Global Steel Output Fell 1.9% YoY in April; Iran Plunged 46%

Overview

This report tracks global steel production data for April 2026, concluding that supply-side conditions remain weak globally. Crude steel output fell 1.9% YoY, largely dragged down by lower Chinese output; meanwhile, regional divergence intensified—India and Vietnam posted robust growth, while Iran experienced a precipitous output collapse. The report highlights that Iran—a major steel exporter—has suffered severe capacity damage, which is expected to exert profound implications for upstream raw material markets such as coking coal.

Core views

Global output remains under pressure, with China continuing as the primary drag. In April 2026, global crude steel output totaled 153.4 million tonnes, down 1.9% YoY. China’s output stood at 83.6 million tonnes (equivalent to ~2.79 million tonnes per day), down 2.8% YoY; cumulative output for the year-to-date declined 4.1%. Although China’s April daily output remained above the FY2025 average (2.62 million tonnes/day), it was significantly below March’s recent peak (3.0 million tonnes/day). Ex-China output in April totaled 69.8 million tonnes, down 0.8% YoY—but remained up 0.5% YoY for the first four months. Regional divergence has intensified, with emerging markets becoming growth engines. India continues to lead global growth: April output rose 3.9% YoY, and cumulative output for the first four months grew 9.4% YoY. At this pace, annualized output would reach 176 million tonnes (vs. 165 million tonnes in FY2025). Vietnam also performed strongly: output for the first four months rose 8.4% YoY, surpassing several traditional steel producers to become Asia’s fifth- and the world’s twelfth-largest steel producer. In contrast, preliminary data indicate Iran’s April output fell to just 1.8 million tonnes—down 46% YoY—and the report previously warned that roughly 70% of its steelmaking capacity may have been destroyed. China’s production cut logic has shifted, with market-driven factors now dominating supply contraction. Over the past six years, China’s annual steel output has stabilized near the 1-billion-tonne plateau. The report argues that the output weakness since H2 2025 stems more from thin—or even negative—mill profitability, prompting market-driven, voluntary production cuts rather than government-mandated restrictions. While markets anticipate a potential ‘Supply-Side Reform 2.0,’ feedback remains mixed and no clear policy consensus on mandatory cuts has yet emerged.

Analysis framework

The report employs a high-frequency monthly output tracking methodology, decomposing global steel supply into ‘China’ and ‘ex-China’ segments for comparative analysis to identify structural differences. For attribution, the firm examines not only YoY changes in aggregate output but also month-on-month fluctuations in daily output to capture short-term production rhythm adjustments. It further integrates historical annual output plateau characteristics and current mill profitability to distinguish between ‘administrative’ and ‘market-driven’ production cuts—thereby assessing the persistence and price elasticity of supply contraction. Additionally, the report traces downstream steel output changes upstream to evaluate their potential impact on demand for raw materials such as coking coal.

Methodology notes

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Assessing industry cycle positioning by disentangling volume (output) and price/profit signals

  In analyzing the drivers behind China’s production cuts, the report does not rely solely on absolute output declines; instead, it incorporates weak mill profitability—a ‘price’ signal—to infer that current cuts reflect enterprise-level, market-driven behavior—not policy enforcement. This volume-price cross-validation helps assess the resilience of supply adjustments and the likelihood of future output recovery.

• Industry/sector analysis frameworkUpstream-downstream supply chain transmission

  Inferring upstream coking coal demand shifts from downstream steel output changes

  The report specifically underscores the implications of Iran’s 46% YoY steel output collapse for the coking coal market. This reflects classic supply chain transmission logic: steel is coking coal’s direct downstream user, and when a major steel-producing country suffers permanent capacity destruction, the resulting upstream raw material demand gap will reshape global coking coal trade flows and pricing dynamics.

Key data

• Global Crude Steel Output, April 2026153.4 million tonnesDown 1.9% YoY
• China Crude Steel Output, April 202683.6 million tonnesDown 2.8% YoY; ~2.79 million tonnes/day
• Ex-China Crude Steel Output, April 202669.8 million tonnesDown 0.8% YoY; +0.5% YoY for Jan–Apr
• India Crude Steel Output Growth, April 2026+3.9%Cumulative Jan–Apr growth: +9.4%; annualized output: 176 million tonnes
• Iran Crude Steel Output, April 20261.8 million tonnesDown sharply 46% YoY
• China Crude Steel Output, FY2025955 million tonnesDown 4.4% YoY; within six-year high-volume plateau

Impact & implications

The report views Iran’s substantial steel capacity destruction as a structural supply shock—particularly bearish for the global coking coal market, given Iran’s status as the world’s tenth-largest steel producer and fifth-largest steel exporter. For China, because current production cuts are profit-driven rather than administratively mandated, output could rebound relatively quickly once mill margins recover—reducing the rigidity of supply constraints. Conversely, India and Vietnam’s sustained high growth is reshaping Asia’s—and ultimately the world’s—steel supply map. If India maintains its current growth trajectory, its output could surpass the combined total of Europe and North America within three years, shifting long-term regional demand centers for iron ore and coking coal.

Risks

• Uncertainty around the extent of Iran’s steel capacity damage and timeline for recovery
• Potential new government-mandated production curbs in China, altering the current market-driven cut logic
• Slowing demand growth in emerging markets like India and Vietnam could trigger unexpectedly large global output declines

What to watch

• Progress on Iran’s steel capacity restoration and its actual impact on coking coal imports
• Changes in Chinese mill profitability and associated production adjustment timing
• Specific policy implementation details regarding China’s ‘Supply-Side Reform 2.0’
• Commissioning progress of new steel capacity in India and Vietnam