China ESS shipments hit a record, global storage demand continues to be revised higher

Overview

This report is Bernstein’s monthly global ESS tracking note, focusing on China, the United States, and Germany with respect to energy storage battery shipments, installations, manufacturing capacity, bidding, and major battery supplier market share. The report states that China’s storage shipments set a new high in May 2026, domestic demand remains the main driver, and overseas shipments are growing faster but from a smaller base. As battery costs decline, policy support strengthens, storage economics improve, and grid stability demand rises, global ESS demand growth continues to exceed prior expectations.

Core views

The central view is that China’s storage demand is strong and is absorbing industry capacity: in May, China ESS shipments were 97.8 GWh, up 103% year-on-year, and reached 406.9 GWh YTD 2026, up 107% year-on-year; capacity utilization stood at 94%, up significantly from a year earlier. Bidding data is also robust, indicating sufficient demand pipeline ahead. At the company level, CATL, EVE, Hithium, BYD, and CALB are the main suppliers, with CATL maintaining leadership with a 22.4% YTD share. By region, US installations were weak, while Germany benefitted from large-scale storage growth.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly tracking framework, integrating installation, shipment, production, manufacturing capacity, bidding, and award metrics and segmenting the data by country and major battery producers. The data is updated with about a one-month lag and is used to assess ESS demand, supply utilization, competitive positioning, and future demand trends.

Methodology notes

• Industry monthly trackingGlobal ESS Tracker

  Track storage cycle through shipment, installation, capacity, and bidding data

  The report places China shipments, US and Germany installations, supplier capacity, and bid-award data in one framework to gauge ESS demand, supply tightness, and shifts in company share.

• Supply-demand analysisCapacity utilization vs. shipments comparison

  High utilization suggests demand catching up with capacity

  China’s ESS manufacturing capacity utilization rose from 73% year-on-year to 94% in the same period, and the report uses this as evidence of tighter short-term market conditions.

• Company comparisonBattery supplier share and growth comparison

  Assess competitive positioning using shipment volumes, market share, and year-over-year growth

  CATL leads with 21.0 GWh of monthly shipments and a 22.4% YTD share; EVE, Hithium, BYD, and CALB are key followers, while Ganfeng, Great Power, and Cornex show faster growth.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CATL

  Core beneficiary and industry leader

  Strengths

  May ESS shipments were 21.0 GWh, up 75% year-on-year; YTD 2026 market share is 22.4%, and the report cites CATL as one of the best ways to participate in the storage theme.

  Weaknesses

  Although it leads in market share, CATL faces competition from EVE, Hithium, BYD, CALB, and other higher-growth peers.

  Comparison

  Significantly ahead of EVE’s 9.5%, Hithium’s 9.4%, BYD’s 7.7%, and CALB’s 6.7% YTD shares.

  Risks

  If ESS demand growth slows in the second half, pricing competition intensifies, or overseas installations miss expectations, valuation and earnings expectations could come under pressure.

• EVE

  Major ESS battery supplier

  Strengths

  May ESS shipments were 8.6 GWh, up 56% year-on-year; YTD 2026 market share is 9.5%.

  Weaknesses

  Absolute share remains clearly below CATL.

  Comparison

  Share is slightly above Hithium and materially above BYD and CALB.

  Risks

  It needs to sustain shipment growth and utilization to avoid margin pressure from industry competition.

• Hithium

  Major ESS battery supplier, not covered by Bernstein

  Strengths

  May ESS shipments were 8.5 GWh, up roughly 55% year-on-year; YTD 2026 market share is 9.4%.

  Weaknesses

  Coverage is limited, with insufficient public rating information.

  Comparison

  Close to EVE and one of the major competitors behind CATL.

  Risks

  Whether high growth can be sustained and whether price pressure versus leading suppliers remains manageable.

• BYD

  Covered company and major ESS supplier

  Strengths

  May ESS shipments were 7.5 GWh, up 70% year-on-year; YTD 2026 market share is 7.7%.

  Weaknesses

  ESS share is lower than CATL, EVE, and Hithium.

  Comparison

  Share is above CALB but still behind the top three.

  Risks

  The storage business must maintain deployment efficiency across EVs, battery, and storage businesses.

• CALB

  Major ESS battery supplier, not covered by Bernstein

  Strengths

  May ESS shipments were about 6.2 GWh, up 55% year-on-year; YTD 2026 market share is 6.7%.

  Weaknesses

  Share is relatively low versus leading suppliers.

  Comparison

  Behind CATL, EVE, Hithium, and BYD.

  Risks

  If supply expansion in the industry is too fast, non-top-tier suppliers may face greater pricing and utilization pressure.

Key data

• China May ESS battery shipments97.8 GWh, up 103% year-on-year, up 5% sequentiallyA new monthly high; domestic shipments are the main driver.
• China YTD 2026 ESS shipments406.9 GWh, up 107% year-on-yearAbove the report’s prior forecast path of 86% global ESS demand growth for 2026.
• China May ESS manufacturing capacityaround 100.0 GWh, up 61% year-on-year, up 2% sequentiallyCapacity utilization about 94%.
• China May ESS bid volume54.9 GWh, up 153% year-on-yearYTD 2026 bid volume was 279.5 GWh, up 200% year-on-year.
• China May ESS award volume42.4 GWh, up 20% year-on-year, up 76% sequentiallyIndicates a still-strong execution pipeline.
• CATL May ESS shipments21.0 GWh, up 75% year-on-year22.4% YTD market share in 2026, continuing to lead the industry.
• United States May ESS installations1.9 GWh, down 56% year-on-yearYTD 2026 installations were 11.9 GWh, down 24% year-on-year.
• Germany May ESS installations0.6 GWh, up 28% year-on-yearYTD 2026 installations were 3.4 GWh, up 37%; large-scale storage contributed meaningfully.
• Global ESS demand forecast2026: 1,023 GWh, up 86% year-on-year; 2030: 2,109 GWhThe report expects a roughly 20% annualized growth rate from 2026 onward over four years.

Impact & implications

Strong China storage shipments, sustained high utilization, and active bidding collectively indicate an improving cycle for the ESS value chain. For investors, the report emphasizes that CATL remains the most direct beneficiary of the storage theme, while EVE, Hithium, BYD, and CALB also have tracking value on share and shipment metrics. At the regional level, China is the core incremental contributor, while weaker short-term US data could cause expectation noise, and Germany’s large-scale storage growth validates broader international demand diffusion.

Risks

• The report expects ESS growth to slow in the second half, and the current high-growth pace may not continue linearly.
• US ESS installations are down sharply year-on-year; if weakness persists, it could weigh on global demand expectations.
• Competition in the China storage value chain is intense; lower battery prices improve economics but may also compress supplier margins.
• Bidding and award data are not equivalent to final installations; project execution timing remains uncertain.
• Data is sourced from multiple channels and is delayed by about one month, and monthly volatility and methodology differences may affect short-term interpretation.

What to watch

• Whether China’s monthly ESS shipments continue at or above the 100 GWh level.
• Whether China’s ESS capacity utilization remains elevated or declines as new capacity is ramped.
• Whether bid and award volumes continue to convert into actual shipments and installations.
• How market shares evolve among CATL, EVE, Hithium, BYD, and CALB.
• Whether US EIA installation data returns to growth and whether Germany’s large-scale storage growth continues.
• Whether 2026 global ESS demand continues to stay above the 1,023 GWh forecast path.