Anta’s 2Q26 operations are back on track; Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ meeting note following its meeting with Anta management at the APAC Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day on July 3, 2026. The core conclusion is that, although the industry backdrop remains weak, Anta’s 2Q26 operations are still broadly progressing according to plan, and management remains confident in full-year guidance, margins, and brand transformation progress; therefore, Goldman Sachs reiterates its Buy rating.

Core views

The core views include: first, 2Q26 trends were broadly in line with internal expectations overall, with sequential improvement in May and June after a weaker April; second, the online channel adjustment for Anta’s core brand is basically complete, and the focus will now shift to product efficiency and cultivating blockbuster SKUs; third, FILA’s trend remains stable, with marketing investment and core category performance supporting brand resilience; fourth, 1H26 margins are likely to meet expectations, while discounting and inventory remain healthy; fifth, Jack Wolfskin’s turnaround in China may be progressing faster than planned, but Europe is still in the stage of inventory, channel, and management adjustments.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on management discussions at the corporate day, providing a qualitative assessment of 2Q26 sales pace, 618 performance, brand segment operations, discounting and inventory, marketing expenses, raw material cost lock-ins, and the Jack Wolfskin turnaround timetable, and combines this with Goldman Sachs’ existing rating and target price history to form its investment conclusion.

Methodology notes

• Fundamental TrackingManagement Meeting Notes

  Validate quarterly trends and the credibility of full-year guidance through management communication

  The report uses information from the corporate day discussions to assess whether 2Q26 is progressing as planned, with a focus on sales pace, discounting, inventory, margins, and brand transformation progress.

• Factor AnalysisGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles

  Goldman Sachs’ factor framework compares the company with covered stocks and industry peers on a percentile basis using indicators such as forward sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, and valuation multiples.

• M&A AssessmentM&A Rank

  Measure the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target on a scale of 1 to 3

  Goldman Sachs states that its globally covered stocks are assessed using an M&A framework for potential acquisition probability; this report does not provide a specific M&A Rank for Anta, and the relevant content is mainly methodological disclosure.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Anta Sports Products (2020.HK)

  Core covered name

  Strengths

  2Q26 operations met expectations, and the 1H26 run rate provides a buffer for full-year guidance; inventory is healthy, discounting is broadly stable; management is confident in full-year guidance.

  Weaknesses

  The industry backdrop is relatively weak, the 1H26 advertising and promotion expense ratio expanded year over year, and Jack Wolfskin is still in a loss-making and adjustment phase.

  Comparison

  FILA’s trend broadly continued from 1Q26, while Anta’s core brand performed in line with expectations and 1Q26 was better than expected; relative to industry weakness, the report language is more constructive.

  Risks

  Weakening consumer demand, deeper discounting, lower-than-expected returns on marketing investment, and slower-than-expected adjustment in Jack Wolfskin Europe.

• FILA

  Important brand segment

  Strengths

  The 2Q26 trend was broadly consistent with 1Q26, with strong performance from core products such as the polo series, women’s sets, and dad shoes.

  Weaknesses

  Requires continued marketing investment, including events such as the Milan fashion show.

  Comparison

  FILA performed steadily during 618, with year-over-year improvement in discounting.

  Risks

  Volatility in demand for premium athleisure and declining efficiency of marketing investment.

• Jack Wolfskin

  Transformation brand segment

  Strengths

  Management acknowledged progress in the China market transformation, which may be ahead of plan; plans include launching new flagship stores in key Chinese cities and updating products and brand identity.

  Weaknesses

  It is still expected to remain loss-making in 2026, while Europe is still undergoing inventory, channel, and management adjustments.

  Comparison

  Progress in China is better than in Europe, with new product launches in Europe expected in 2027.

  Risks

  Delayed adjustment in Europe, store and product updates falling short of expectations, and postponement of the group-level 2028 break-even target.

Key data

• Report Date2026-07-03From the document date and meeting date.
• RatingBuyThe report body explicitly states that the Buy rating is reiterated.
• Target PriceHK$108.00The target price corresponding to the January 20, 2026 report in the target price history table.
• Disclosed PriceHK$72.95The price of Anta Sports Products listed in the company-specific disclosure.
• 2Q26 Sales PaceApril was the weakest, with sequential improvement in May and JuneManagement stated that overall 2Q performance was broadly in line with internal expectations.
• 618 PerformanceThe group overall was largely in line with expectationsFILA performed steadily, the Anta brand met expectations, and group discounting was broadly stable year over year.
• Jack Wolfskin RoadmapContinued losses in 2026, China break-even and narrower Europe losses in 2027, group-level break-even in 2028Management reiterated the brand’s transformation path.

Impact & implications

The investment implication of the report for Anta is positive: in a weak industry environment, the company can still maintain its 2Q26 operating pace, healthy inventory, and stable discounting, indicating a certain level of visibility for full-year guidance; the online adjustment of Anta’s core brand and growth in the running category, FILA’s stable performance, and Jack Wolfskin’s medium- to long-term turnaround path are key supports for future valuation and earnings expectations.

Risks

• Industry demand weaker than expected may drag on 2H26 sales and delivery of full-year guidance.
• If deeper discounting in Anta’s adult products persists, it may affect the brand’s pricing system and margins.
• The 1H26 advertising and promotion expense ratio expanded year over year; if conversion efficiency is insufficient, it may suppress earnings elasticity.
• Jack Wolfskin is still in a loss-making period, and inventory, channel, and management adjustments in Europe carry execution risks.
• Although the impact of raw material inflation is expected to emerge only in 2027, future cost pressure still warrants attention.

What to watch

• Whether the improvement trend in May and June can continue into 2H26.
• Whether, after the online channel adjustment of Anta’s core brand, product efficiency and blockbuster SKU cultivation can deliver incremental growth.
• Whether greater participation in running communities and marathons can translate into demand and brand awareness for the running category.
• Sales of FILA’s core products and returns on marketing investment.
• Sales performance of Jack Wolfskin after updates to China flagship stores, new products, and brand identity, as well as progress in Europe’s adjustment.
• Whether discounting, inventory, and margins continue to remain healthy.