2026 ASCO Preview: Key Clinical Data Watchlist for Chinese Innovative Drug Developers

Overview

This report focuses on the 2026 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting, summarizing key clinical data highlights from Chinese healthcare companies under Nomura coverage. The report notes that China has set new records this year with 94 oral presentations and 12 Late-Breaking Abstracts (LBAs), reflecting the growing global influence of Chinese innovative oncology drug development. It provides detailed updates on pipeline progress and market expectations for Hengrui Medicine, Akeso, BeiGene, and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group.

Core views

Akeso (9926.HK, Neutral): The HARMONi-6 study is one of the most anticipated endpoints at this year’s ASCO, with overall survival (OS) data to be released on May 31. Market consensus expects a hazard ratio (HR) in the range of 0.70–0.72, while some optimistic investors anticipate 0.68–0.70. This data is critical for evaluating the competitive positioning of its core product. BeiGene (6160.HK / ONC.US, Buy): Will present over 60 abstracts at ASCO. Beyond hematology, early solid tumor data are drawing attention. Its CDK4 inhibitor BGB-43395 combined with letrozole in HR+/HER2- breast cancer shows lower hematologic toxicity but higher gastrointestinal toxicity (diarrhea incidence increases with dose). Additionally, the GPC3×4-1BB bispecific antibody BGB-B2033 achieved a 20.3% objective response rate (ORR) in hepatocellular carcinoma patients, with manageable hepatotoxicity. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK, Buy): Updates four clinical datasets for SYS6010 (EGFR ADC). In advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, confirmed ORR is 35%, disease control rate (DCR) is 67.5%, and median progression-free survival (mPFS) is 4.6 months; grade ≥3 treatment-related adverse events occurred in 64.6% of patients. The B7-H3 ADC SYS6043 showed exceptional results in a breast cancer subgroup, with an ORR of 83.8% and DCR of 100%. Hengrui Medicine (600276.SS / 1276.HK, Buy): Will showcase over 80 clinical studies—the highest among peers—demonstrating unmatched pipeline breadth in oncology innovation. Key assets include HER2 ADC SHR-A1811 for first-line HER2+ metastatic colorectal cancer, c-Met ADC SHR-1826 for advanced solid tumors (primarily lung cancer), CLDN18.2 ADC SHR-A1904 for gastric/gastroesophageal junction cancer, and Nectin-4 ADC SHR-A2102 for first-line advanced non-small cell lung cancer. Although most are in early stages, safety profiles are manageable and efficacy signals are encouraging.

Analysis framework

Using ASCO as a temporal anchor, the report employs an 'event-driven + pipeline tracking' analytical framework. First, it establishes the macro context of rising global prominence for Chinese innovative drugs by quantifying the increase in Chinese oral presentations and LBAs at ASCO. Then, it dissects key upcoming clinical trial designs, market expectations, and actual data company-by-company, focusing on hard endpoints such as hazard ratio (HR), objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and safety profiles. Finally, it assesses each company’s competitive position in oncology innovation based on pipeline breadth and depth. This approach transforms academic conferences into verifiable investment observation windows.

Methodology notes

• Event Arbitrage and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Using major international academic conferences like ASCO as catalyst nodes to pre-analyze upcoming clinical data and market expectations

  In innovative drug investing, data readouts from major conferences often drive short-term stock price volatility. By forecasting market consensus ranges for key metrics like HR and ORR, the report helps investors identify potential expectation gaps.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Quantifying China’s growing international influence in drug R&D through historical growth in ASCO oral presentations and LBA counts

  Although not directly tied to pricing here, the 'volume' dimension (number of studies, LBA share) serves as a proxy for measuring industrial competitiveness, reflecting China’s shift from follower to peer—and potentially leader—in oncology drug development.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Akeso (9926.HK)

  HARMONi-6 OS data to be released—one of the most watched endpoints at ASCO

  Strengths

  Clear OS benefit expectation in a major indication for its core product

  Weaknesses

  Currently rated Neutral; market highly sensitive to HR thresholds

  Comparison

  First Phase III study among PD-1/VEGF bispecifics to report OS data

  Risks

  HR above 0.72 could trigger negative market reaction

• BeiGene (6160.HK / ONC.US)

  Early data from CDK4 inhibitor and GPC3 bispecific reveal new solid tumor directions

  Strengths

  Lower hematologic toxicity than peers, offering differentiated safety advantage

  Weaknesses

  Higher GI toxicity limits high-dose usage

  Comparison

  Lower hematologic but higher GI toxicity compared to existing CDK4/6 inhibitors

  Risks

  GI toxicity may affect patient compliance and combination therapy strategies

• CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK)

  EGFR ADC and B7-H3 ADC show high response rates in advanced solid tumors

  Strengths

  SYS6043 achieves >80% ORR and 100% DCR in breast cancer subgroup

  Weaknesses

  High ≥3 grade TRAE rate (64.6%) for SYS6010

  Comparison

  ORR and PFS data competitive within the EGFR ADC landscape

  Risks

  Safety concerns may constrain future registrational trial design

• Hengrui Medicine (600276.SS / 1276.HK)

  Over 80 studies demonstrate the broadest oncology innovation pipeline

  Strengths

  Multi-target ADC portfolio covering lung, gastric, and colorectal cancers

  Weaknesses

  Most assets remain in early stages; commercialization is distant

  Comparison

  Pipeline breadth significantly exceeds domestic peers

  Risks

  Despite encouraging early data, late-stage failure risk remains

Key data

• Number of Chinese Oral Presentations at ASCO94Record high, reflecting increased weight of Chinese oncology innovation
• Number of Chinese LBAs at ASCO12Record high
• Market Expectation for Akeso HARMONi-6 OS HR0.70–0.72Some optimistic expectations at 0.68–0.70
• Diarrhea Incidence with BeiGene BGB-43395 (600mg cohort)90%GI toxicity increases with dose; ≥3 grade accounts for 30%
• CSPC SYS6043 ORR in Breast Cancer83.8%DCR reached 100%; data from advanced solid tumor subgroup
• Number of Studies Presented by Hengrui at ASCO>80Broadest oncology innovation pipeline among peers

Impact & implications

The report views the 2026 ASCO meeting as a critical window for Chinese innovative drug developers to validate their R&D capabilities. If Akeso’s OS data meet or exceed expectations, it will strengthen its competitive position in large indications. BeiGene’s differentiated safety profile in solid tumors may open new development pathways. CSPC’s multi-target ADC platform shows significant late-stage potential. Hengrui Medicine reinforces its leadership through unparalleled pipeline breadth. These data not only impact short-term valuations but also bolster the long-term narrative of Chinese innovative drugs going global.

Risks

• Clinical data falling short of market expectations could cause significant stock price volatility
• Drug safety issues (e.g., gastrointestinal toxicity, high-grade adverse events) may limit clinical adoption
• Early-stage results may not be reproducible in later registrational trials

What to watch

• Exact OS HR value from Akeso’s HARMONi-6 study (to be announced May 31)
• BeiGene’s dose optimization and combination strategies for its CDK4 inhibitor
• Validation of CSPC’s SYS6043 in larger breast cancer cohorts
• Maturity and follow-up updates of Hengrui’s multiple ADC assets in Phase I/II trials