China Online Sportswear April GMV Down 9%, Brand Performance Diverges
AI summary card
China Online Sportswear April GMV Down 9%, Brand Performance Diverges
Online sportswear GMV fell 9% YoY in April, with YTD growth dropping to 2%; Adidas, Anta, and Amer performed well, while Nike and Li-Ning faced pressure.
- China's online sportswear GMV fell 9% YoY in April, slowing sharply from +13% in Jan-Feb
- Adidas grew 26% in April, continuing to recover market share lost from 2018-23
- Amer Sports GMV surged 106% in April, with Arc'teryx up 112%
- Anta grew 18% in April, led by Descente (+53%) and Fila (+24%), while core Anta brand rose 3%
- Nike sales fell 4% in April as the brand cuts orders in China to reduce inventory
- Li-Ning GMV fell 10% YoY in April, weakening its investment thesis, with turnaround signals needed
Report interpretation
Overview
Bernstein's China sportswear online monitoring report shows a significant slowdown in April 2026, with online GMV falling 9% YoY and YTD growth dropping to 2%. The strong growth in Jan-Feb was driven by seasonality or holiday effects rather than underlying improvements in consumer sentiment. Brand performance diverged sharply, with Adidas, Amer Sports, and Anta showing strong growth, while Nike and Li-Ning faced sales declines and inventory pressures.
Core views
Market-wide, online sportswear GMV fell 9% YoY in April, with the two-year CAGR dropping from +6% in March to +2%. By category, apparel (+26%) led, while athletic shoes (+1%) saw modest growth, and outdoor (-32%) and yoga (-11%) declined. Douyin has become a key growth engine, accounting for nearly half of online GMV. Brand-wise, Adidas grew 26% in April, shifting its order book toward performance and apparel categories, with 2026 order growth in the low to mid-teens. Amer Sports exceeded expectations, with GMV surging 106% in April (YTD +161%) and Arc'teryx up 112%, validating its multi-brand strategy. Anta grew 18% in April (YTD +21%), led by Descente (+53%) and Fila (+24%), though Kolon missed its full-year 20% growth target. Under pressure, Nike sales fell 4% in April as the brand cut orders in China to reduce market product volume, with more promotional products online. Li-Ning's GMV fell 10% YoY in April (YTD +4%), with its core brand down 8%, weakening its investment thesis until clear turnaround signals emerge. Among other Western brands, On grew strongly (+52%), while Lululemon and Hoka slowed but still gained YTD market share.
Analysis framework
The report uses a proprietary tracking methodology covering major e-commerce platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin, which represent most of China's e-commerce ecosystem. Online sales account for 35-40% of China's total sportswear market and strongly correlate with overall market growth and relative positioning. The analysis examines four sport segments (performance footwear, outdoor apparel & gear, sportswear, yoga & fitness equipment) and individual brand performance. By comparing online GMV growth and market share changes (bps), it assesses brands' relative competitiveness and channel strategy effectiveness in a weak macro cycle.
Methodology notes
Market Share Change Analysis
When overall industry growth slows, tracking basis point (bps) changes in brand market share identifies which brands are gaining share from competitors, indicating relative competitiveness.
E-commerce as a Proxy for Overall Market
The report treats online sales data (35-40% of total) as a strong proxy for overall market growth, using high-frequency online GMV data to infer offline and overall market trends, especially in weak macro cycles where online channels better reflect price-sensitive consumer behavior.
Order Cuts & Inventory Management
Observing brands cutting orders (e.g., Nike) to reduce market product volume analyzes their inventory reduction strategies' impact on short-term sales data, distinguishing weak demand from active supply adjustments.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Amer Sports (AS)Beneficiary: Multi-brand strategy validated, strong portfolio growth
- Strengths
- Arc'teryx as core growth engine, Salomon, Atomic, etc., gaining share
- Comparison
- YTD market share up 241bps, highest among covered peers
- Risks
- Sustainability of high growth
- Adidas (ADS)Beneficiary: Optimized order structure, share recovery
- Strengths
- 2026 order book shifted to performance & apparel, growth drivers switching
- Weaknesses
- Terrace series slowing
- Comparison
- April +26%, outperforming overall market
- Risks
- Order conversion below expectations
- Anta (2020.HK)Beneficiary: Robust multi-brand matrix, Descente/Fila leading
- Strengths
- YTD growth 21%, market share up 147bps
- Weaknesses
- Kolon missed full-year 20% growth target, core Anta brand growth low
- Comparison
- Stable growth trend, outperforming overall market
- Risks
- Kolon growth slowdown
- Nike (NKE)Under pressure: Active order cuts, sales decline
- Strengths
- Offline full-price products relatively better than online
- Weaknesses
- April sales -4%, high inventory pressure
- Comparison
- Underperforming Adidas and Anta
- Risks
- Inventory reduction taking longer than expected
- Li-Ning (2331.HK)Under pressure: Growth reversal, weakened investment thesis
- Weaknesses
- April -10%, core brand -8%, Olympics marketing failed to drive sustainable demand
- Comparison
- Underperforming Anta and international leaders
- Risks
- Trend worsening with no clear turnaround signals
Key data
- April Online Sportswear GMV YoY-9%Sharply slower than +13% in Jan-Feb, YTD growth dropped to 2%
- Adidas April Sales YoY+26%Continues to recover 1000bps share lost from 2018-23
- Amer Sports April GMV YoY+106%YTD growth 161%, Arc'teryx up 112%
- Anta April Online GMV YoY+18%YTD +21%, driving 147bps market share gain
- Nike April Sales YoY-4%Brand cutting orders in China to reduce inventory
- Li-Ning April Online GMV YoY-10%YTD dropped to 4%, core brand -8%
- On April Growth+52%Maintained strong double-digit growth
Impact & implications
The report notes the market has entered a stock competition phase, with intensified brand divergence. Multi-brand strategies (e.g., Amer) and premium positioning perform better in weak markets, while single-brand reliance or inventory pressure (e.g., Nike, Li-Ning) weighs. E-commerce (especially Douyin) has become a strategic focus in weak macro cycles to reach younger, price-sensitive groups. Investors should monitor whether brands can convert short-term awareness (e.g., Olympics marketing) into sustainable demand and signs of inventory adjustment cycles ending.
Risks
- Underlying consumer sentiment not improving
- Brand inventory pressure
- Growth sustainability risks
- Weak macro cycle impacting demand
What to watch
- Whether Li-Ning shows clear turnaround signals
- Whether Anta's Kolon can meet full-year 20% growth target
- Adidas' order book shift to performance & apparel conversion
- Douyin channel share changes and brand penetration