Nomura expects the USDCNY fixing at 6.8007

Overview

This report is a short model forecast from Nomura's Asia FX Strategy team, focusing on the USDCNY fixing rate. The report's main forecast is 6.8007, alongside a forecast of 6.8012 incorporating the counter-cyclical factor. The text also presents model errors, overnight contributions, daily changes in the USDCNY fixing, and a calendar of upcoming Chinese macro events.

Core views

The core view is that the USDCNY fixing model value has moved lower from the previous forecast, with the main model forecasting 6.8007, below the previous forecast of 6.8054; incorporating the counter-cyclical factor produces a forecast of 6.8012. The report provides no equity buy or sell recommendations, but focuses on a short-term quantitative forecast of the RMB fixing.

Analysis framework

The report uses an FX fixing model framework, comparing the current model forecast, the previous forecast, the previous official spot close, and the adjusted forecast incorporating the counter-cyclical factor. It uses overnight weighted contributions, recent model errors, and the event calendar to help explain short-term fixing risks.

Methodology notes

• FX quantitative modelUSDCNY fix model projection

  Fixing model forecast

  Uses a model to estimate the official USDCNY fixing level and discloses point-spread changes relative to the previous forecast and the official spot close.

• Policy factor adjustmentcounter-cyclical factor adjustment

  Counter-cyclical factor

  The report additionally discloses the forecast incorporating the counter-cyclical factor to measure the impact of policy adjustment factors on the model fixing forecast.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USDCNY

  Core forecast instrument

  Strengths

  The report provides a specific fixing forecast, the spread relative to the previous value, and the adjustment incorporating the counter-cyclical factor.

  Weaknesses

  The usable information in the text is limited, and specific chart data has not been fully extracted, making it difficult to reconstruct all model contributions.

  Comparison

  The main model forecast of 6.8007 is below the previous forecast of 6.8054; the counter-cyclical-factor forecast of 6.8012 is slightly above the main model forecast.

  Risks

  Model errors, policy adjustments, event shocks, and fluctuations in the US dollar index could cause the actual fixing to deviate from the forecast.

Key data

• Main model forecast6.8007Projection: 6.8007.
• Previous forecast6.8054The current main model forecast is 47 points below the previous forecast.
• Relative to the previous official spot close51 points higherThe report states that the current model forecast is 51 points above the previous official spot close.
• Model forecast including the counter-cyclical factor6.801242 points below the previous fixing.
• Research institutionNomura Singapore Ltd. (NSL)The report was produced by Nomura Singapore Ltd.

Impact & implications

The forecast is relevant to investors monitoring the RMB fixing, short-term USD/CNY volatility, and Asian FX trading. The main model and counter-cyclical-factor results are close, indicating that the model's estimate for the day's fixing is concentrated around 6.8007 to 6.8012; subsequent Politburo meetings, the APEC Shenzhen meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and interactions between the leaders of China and the United States could affect RMB expectations and risk appetite.

Risks

• Forecasts and simulations do not guarantee future performance.
• USDCNY may be affected by policy signals, risk appetite, the US dollar trend, and changes in liquidity.
• The report states that the information comes from sources believed to be reliable, but Nomura has not independently verified all third-party information.
• The fixing forecast incorporating the counter-cyclical factor is subject to uncertainty regarding policy interpretation and practical use.

What to watch

• China's Politburo economic work conference in late July 2026.
• China's National Day Golden Week from October 1 to 7, 2026.
• The APEC Shenzhen meeting in November 2026.
• The Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December 2026.
• The Politburo meeting and related arrangements involving the leaders of China and the United States at the end of 2026.