Central Bank Gold Purchases Slowing Less Than Expected, Likely to Re-Accelerate

Overview

This research report analyzes global central bank gold purchasing trends, noting that the slowdown has been less pronounced than anticipated and that purchases may re-accelerate going forward. Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on gold and reiterates its year-end 2026 target price of $5,400/oz.

Core views

The report notes that since August 2025, central bank gold purchases have systematically fallen short of flows implied by the London physical balance. The updated 12-month moving average (12MMA) reached 50 tonnes/month in March, up from the previous 29 tonnes/month. Goldman Sachs expects central bank purchases to rebound to 60 tonnes/month over the coming months and believes recent geopolitical developments will further boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Nonetheless, gold prices face near-term pressure due to equity market volatility and heightened liquidity needs. The report infers central bank gold flows from UK customs data and observes that some sovereign transactions have not been captured in UK trade statistics since August 2025. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasting model to incorporate unrecorded sovereign gold flows.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs infers central bank gold purchase volumes from UK customs data, given that the London over-the-counter (OTC) market serves as the primary venue for sovereign buyers. The report assumes all gold imported into the UK is either exported or held in London vaults; thus, UK net exports should align with outflows from London vaults. However, this alignment has weakened since August 2025, suggesting that some sovereign gold transactions have not been captured in trade statistics. Based on this observation, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasting model to include unrecorded sovereign gold flows. The report also integrates analysis of geopolitical risk and investor liquidity requirements to provide a comprehensive assessment of future gold price dynamics.

Methodology notes

• Supply-Demand Framework

  The sector’s core focus is on changes in central bank gold purchases on the supply side.

  The report infers central bank gold purchase volumes from UK customs data, illustrating how a supply-demand framework can be used to understand dynamic shifts in the gold market.

• Valuation Method

  Price forecasting based on historical data and geopolitical factors.

  The report combines historical data and geopolitical risk assessments to forecast future gold prices, demonstrating how multiple factors can be integrated to evaluate gold’s long-term value.

Key data

• Updated 12MMA50 tonnes/monthCompared to the prior 29 tonnes/month
• Expected Purchase Volume Over Coming Months60 tonnes/monthExpected rebound over the coming months
• Year-End 2026 Target Price$5400/ozMaintaining bullish stance

Impact & implications

The report concludes that a rebound in central bank gold purchases will exert positive upward pressure on gold prices, especially amid intensifying geopolitical risks, which would further elevate demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, near-term price pressures may persist due to private investors’ liquidity needs.

Risks

• Near-term liquidity needs among private investors could weigh on gold prices.
• Geopolitical risks may affect demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

What to watch

• Changes in central bank gold purchase volumes over the coming months.
• Developments in geopolitical risk.