO’s orders this week reached 47,500–47,700 units, with impressive month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates (about +419% month-on-month and +705% year-on-year); Aito’s orders were 28,000–28,200 units (about +38% month-on-month and +268% year-on-year); HIMA, which shares the same brand as Aito, reported orders of 34,200–34,400 units, up about +221% month-on-month. BYD, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi recorded steady weekly order inflows: BYD’s orders this week were 76,200–76,700 units (up about +35% month-on-month), Leapmotor’s were 16,300–16,500 units, and Xiaomi’s were 10,000–10,200 units. Decliners: Some manufacturers saw their orders fall back from initial peaks after new model launches to normal levels. Geely Galaxy’s orders this week were 19,100–19,600 units (down about -27% month-on-month), reflecting normalization after the sales peak following the launch of Xingyao 7; Xpeng’s orders were 18,700–18,900 units (down about -34% month-on-month), with GX orders also returning to normal levels after their launch peak; Li Auto’s orders this week were only 7,800–8,000 units (down about -29% year-on-year), relatively weak, though its L8 model will be launched at the end of June, providing potential future catalysts. Sector Outlook: The firm believes that May’s month-on-month sales rebound, combined with new model launches and overseas business contributions, could push the sector’s second-quarter results above guidance, prompting an active market response. Regarding market speculation on additional policy stimulus, the firm remains cautious, judging that further stimulus measures are unlikely to be introduced.

Analysis framework

The firm adopted a high-frequency order-tracking approach: collecting weekly order volumes from each automaker through channel feedback, and providing week-on-week (WoW), month-on-month (MoM), and year-on-year (YoY) comparisons simultaneously. Using orders—a leading indicator—to observe changes in end-demand heat and cold, thereby making predictions about subsequent sales and earnings. In interpreting the data, the firm particularly emphasized distinguishing between sources of order growth: whether it came from one-time surges triggered by new model launches or from stable demand for older models. New model launches often cause a pulse-like surge in orders, followed by a return to normal levels; thus, assessing order “sustainability” is more important than just looking at the weekly numbers—this is precisely why the report title highlights “diverging sustainability among manufacturers.” On this basis, the firm combined the month-on-month sales rebound, new model launch rhythms, and overseas exposure to conclude that second-quarter results could exceed guidance.

Methodology notes

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkProduct life cycle

  New model launches bring order surges, then return to normal levels

  When a new car is launched, there is often a peak in orders due to concentrated pent-up demand being released, after which orders gradually return to normal levels. The report uses this pattern to explain that Geely Galaxy (Xingyao 7) and Xpeng (GX) orders falling month-on-month represent ‘normalization after the launch peak,’ whereas NIO’s ES9 and Aito’s M9 remain in a phase of rapid growth, helping readers assess order sustainability.

• Event Game Theory and Behavioral FinanceExpectation Gap/Expectation Management

  Using leading indicators to judge whether earnings exceed guidance expectations

  The firm treats weekly orders and monthly sales as leading signals of earnings. When May sales rebounded month-on-month, coupled with new models and overseas contributions, it concluded that second-quarter earnings ‘could exceed guidance.’ This reflects an analytical approach that uses high-frequency data to capture the gap between actual earnings and market expectations (expectation gap).

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposing order changes across multiple dimensions—year-on-year and month-on-month

  The report lists week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year figures for each automaker simultaneously, cross-validating demand trends across different timeframes: week-on-week for short-term fluctuations, month-on-month for trend recovery, and year-on-year for long-term growth, avoiding misleading conclusions from single metrics. This is a common decomposition method used in tracking studies.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NIO (9866.HK/NIO.N)

  Benefiting from improved ES9 order conversions, this week’s orders reached 47,500–47,700 units, up about +419% month-on-month and +705% year-on-year, leading the industry.

  Strengths

  The new ES9 model drove a significant surge in orders, with top rankings in week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year growth rates.

  Comparison

  Like Aito, it was one of this week’s leaders, both driven by single new models.

• Aito (including HIMA’s figure)

  Benefiting from improved M9 order conversions, Aito’s orders were 28,000–28,200 units (up about +38% month-on-month, +268% year-on-year), and HIMA’s figure was 34,200–34,400 units (up about +221% month-on-month).

