Regulatory Easing Accelerates Satellite D2D and Broadband Buildout

Overview

The report outlines a series of recent changes to the U.S. regulatory framework and argues that these are becoming an underappreciated driver of satellite connectivity growth. Policy changes span mobile satellite service spectrum, SCS hybrid networks, unlicensed spectrum, power limits, BEAD subsidies, constellation scale and orbital altitude, as well as satellite and launch licensing processes.

Core views

As satellite operators gain more spectrum, can deploy more satellites and beams in the same area, and face shorter approval cycles, the capacity and economics of D2D and satellite broadband will improve. In the near term, satellite services remain primarily complementary to terrestrial networks, with capacity far below that of U.S. terrestrial operators; however, as proprietary spectrum, constellation expansion, and potential investment in terrestrial infrastructure increase, satellite operators may gradually shift from partners to more direct competitors.

Analysis framework

Using regulatory rules, FCC case-specific approvals, and licensing decisions as the main thread, the report combines spectrum bandwidth, constellation deployment, subsidy allocation, and operator partnership examples to assess the effects of regulatory change on supply capacity, capital efficiency, and the competitive landscape for satellite D2D and broadband.

Methodology notes

• Regulatory AnalysisSpectrum and Licensing Framework Analysis

  Assesses how changes in spectrum usage rights, power rules, constellation authorizations, and approval processes affect service supply.

  The report views spectrum exclusivity, sharing mechanisms, power caps, orbital altitude, and approval timelines as core constraints affecting satellite capacity and commercialization speed.

• Competitive LandscapeSatellite–Terrestrial Network Complementarity and Competition Analysis

  Analyzes the path through which satellite and terrestrial telecommunications networks may evolve from complementary relationships toward potential competition.

  SCS requires satellite operators to lease spectrum through terrestrial operators and remain subordinate on interference issues, but as satellite operators acquire proprietary spectrum, they may seek a more independent and equal market position over the long term.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SpaceX / Starlink

  Core Beneficiary

  Strengths

  Obtained 2GHz MSS-related spectrum, a foundation for D2D deployment, expanded Gen2 constellation authorization, lower-orbit operations, and greater room for higher-power operations.

  Weaknesses

  Satellite capacity remains materially below that of terrestrial operators, and standalone mobile services still require more spectrum and potentially terrestrial infrastructure.

  Comparison

  Compared with models reliant on leased terrestrial spectrum, proprietary spectrum supports greater D2D business independence; however, it still trails terrestrial networks in spectrum scale and reuse capability.

  Risks

  Pending system applications, interference coordination, technical execution, further spectrum acquisition, and changes in regulatory conditions.

• Amazon Leo

  Beneficiary and Potential Competitor

  Strengths

  Received an EPFD waiver, Gen2 expansion authorization, expanded frequency-band usage rights, and BEAD subsidy support.

  Weaknesses

  Has not yet established a commercial network, and Gen1 constellation deployment is behind the original schedule.

  Comparison

  Like Starlink, it is a large LEO operator, but it lags in commercialization maturity and existing constellation scale.

  Risks

  Deployment delays, subsidy-project execution, capital expenditure, commercial network launch, and regulatory implementation risks.

• TMUS

  Partner Facing Long-Term Competition

  Strengths

  Launched T-Satellite through its SCS partnership with SpaceX and includes the service in premium plans or sells it as a $10/month add-on.

  Weaknesses

  SCS satellite service remains complementary, while satellite operators' expanding proprietary spectrum may reduce their reliance on partnerships.

  Comparison

  It currently has a relatively mature satellite partnership product, but may face more independent satellite D2D operators over the long term.

  Risks

  Satellite services substituting for some coverage use cases, changes in partnership terms, and intensifying spectrum competition.

• AT&T / Verizon

  Terrestrial Operators and Satellite Partners

  Strengths

  Both are working with ASTS on D2D services and have substantial terrestrial spectrum resources.

  Weaknesses

  Although ASTS service has received FCC approval, it has not yet launched; satellite capacity and commercialization timing remain uncertain.

