China sportswear online sales slip slightly in March, with sharp brand divergence

Overview

This report is Bernstein’s monthly tracking of China’s online sportswear market, covering major e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin. The report notes that March 2026 China online sportswear GMV declined 3% year over year, a marked slowdown from 13% year-over-year growth in January and February; however, year-to-date growth was still about 7%, and the two-year CAGR remained positive. The slowdown may partly reflect front-loaded spending ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, while consumers remain resilient but more selective in their sportswear spending.

Core views

The core view is that the industry slowed in March, but brand-level divergence widened. Adidas, Amer Sports, and smaller Western brands such as On, Hoka, and Lululemon continued to outperform; Nike came under pressure as it cut orders in China and cleared channel inventory; Li Ning turned negative after the post-Olympic brand visibility boost faded; and Anta, while still outperforming the market, saw growth slow materially in March. Douyin is taking share online from Taobao and Tmall and has become an important channel shaping brand online growth.

Analysis framework

The report uses an online sales tracking framework to monitor GMV changes across Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin, and to break performance down by brand, channel, and category. The analysis focuses on year-over-year growth, year-to-date performance, two-year CAGR, market share changes, and the impact of channel structure on brand positioning and promotion strategies.

Methodology notes

• online retail trackingChina online sportswear market monitoring

  Track major sports brands’ online GMV and share changes through Tmall, Taobao, and Douyin

  This method covers important platforms in China’s e-commerce ecosystem. The report states that e-commerce accounts for about 35%-40% of China’s total sportswear market and is highly correlated with overall market growth and relative competitive position.

• category breakdownfour major sportswear subcategories

  Athletic footwear, outdoor apparel and equipment, sportswear apparel, yoga and fitness equipment

  The report examines demand structure changes through four subcategories. In March, apparel and yoga performed relatively well, while outdoor and athletic footwear declined.

• channel analysisDouyin penetration and share migration

  Douyin’s share of China online sportswear GMV is increasing

  The report notes that Douyin is nearing half of online sportswear GMV and is taking share from Taobao and Tmall; premium brands such as Amer Sports and Lululemon have relatively low Douyin exposure, consistent with their premium positioning and brand-controlled channel strategy.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Nike

  covered brand

  Strengths

  Its offline channel is relatively better than online; Pou Sheng’s year-to-date performance is stronger than Nike’s online sales.

  Weaknesses

  March online sales fell 13% year over year, as the brand cut spring orders to reduce market inventory.

  Comparison

  Weaker than Adidas and Amer Sports, with Douyin down 17%.

  Risks

  Order cuts, pressure from online promotional inventory, and loss of China market share.

• Adidas

  covered brand

  Strengths

  Up 17% year over year in March, continuing to recapture historically lost share; its 2026 order book has shifted toward Performance and other Lifestyle products.

  Weaknesses

  Slower growth in the Terrace line could affect the product cycle.

  Comparison

  Clearly outperformed the overall online sportswear market.

  Risks

  A slower-than-expected product cycle transition or a slower pace of share recovery.

• Li Ning

  covered brand

  Strengths

  Previously benefited from Olympic-related brand visibility.

  Weaknesses

  March GMV fell 9% year over year; the flagship Li-Ning brand swung from +18% growth in January-February to -6% in March, while Aigle and DHS continued to weigh on results.

  Comparison

  Weaker than Anta, Adidas, and Amer Sports.

  Risks

  Uncertainty over whether the Olympic visibility boost can be converted into sustained growth after the hype fades.

• Anta

  covered brand

  Strengths

  Still up 16% year to date; Descente grew 68% in March and 55% year to date.

  Weaknesses

  March GMV rose only 2% year over year; the Anta core brand fell 8%, and Fila slowed sharply to 3% growth.

  Comparison

  Still outperforming the overall market, but with a clear slowdown versus January-February.

  Risks

  March weakness may be seasonal or may reflect a more fundamental change in consumer behavior.

• Amer Sports

  covered brand

  Strengths

  Online GMV rose 255% year over year in March, with Arc'teryx, Salomon, Atomic, and Wilson all substantially outperforming the market.

  Weaknesses

  Part of the high growth comes from a low base.

  Comparison

  The strongest growth among the main tracked brands, with online share up 299 bps in March.

  Risks

  Sustainability of premium brand growth and the risk of growth normalizing as the base rises.

• Lululemon, On, Hoka

  related brands

  Strengths

  Smaller Western brands are delivering strong double-digit growth off a low base in China, with brand awareness and trial continuing to improve.

  Weaknesses

  Scale and channel coverage remain relatively limited.

  Comparison

  Growth is materially faster than the overall market.

  Risks

  Low-base tailwinds fading, intensifying competition, and volatility in premium spending.

Key data

• China online sportswear GMVMarch 2026 YoY -3%A sharp slowdown from +13% YoY in January-February.
• 2-year CAGRMarch 2026 +6%Below the roughly +20% two-year CAGR in January-February.
• Year-to-date online sportswear growth+7%Primarily driven by apparel and yoga categories.
• March category performanceApparel +15%, yoga +1%, outdoor -13%, athletic footwear -5%Clear divergence in category demand structure.
• Nike March online sales-13%Tmall/Taobao were broadly flat, while Douyin declined 17%.
• Adidas March growth+17%Continued to recapture roughly 1,000 bps of share lost between 2018 and 2023.
• Li Ning March GMV-9%A clear weakening from +12% in January-February, with quarterly market share down 18 bps.
• Anta March GMV+2%Below +25% in January-February, but still up 16% year to date.
• Amer Sports March online GMV+255%Up 277% year to date, with online share rising 299 bps in March.
• Arc'teryx March growth+393%Still the main growth engine within the Amer Sports portfolio.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that China’s sportswear industry is not weakening across the board, but rather entering a phase of sharper brand and channel differentiation. Companies with clear product cycles, strong brand momentum, and premium positioning are more likely to gain share; brands that rely on promotions, order adjustments, or short-term event-driven hype face greater growth pressure. The rise of Douyin also means brands need to rebalance between low-cost reach and brand control.

Risks

• Chinese consumers may become more cautious about sportswear spending, which could keep industry growth slowing.
• Front-loaded spending around the Lunar New Year holiday may distort March year-over-year comparisons, so the true demand trend still needs to be validated by subsequent months.
• The rise in Douyin’s share could intensify price competition and affect brands’ premium positioning and margins.
• Order cuts, product-cycle transitions, or promotional inventory pressure may weigh on near-term GMV.
• Some high-growth brands are starting from a low base, so future growth rates may naturally normalize.

What to watch

• Whether online GMV rebounds in April and the second quarter, to determine if March’s slowdown was seasonal or structural.
• Changes in Douyin’s share of online GMV across brands, and whether it continues to gain share from Taobao and Tmall.
• Whether Adidas Performance and Lifestyle new orders can sustain low-double-digit to high-double-digit growth.
• Whether Nike’s China inventory and full-price sell-through improve after order cuts.
• Whether Li Ning can convert Olympic-related brand visibility into sustainable sales growth.
• Whether Anta’s core brand and Fila regain momentum after March, and whether Descente’s high growth can continue.
• The sustainability of high growth at Amer Sports’ Arc'teryx, Salomon, Atomic, and Wilson.