EV Weekly Orders Slow WoW, Dense June New Car Launches Support Deliveries

Overview

This is an electric vehicle weekly order tracking report released by Morgan Stanley's China Auto team, focusing on channel feedback data from June 1 to 7, 2026. The core conclusion is: after experiencing the previous dense new car launch season, mainstream automakers' weekly orders generally declined WoW in early June, which belongs to the normal 'halftime break' between product cycles; however, due to the still abundant existing orders accumulated earlier, June's overall delivery volume is still expected to improve WoW. The report also sorts out key new models launching soon in mid-to-late June, and indicates the next window for heavy-weight new car launches will open in late July.

Core views

Weekly orders generally declining WoW belongs to rhythmic adjustment, YoY performance shows significant divergence. June first week data shows, most automakers orders declined double-digits WoW, but YoY dimension shows significant differences: Nio (+144%), Leapmotor (+66%), Xiaomi (+60%) and other brands maintain high growth due to low base last year or new car effect continuation; BYD (-16%), Geely Galaxy (-33%), Li Auto (-20%), Tesla China (-25%) appear YoY negative growth, reflecting temporary pressure during product cycle switching phase. Each automaker's order driving logic varies. BYD weekly orders 68.4k-68.9k units, down 10% WoW, subsequent growth depends on Da Tang pre-sale conversion and Da Han launch rhythm; Nio 13.2k-13.7k units, although down 72% WoW significantly, but this is normalization after ES9 debut pulse, YoY still increased 144%; XPeng 9.6k-9.8k units, GX similarly past debut peak, down 49% WoW; Leapmotor 14.6k-14.8k units, C-series facelift SUV is expected to boost; IM Motors (HIMA) 14.4k-14.9k units, down 58% WoW but YoY data not disclosed; Aito 8.8k-9.0k units, entered stable period after M9 launch; Zeekr 6.6k-6.8k units, increased 65% YoY but under pressure WoW; Xiaomi 8.0k-8.2k units, increased 60% YoY showing SU7/YU7 series continuing volume release. Remaining time in June new cars densely land, constituting short-term catalyst. Report clearly lists June key launch nodes: Geely Flagship 7 (6/10), Leapmotor C-series facelift (6/16), Great Wall Da Tang (6/17), Stelato V800 (6/25), Aito M6 EREV and Li Auto L8 (specific date TBD). These models cover 150k-500k RMB main price band, their pre-sale and launch performance will directly determine whether June late orders can stabilize and rebound.

Analysis framework

Report adopts high-frequency channel survey method, obtains each automaker's weekly new order data through dealer and terminal channel feedback, and cross-verifies trend authenticity with three dimensions: WoW, YoY, MoM. Analysis main line revolves around 'product cycle rhythm': attributes order fluctuations to changes in new car launch density, rather than demand trend deterioration; simultaneously combines upcoming model calendar, forward-looking judges next order inflection point time. The core of this method lies in distinguishing 'cyclical fluctuations' from 'structural changes', avoiding misreading normal decline during new product window period as demand weakness.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Split

  Weekly orders as volume tracking of sales leading indicator

  In the auto industry, new orders are a leading indicator of delivery volume, usually leading actual delivery by 2-6 weeks. Report captures demand marginal changes early through weekly order data, more timely than monthly delivery data, helping investors identify inflection points earlier during product cycle switching phase.

• Cycle & Prosperity FrameworkProsperity Inflection Point Analysis

  Using new car launch density as anchor variable for industry short-term prosperity rhythm

  New energy vehicle industry demand release highly depends on new model supply. Report binds order fluctuations with new car launch calendar, redefines 'order decline' as 'product cycle interval' rather than 'demand recession', thereby more accurately judging the arrival time of short-term prosperity inflection point.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD (1211.HK/002594.SZ)

  Industry leader, order absolute volume leads, but under pressure YoY

  Strengths

  Weekly orders near 70k units still ranks first, MoM +23% shows fundamental resilience

  Weaknesses

  YoY -16%, growth momentum relies on Da Tang/Da Han and other new models continuation

  Comparison

  Order scale far exceeds other automakers, but YoY growth rate weaker than Nio, Leapmotor, Xiaomi

  Risks

  Da Tang pre-sale conversion below expectations may lead to orders further slowdown

• Nio (9866.HK/NIO.N)

  ES9 launch brings order pulse, high growth YoY

  Strengths

  YoY +144%, new car effect significant, brand heat rebounds

  Weaknesses

  WoW -72% shows orders drop quickly after debut peak

  Comparison

  YoY growth rate leads mainstream automakers, but absolute order volume only about 1/5 of BYD

  Risks

  ES9 order sustainability doubtful, need to observe if subsequent weekly data stabilizes

• Leapmotor

  C-series facelift SUV launching soon, expected to boost orders

  Strengths

  YoY +66%, growth momentum good, new car catalyst imminent

  Weaknesses

  WoW -10% and MoM -21%, short-term momentum weakens

  Comparison

  Order volume close to Nio, YoY growth rate second only to Nio and Xiaomi

  Risks

  C-series facelift market acceptance uncertain

• XPeng (9868.HK/XPEV.N)

  GX past debut period, orders enter platform period

  Strengths

  MoM +50% shows mid-term trend still repairing

  Weaknesses

  YoY -15%, WoW -49%, GX pulling effect diminishes

  Comparison

  Order scale close to Tesla China, but YoY performance weaker

  Risks

  Lacks subsequent heavy-weight new cars continuation, orders may continue under pressure

Key data

• BYD Weekly Orders (6/1-7)68.4k-68.9k unitsWoW -10%, YoY -16%, MoM +23%
• Nio Weekly Orders (6/1-7)13.2k-13.7k unitsWoW -72%, YoY +144%, normalization after ES9 debut
• XPeng Weekly Orders (6/1-7)9.6k-9.8k unitsWoW -49%, YoY -15%, GX orders return to normal
• Leapmotor Weekly Orders (6/1-7)14.6k-14.8k unitsWoW -10%, YoY +66%, C-series facelift awaiting boost
• Li Auto Weekly Orders (6/1-7)7.1k-7.6k unitsWoW -9%, YoY -20%, L8 launching soon
• Tesla China Weekly Orders (6/1-7)9.0k-9.2k unitsWoW -10%, YoY -25%
• Xiaomi Weekly Orders (6/1-7)8.0k-8.2k unitsWoW -20%, YoY +60%

Impact & implications

Report believes current order slowdown is a phased phenomenon caused by new car launch rhythm, does not represent industry demand trend weakening. Strong existing order base means June delivery volume still has WoW upside space, forming support for automakers' Q2 end performance. For investors, order conversion rate after new car launches in mid-to-late June is key observation window: if Da Tang, Leapmotor C-series facelift, Li Auto L8 and other models pre-sale performance is positive, then July orders expected to repair quickly; conversely, if new car response is flat, then industry may face longer demand vacuum period. Next round of higher certainty catalyst time point is late July new round of heavy-weight model launch season.

What to watch

• June mid-to-late new cars (Geely Flagship 7, Leapmotor C-series facelift, Great Wall Da Tang, Stelato V800, Aito M6, Li Auto L8) pre-sale and launch order conversion situation
• July late next round heavy-weight new car launch season start rhythm
• When each automaker weekly orders WoW stop declining and stabilize, especially BYD and XPeng