  Comparison

  Their path is similar to TMUS/SpaceX, but current product implementation is progressing more slowly.

  Risks

  Stronger satellite-operator competition, spectrum auction competition, and rising investment needs for hybrid networks.

• Cable Broadband Operators

  Indirectly Affected Assets

  Strengths

  Fiber and cable still account for a large share of BEAD coverage, and fixed broadband retains clear capacity advantages.

  Weaknesses

  As satellites receive technology-neutral subsidies and achieve higher capacity, their competitiveness improves in rural and hard-to-serve areas.

  Comparison

  Satellites are better suited to low-density areas and coverage gaps, while cable networks retain advantages in capacity and cost structure in high-density areas.

  Risks

  Subsidy funding shifting toward satellites, competition for rural broadband customers, and changes in policy priorities.

Key data

• SpaceX-Related Spectrum ReallocationApproximately 65MHzFollowing approval of the EchoStar license transfer, the report believes this mid-band terrestrial spectrum has effectively been repurposed for satellite D2D.
• Potential NGSO Capacity IncreaseUp to approximately 7xThe FCC stated that the new sharing rules could increase the number of satellites operating simultaneously in the same area and frequency band from one to as many as eight, without increasing the total number of satellites.
• T-Satellite Trial UsersApproximately 2 millionThe number of users who tried the TMUS/SpaceX D2D service during its trial period.
• SpaceX D2D Satellite Count650+The number of SpaceX D2D satellites currently supporting T-Satellite service, according to the report.
• BEAD Program Size$42.5 billionThe total size of the U.S. Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment program.
• SpaceX BEAD SubsidyApproximately $740 millionCovers approximately 476,000 locations, representing about 12% of BEAD service locations.
• Amazon Leo BEAD Subsidy$312 millionCovers approximately 417,000 locations, representing about 11% of BEAD service locations.
• Approved Starlink Gen2 Scale15,000 satellitesThe total number of approved Gen2 Starlink satellites following FCC approval; the company has more than 10,800 active satellites in orbit.
• Approved Additional Amazon Leo Gen2 ScaleApproximately 4,500 satellitesThe number of newly approved Gen2 satellites.

Impact & implications

For satellite operators, regulatory reform is expected to increase available spectrum, spatial reuse, and constellation deployment efficiency, resulting in greater capacity, lower cost per bit, and improved returns on capital expenditure. For terrestrial telecom and cable operators, satellites remain constrained in the near term by physical limitations such as capacity, distance, and power; however, stronger D2D narratives and satellite broadband coverage could increase long-term competitive pressure in remote areas, coverage gaps, and certain mobile connectivity use cases.

Risks

• The ultimate implementation of regulatory proposals, spectrum-sharing rules, or case-specific waivers may differ from expectations.
• Satellite services remain inferior to terrestrial networks in capacity, latency, power, and spectrum-reuse capability, potentially limiting the viability of standalone mobile services.
• Interference coordination between GSO and NGSO systems and developments in international rules may constrain incremental capacity.
• BEAD funds have not yet been fully disbursed, and project performance requirements and allocation of remaining funds remain uncertain.
• Constellation deployment, rocket launches, terminal costs, and capital expenditure may affect commercialization timing.
• Whether terrestrial operators are willing to pursue MVNO or broader partnerships with satellite operators remains uncertain.

What to watch

• FCC requests for comment and final rules on satellite D2D proposals in unlicensed Wi-Fi and Bluetooth bands.
• Approval progress for SpaceX's new MSS satellite system application and its 2GHz band usage plan.
• Participation and bidding behavior of D2D operators in the upper C-band spectrum auction in 2027.
• Whether SCS-eligible bands expand and whether satellite-service subordination evolves into a more equal roaming-style framework.
• Constellation deployment, lower-orbit operations, spectrum expansion, and capacity delivery by Starlink and Amazon Leo.
• Allocation of remaining BEAD funds, performance of satellite-awarded projects, and NTIA enforcement of program requirements.
• Service launch progress for ASTS with AT&T and Verizon, as well as TMUS/SpaceX user adoption and traffic share.