  Strengths

  The M9 model drove a substantial increase in orders.

  Comparison

  Like NIO, it was among this week’s top performers, both driven by single new models.

• BYD (1211.HK/002594.SZ)

  Recorded steady weekly order inflows, with this week’s orders at 76,200–76,700 units (up about +35% month-on-month, +4% month-on-month).

  Strengths

  Large order base and steady inflows.

  Weaknesses

  Down about -11% year-on-year.

  Comparison

  Like Leapmotor and Xiaomi, it belongs to the group with steady orders, differing from the pulse-like growth driven by new models.

• Geely Galaxy (0175.HK)

  This week’s orders were 19,100–19,600 units (down about -27% month-on-month), normalizing after the Xingyao 7 launch peak.

  Weaknesses

  Orders fell from the new model launch peak, declining in week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year terms.

  Comparison

  Similar to Xpeng, both are in the post-launch peak decline stage.

• Xpeng (9868.HK/XPEV.N)

  This week’s orders were 18,700–18,900 units (down about -34% month-on-month, up about +119% month-on-month), with GX orders returning to normal after the launch peak.

  Strengths

  Month-on-month still showed significant improvement.

  Weaknesses

  Week-on-week declined sharply, down about -17% year-on-year.

  Comparison

  Like Geely Galaxy, both are in the post-launch peak normalization stage.

• Li Auto (2015.HK/LI.O)

  This week’s orders were only 7,800–8,000 units (down about -29% year-on-year), relatively weak; the L8 model will launch at the end of June, providing potential future catalysts.

  Strengths

  Month-on-month improved slightly by about +7%.

  Weaknesses

  Orders were weak, with a significant year-on-year decline.

  Comparison

  Among major manufacturers, it had lower order volumes and lacked current new-model support.

Key data

• BYD Weekly Orders76,200–76,700 unitsUp about +35% month-on-month, +4% month-on-month, down about -11% year-on-year
• NIO Weekly Orders47,500–47,700 unitsUp about +392% month-on-month, +419% month-on-month, +705% year-on-year, driven by improved ES9 order conversions
• HIMA Weekly Orders34,200–34,400 unitsUp about +221% month-on-month, down about -3% month-on-month
• Aito Weekly Orders28,000–28,200 unitsUp about +419% month-on-month, +38% month-on-month, +268% year-on-year, driven by improved M9 order conversions
• Geely Galaxy Weekly Orders19,100–19,600 unitsDown about -27% month-on-month, -32% month-on-month, down about -28% year-on-year, normalizing after the Xingyao 7 launch peak
• Xpeng Weekly Orders18,700–18,900 unitsDown about -34% month-on-month, up about +119% month-on-month, down about -17% year-on-year, GX orders falling from launch peak
• Leapmotor Weekly Orders16,300–16,500 unitsUp about +15% month-on-month, down about -21% month-on-month, up about +79% year-on-year
• Li Auto Weekly Orders7,800–8,000 unitsDown about -10% month-on-month, up about +7% month-on-month, down about -29% year-on-year, L8 to launch at end of June
• Tesla China Weekly Orders10,000–10,200 unitsMonth-on-month flat, down about -22% month-on-month, up about +25% year-on-year
• Zeekr Weekly Orders8,400–8,600 unitsDown about -9% month-on-month, down about -42% month-on-month, up about +110% year-on-year
• Xiaomi Weekly Orders10,000–10,200 unitsUp about +25% month-on-month, down about -7% month-on-month, up about +100% year-on-year

Impact & implications

The report concludes that, driven by May’s month-on-month sales rebound and supported by new model launches and overseas business, the sector’s second-quarter results are expected to exceed previous guidance, prompting an active market reaction. Structurally, order growth heavily depends on new models; manufacturers with strong new-model rhythms (such as NIO and Aito) lead the way, while older models lacking new products show flat demand, resulting in significant differences in order sustainability among manufacturers. As for market speculation on additional policy stimulus, the firm judges that such measures are unlikely to be introduced.

What to watch

• Li Auto’s L8 model will launch at the end of June; watch its impact on orders
• Whether orders can sustain after new model launches and whether demand for older models can improve
• Whether the sector’s second-quarter results can exceed guidance as expected by the firm