Initial China Healthcare Review at ASCO’26: Dense ADC and multispecific antibody data, with solid overall efficacy but safety and commercialization still needing validation

Overview

Based on the regular ASCO’26 abstracts, this report provides an initial commentary on the upcoming oncology clinical data to be presented by Chinese healthcare and biotech companies. The report believes that innovative drug data from Chinese pharmaceutical companies overall show a profile of “solid efficacy, with safety mostly manageable,” with ADCs, multispecific antibodies, PD-1/VEGF-type combinations, and targeted therapies remaining the key modalities.

Core views

The core view is that Chinese innovative drugs continue to produce commercially meaningful data across multiple highly competitive indications, but investment judgments cannot rely only on ORR or early pCR; they need to incorporate OS maturity, phase III reproducibility, regulatory submission timing, standard-of-care competition, toxicity burden, and commercialization pathways in China and overseas. The report is relatively positive on some ADC and bispecific datasets, while also cautioning that if grade 3+ TRAEs are elevated, sample sizes are small, or control groups are weak, the market should remain measured in its interpretation.

Analysis framework

The report uses a rapid-review approach to conference abstracts, comparing each pipeline program on efficacy endpoints, safety, sample size, indication positioning, and comparable standard treatments, and mapping readouts to subsequent catalysts such as NMPA NDA, phase III expansion, OS readouts, conference updates, and potential commercialization.

Methodology notes

• Clinical data interpretationEfficacy-safety balance framework

  Simultaneously assess efficacy metrics such as ORR, DCR, PFS, OS, and pCR alongside safety metrics such as TRAEs, discontinuations, and deaths.

  The report does not judge program value solely on the basis of a single efficacy metric; instead, it repeatedly emphasizes whether the strength of efficacy is sufficient to offset the safety burden, and whether the results can support filing, phase III expansion, or commercialization.

• Peer comparisonCross-sectional benchmark against similar therapies

  Compare Chinese company data with comparable therapies such as T-DXd, EV+pembrolizumab, tarlatamab, lurbinectedin, KEYNOTE-B61, and selpercatinib.

  This comparison is used to judge whether the data are merely statistically positive or truly clinically and commercially differentiated.

• Catalyst trackingConference disclosure-regulatory-commercialization pathway

  Focus on ASCO’26 updates, NMPA submission or approval, OS maturity, phase III validation, and ex-China registrability.

  The report links near-term abstract data to whether they can subsequently translate into labels, prescriptions, and revenue, emphasizing the pathway for data monetization.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China innovative drug sector

  Sector thematic asset driven by dense ASCO’26 data disclosures

  Strengths

  Multiple companies posted high ORR, PFS, or pCR signals across ADCs, multispecific antibodies, and targeted therapies, demonstrating continued improvement in R&D depth.

  Weaknesses

  Many programs remain early-stage or single-arm, with insufficient sample size and follow-up, and some carry heavier high-grade toxicities.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional standard treatments and some global peers, Chinese programs already show apparent data advantages in certain indications.

  Risks

  If subsequent OS remains immature, phase III replication fails, or commercialization is diluted by price competition, data highlights may not translate into investment returns.

• Hengrui - H (1276.HK)

  Covered rating name and source of multiple pipeline ASCO’26 datasets

  Strengths

  Multiple pipelines across HCC, HER2-positive CRC, mCRPC, and MIBC are advancing simultaneously, with some programs having filing or phase III expansion potential.

  Weaknesses

  Some results show only modest efficacy magnitude, while safety and OS maturity remain key points of debate.

  Comparison

  SHR-A1811 faces T-DXd’s first-mover advantage; the SHR-A2102 combination needs to be benchmarked against EV+pembrolizumab.

  Risks

  High-grade TRAEs, crowded competition, commercialization execution, and uncertain regulatory timing.

• Akeso / ivonescimab

  Data catalysts from HARMONi-6 and multiple indications

  Strengths

  Data in LA-HNSCC and 2L SCLC both show strong response rates, and PD-1 mechanism-related biomarkers also provide explanatory power.

  Weaknesses

  Some safety details have not yet been fully disclosed, and cross-trial comparisons are affected by differences in treatment lines.

  Comparison

  The 2L SCLC data appear better than historical data for tarlatamab and lurbinectedin, but cannot be directly equated with head-to-head superiority.

  Risks

  If the interim OS result of HARMONi-6 falls short of expectations, market confidence in the ivonescimab platform could be affected.

• Innovent / IBI363

  Core readout for PD-1xIL-2 alpha-biased bsAb in 1L NSCLC

  Strengths

  The 3-1.5 mg/kg regimen shows very high ORR and DCR, with fairly balanced responses across squamous and non-squamous disease.

  Weaknesses

  Grade≥3 TEAE is high, and treatment-related discontinuation and death signals require continued monitoring.

  Comparison

  ORR is higher than the reference level of around 70% for PD-1xVEGF bispecific plus chemotherapy.

  Risks

  If safety worsens after sample expansion, it could limit broad first-line use.

• ADC thematic assets

  Investment theme formed collectively by data from multiple ADCs including SKB500, SYS6043, 9MW2821, HLX43, and CRB-701

  Strengths

  Multiple targets are showing high response rates in indications such as SCLC, ESCC, UC, NSCLC, breast cancer, and ovarian cancer.

