Chagee's Execution Improvements in Store Operations Expected to Reverse GMV Decline
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Chagee's Execution Improvements in Store Operations Expected to Reverse GMV Decline
The institution maintains a Buy rating, expecting GMV to stabilize and gradually recover in 2026.
- 2026 target sales and non-GAAP earnings to remain flat
- Decline in store GMV expected to narrow
- Company optimizes products and upgrades stores
- Target price of $14.50, corresponding to 12x P/E
Report interpretation
Overview
This research report focuses on Chagee Holdings Ltd's (CHA.O) operational strategy adjustments in 2026. After facing intense competition and platform subsidy pressures in 2025, the company is now turning the tide by focusing on improving store operational efficiency, product innovation, and prudent expansion. The institution believes the current strategy aligns with its development direction and can achieve stable GMV with gradual recovery.
Core views
The report notes that Chagee's management adjusted operational priorities in 2026, emphasizing two aspects: first, driving same-store GMV recovery through product innovation and store upgrades/optimization to better align with its premium tea positioning; second, implementing a prudent store expansion plan. The company expects 2026 sales and non-GAAP earnings to stabilize year-over-year, with gradual improvements in unit GMV. The institution observes positive signals, such as consecutive improvements in unit GMV, stable pricing positioning, and active new product launches. It forecasts a 16% year-over-year decline in same-store GMV for Q1 2026, better than Q4 2025's 26%, with sales decline narrowing to near flat in Q2 and possible positive growth for the full year. Regarding profitability, due to lower unit GMV base in 2025 and slower store expansion, the institution revised down 2026-2027 net profit forecasts by 26% and 31%, respectively. Consequently, the target price was lowered from $21.50 to $14.50, representing 12x 2026 P/E with a PEG of 0.6x. Current stock price fluctuations in the $9-11 range reflect market digestion of negative same-store GMV trends, but the institution believes market confidence will recover as store operational adjustments take effect.
Analysis framework
The institution combines financial modeling and industry trend analysis to evaluate Chagee's operational strategy adjustments. First, it analyzes key operational metrics such as GMV, store count, and revenue over recent years to assess growth trends and stability. Second, it examines store operational improvements, including product innovation, store upgrades, and franchise model adjustments, to evaluate their positive impact on store economics. Finally, it adjusts valuations based on store expansion pace, cost control, and earnings forecasts to derive a new target price and rating.
Methodology notes
Industry Supply-Demand Analysis
Analyzes the impact of industry supply-demand changes on company performance by examining store count, GMV, and sales.
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Evaluates operational efficiency and profitability by analyzing trends in free cash flow.
DCF Valuation Model
Estimates intrinsic value by forecasting future cash flows and discounting them to present value to assess valuation rationality.
Industry Chain Transmission Mechanism
Assesses synergistic effects by analyzing how store operational improvements impact upstream procurement, downstream sales, and consumer experience.
Key data
- 2026 Same-Store GMV Decline Forecast-16%Year-over-year decline in Q1 2026, narrower than Q4 2025's -26%
- 2026 Sales Growth Forecast-5%Year-over-year decline in Q1 2026, narrower than Q4 2025's -11%
- 2026 Net New Stores1010 net new stores in 2026, totaling 7,463 stores
- Target Price$14.5033% lower than the original $21.50 target, representing 12x 2026 P/E
Impact & implications
The report believes Chagee's adjusted store operational strategy and optimized product mix can stabilize and grow GMV, thereby improving profitability. This helps consolidate its premium tea brand position in a competitive market and lays the foundation for overseas expansion. The institution argues that current stock prices already reflect negative same-store GMV expectations, and once store adjustments take effect, market interest may revive. Additionally, slowing store expansion and improving store economics can enhance overall profitability.
Risks
- Store operational efficiency improvements fall short of expectations
- New product launches underperform
- Overseas market expansion progresses slower than expected
What to watch
- Q2 2026 store GMV performance
- Store count growth
- New product launch effectiveness