Eisai's three-year outlook for Leqembi is broadly in line with market expectations

Overview

This report is a company update from Goldman Sachs on BioArctic. The core message is that BioArctic's partner Eisai updated its long-term scenario for Leqembi, projecting global net sales of about JPY 300bn by Calendar Year Mar 2028 - Mar 2029. Goldman Sachs estimates that this outlook corresponds to about SEK 1.84bn in royalties for BioArctic, broadly in line with market consensus expectations, and therefore believes the scope for consensus upgrades or share price reaction is limited.

Core views

Goldman Sachs's core view is neutral: Eisai's new outlook validates the market's existing expectations for Leqembi's commercialization path, but does not provide materially positive incremental information. The investment case for BioArctic still mainly depends on Leqembi's commercial performance, approval and sales ramp of the subcutaneous formulation, results from related clinical trials, and cash burn.

Analysis framework

The report compares Eisai's long-term sales scenario for Leqembi with Goldman Sachs estimates and Visible Alpha consensus expectations, and derives the royalties BioArctic could receive based on regional sales mix and exchange-rate assumptions. For valuation, Goldman Sachs uses a DCF method, assuming a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 2%, and arrives at a 12-month target price of SEK339.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  Goldman Sachs uses the DCF method to value BioArctic, explicitly assuming a WACC of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 2%, and based on this derives a 12-month target price of SEK339.

• Forecast comparisonGSe/Visible Alpha Consensus Data

  Consensus expectation validation

  The report compares the BioArctic royalties implied by Eisai's sales outlook for Leqembi with Goldman Sachs estimates and the Visible Alpha consensus expectation of SEK1,827mn, concluding that they are broadly in line with market expectations.

• Risk and quality frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles

  The appendix disclosure explains that GS Factor Profile provides investment context for a stock relative to the market and peers through growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles.

• Event riskRegulatory catalyst tracking

  Tracking FDA approval catalysts

  The report identifies the US FDA approval decision for the subcutaneous formulation of Leqembi as a key item to watch, with a PDUFA date of August 24, 2026.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BioArctic (BIOAb.ST)

  The covered company and beneficiary of Leqembi royalties in the report.

  Strengths

  Progress in Leqembi's global commercialization and potential approval of the subcutaneous formulation could support long-term royalty income.

  Weaknesses

  Eisai's latest outlook is already largely reflected in market expectations, leaving limited room for near-term forecast upgrades.

  Comparison

  The implied SEK 1.84bn royalty is almost identical to the GSe/Visible Alpha consensus expectation of SEK1,827mn.

  Risks

  Leqembi sales performance, clinical trial success or failure, and the level of cash burn could create upside or downside deviations.

• Leqembi

  The core drug asset driving BioArctic's value and royalties.

  Strengths

  Eisai expects global approval expansion and the subcutaneous formulation to drive sales growth.

  Weaknesses

  The sales trajectory still depends on regulatory approvals, commercial execution, and the pace of market penetration.

  Comparison

  Eisai's long-term sales scenario is broadly in line with market consensus expectations rather than meaningfully above expectations.

  Risks

  The US FDA approval outcome for the subcutaneous formulation and subsequent sales performance are key uncertainties.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-25The front page of the report shows Equity Research 25 May 2026.
• Eisai Leqembi sales outlookc.JPY 300bnEisai expects global net sales of Leqembi to reach this level in Calendar Year Mar 2028 - Mar 2029.
• US dollar conversion$1.96bn at USDJPY153The report converts using USDJPY 153.
• BioArctic implied royaltySEK 1.84bnAssumes the US accounts for 80% of sales and USDSEK is 9.29.
• Consensus royalty expectationSEK1,827mnFrom GSe/Visible Alpha Consensus Data, based on an estimated mix of 75% FY28 and 25% FY29.
• RatingNeutralGoldman Sachs rates BioArctic Neutral.
• 12-month target priceSEK339The valuation method is DCF.
• DCF assumptionsWACC 10%; terminal growth 2%Valuation parameters explicitly disclosed in the report.
• Key regulatory date2026-08-24PDUFA date for the US FDA approval decision on the subcutaneous formulation of Leqembi.

Impact & implications

The short-term impact appears limited: because Eisai's outlook for Leqembi is close to market consensus expectations, Goldman Sachs believes the room for consensus revisions or share price volatility resulting from this is limited. Over the medium term, whether the subcutaneous formulation of Leqembi is approved and how much it improves the sales curve after approval will be more important incremental variables.

Risks

• Leqembi commercial performance is stronger or weaker than expected.
• Success or failure of exidavenmab and additional Leqembi clinical trials.
• Cash burn comes in below or above expectations.
• The US FDA approval outcome and sales conversion for the subcutaneous formulation of Leqembi fall short of expectations.
• Goldman Sachs discloses that it has or may have investment banking relationships with BioArctic, and investors should assess potential conflicts of interest in conjunction with the disclosure information.

What to watch

• The US FDA PDUFA decision for the subcutaneous formulation of Leqembi on August 24, 2026.
• The impact of approval of the subcutaneous formulation on Leqembi's sales ramp and patient access.
• Progress in global approval expansion for Leqembi and whether the US sales mix matches the 80% assumption.
• Whether the actual royalties received by BioArctic are close to the estimated SEK 1.84bn.
• Progress of exidavenmab and additional Leqembi clinical trials.
• BioArctic's cash burn level and changes in financing needs.