  Weaknesses

  There are major differences across ADCs in target, payload, dose, and toxicity, so they cannot be simply ranked by ORR.

  Comparison

  Some programs are challenging globally validated therapies such as Tivdak, EV+pembrolizumab, and T-DXd.

  Risks

  Hematologic toxicity, ILD/pneumonitis, DLT, unexplained deaths, and long-term safety may become constraints on labeling and commercialization.

Key data

• ASCO’26 timelineAbstracts released on 2026-05-25 HKT, conference held from 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-02Akeso HARMONi-6 interim OS readout is considered one of the most important data presentations among Chinese companies.
• Hengrui camrelizumab + rivoceranib + TACEInterim phase III PFS HR of 0.73 in HCCThe result is statistically clear and meaningful for filing, but the magnitude of efficacy is not disruptive; high-grade TRAEs and final OS will determine positioning.
• Hengrui trastuzumab rezetecan (SHR-A1811)First positive phase III ADC result in refractory HER2-positive CRCVersus the low baseline of around 4-5% ORR for SOC, the PFS and ORR are sufficient to support filing, with NMPA NDA timing as the next catalyst.
• Hengrui fuzuloparibOverall rPFS HR of 0.71 and OS HR of 0.96 in mCRPC; subgroup HR of 0.51 in DRD+Overall benefit is positive but modest, while the subgroup is more clinically meaningful; commercialization will need to compete against existing PARP combinations.
• Innovent IBI363ORR of 86.4%, cORR of 81.8%, and DCR of 100% in the 3-1.5 mg/kg cohort for 1L NSCLCEfficacy is stronger than the roughly 70% ORR benchmark for PD-1xVEGF bispecific plus chemotherapy, but grade≥3 TEAE was 65.2%.
• Akeso ivonescimab neoadjuvant LA-HNSCCRadiologic ORR of 100%, overall pCR of 50%, and both R0 resection and laryngopharyngeal preservation at 100%Efficacy and biomarker signals are strong, but safety details remain limited.
• Akeso ivonescimab + liposomal irinotecanConfirmed ORR of 61.7%, DCR of 91.7%, and mPFS of 9.8 months in 2L SCLCSuperficially better than historical data for tarlatamab and lurbinectedin, but differences in line-of-therapy population warrant a discount.
• Kelun Biotech SKB500Overall cORR of 54.5% at the 12 mg/kg dose, with ORR of 71.4% in SCLC and 55.6% in ESCCThe B7-H3 ADC shows attractive efficacy and safety in refractory solid tumors, with grade≥3 TRAE of 16.5%.
• CSPC SYS6043Across 502 patients in 8 tumor types, ORR was 75% in SCLC, 83.8% in breast cancer, and 57.1% in non-squamous NSCLCThe B7-H3 ADC shows broad-spectrum efficacy, but grade≥3 TRAE was 28.5%, with anemia as the main toxicity.
• Hutchmed savolitinibORR of 32% and time to response of 1.4 months in MET-amplified gastric cancerThe NDA has received NMPA priority review and, if approved, could become China’s first selective MET inhibitor for gastric cancer.
• Mabwell 9MW2821 + toripalimabORR of 83% and 18-month OS rate of 68% in urothelial carcinomaThe data are strong, but the sample includes both treatment-naive and previously treated patients, so direct comparison with EV+pembrolizumab should be made cautiously.
• 3SBio SSGJ-707ORR of 67.6% and mPFS of 12.4 months in 1L NSCLC; ORR of 80-85.7% in 1L ECThe PD-1/VEGF bispecific shows competitive efficacy, but pooled grade≥3 TRAE was 42.2% in NSCLC and 68.8% in EC.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report reinforces the narrative that Chinese innovative drugs are shifting from “fast followers” to “comparable or even locally leading,” especially in ADCs, bispecifics/trispecifics, and some targeted therapies. However, near-term stock-price catalysts are more likely to come from clear OS readouts, NDA submissions/approvals, and conference updates; medium- to long-term value will depend on phase III validation, toxicity management, label differentiation, and global partnering capability.

Risks

• Multiple datasets come from early-stage, single-arm, or small-sample studies, creating phase III replication risk.
• OS remains immature for multiple programs, and short-term ORR, PFS, or pCR may not necessarily translate into survival benefit.
• High-grade TRAEs, discontinuations, DLTs, or death signals could weaken the commercial value of efficacy data.
• Cross-trial comparisons are affected by differences in treatment line, baseline risk, follow-up duration, and control arms, and cannot be directly equated with head-to-head superiority.
• For programs with relatively clear domestic approval pathways in China, overseas registration and commercialization may still be constrained by control design, evolving standards of care, and the competitive landscape.

What to watch

• 2026-05-31 interim OS readout of Akeso HARMONi-6.
• Timing of Hengrui SHR-A1811 NMPA NDA submission.
• Final OS and safety update for Hengrui C+R+TACE.
• Phase III design and safety follow-up for ADC programs such as Mabwell 9MW2821, Hengrui SHR-A2102, and CSPC SYS6043.
• Efficacy and grade≥3 AE trend in subsequent expanded samples after the recommended dose for Innovent IBI363.
• Hutchmed savolitinib NMPA approval decision in H2 2026.
• Whether SSGJ-707 can demonstrate sufficient efficacy improvement in NSCLC and EC to offset its higher toxicity burden.