U.S. consumers' air travel intentions remain resilient, with only a slight YoY cooling

Overview

Based on the 12th round of the UBS Evidence Lab travel intention survey, this report assesses U.S. consumers' leisure and business travel demand over the next 12 months from the perspective of U.S. airlines. The survey was conducted from March to early April 2026 and covered 6,877 consumers globally, including 1,754 respondents in the U.S. The conclusion is that, despite pressure from higher fuel prices and geopolitical concerns, U.S. consumers' travel intentions have only moderated modestly YoY and remain above the level seen two years ago.

Core views

The core view is that U.S. air travel demand remains broadly resilient. Leisure travel intention edged down from 83.1% in March 2025 to 82.8% in March 2026; business travel intention fell from 35.0% to 32.6%, but remains above 31.7% in 2024. On spending intent, roughly 48% of respondents still plan to increase leisure travel spending, though the size of the increase has slowed, with more respondents clustered in the 'increase by no more than 10%' range. Among large airlines, the 'more or about the same' flying intention for DAL, UAL, AAL, and LUV is broadly stable, indicating no obvious deterioration in demand.

Analysis framework

The report uses consumer survey data to compare travel intentions, travel spending, ticket-purchasing decision factors, destination-region preferences, flying intentions for major U.S. airlines, and usage of AI travel-booking tools on a cross-sectional and YoY basis, while combining airline demand commentary, fuel prices, fare increases, and brand/premiumization factors to assess industry demand resilience.

Methodology notes

• 消费者调查UBS Evidence Lab Travel Consumer Survey

  12th round of the U.S.-and-Europe travel consumer survey

  UBS Evidence Lab conducted an online survey from March 3 to April 6, 2026, with a global sample of 6,877 respondents and a U.S. sample of 1,754 respondents, to measure travel intentions and spending plans over the next 12 months.

• Valuation methodsP/E multiple analysis

  price-to-earnings multiple valuation

  The report indicates that target prices for airlines such as AAL, ALK, DAL, LUV, and UAL are typically based on P/E multiples, while also comparing current trading levels, historical averages, and peer valuations.

• Valuation methodsEV/EBITDAR analysis

  enterprise value/EBITDAR valuation

  Airline sector valuation can also use EV/EBITDAR analysis to reflect carriers' lease structures, capital expenditure needs, and earnings volatility.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC (AAL.US)

  One of the companies covered by the report; the survey results are used to assess demand conditions for major U.S. airlines.

  Strengths

  AAL's future 12-month 'more or about the same' flying intention is 58%, basically flat YoY; higher importance of airline brand may help large airlines.

  Weaknesses

  The report identifies AAL-specific risks including execution and the ability to regain corporate customer share.

  Comparison

  AAL's 58% is close to DAL's 57% and UAL's 59%, and above LUV's 48%; LUV improved YoY but remains below 2024 levels.

  Risks

  Macroeconomic slowdown, higher fuel prices, weaker-than-expected corporate customer recovery, competitive pressure, and cost volatility.

• Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL)

  Peer comparison among major U.S. airlines.

  Strengths

  The 'more or about the same' flying intention is 57%, up 100 bps YoY; resilient transatlantic travel demand may benefit DAL.

  Weaknesses

  Affected by a macro slowdown and shifts in premium consumer preferences.

  Comparison

  DAL's metric is slightly below AAL and UAL, but the YoY direction is better.

  Risks

  Macroeconomic slowdown, slower consumer willingness to trade up to premium products, and fuel cost volatility.

• United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL)

  Peer comparison among major U.S. airlines.

  Strengths

  The 'more or about the same' flying intention is 59%, the highest among the listed large airlines; resilient transatlantic demand may benefit UAL.

  Weaknesses

  Down 100 bps YoY.

  Comparison

  UAL's absolute level is higher than AAL, DAL, and LUV, but it eased slightly YoY.

  Risks

  Macroeconomic slowdown, softer willingness to trade up, and rising fuel prices.

• Southwest Airlines Co (LUV)

  Peer comparison among U.S. airlines.

  Strengths

  The 'more or about the same' flying intention improved 200 bps YoY to 48%.

  Weaknesses

  Still below 53% in March 2024, and the report discloses upside risk to its Sell view.

  Comparison

  LUV's metric is below AAL, DAL, and UAL.

  Risks

  Industry capacity changes, customer acceptance of new products, execution, and changes in fuel prices.

Key data

• U.S. sample size1,754 peopleThe global sample was 6,877 respondents, and the survey was conducted from March 3 to April 6, 2026.
• Leisure travel intention82.8%U.S. respondents' intention to travel for leisure over the next 12 months in March 2026, down from 83.1% in March 2025.
• Business travel intention32.6%Below 35.0% in March 2025, but above 31.7% in March 2024.
• Plan to increase leisure travel spending48%Slightly below 49% in March 2025.
• Reduce or not spend on leisure travel23%Below 24% in the prior year.
• Price as a key factor for leisure ticket purchases77%Price remains the most important consideration when buying leisure air tickets.
• Destination as a leisure ticket factor55%An important factor after price.
• Airline brand as a leisure ticket factor49%Up roughly 600 bps from three years ago, benefiting large airlines with strong loyalty programs and premium products.
• Intention to travel to Europe for leisure36%Down 600 bps YoY, but up 350 bps versus 2024 and above pre-pandemic levels.
• AAL 'more or about the same' flying intention58%Basically flat YoY.
• DAL 'more or about the same' flying intention57%Up 100 bps from March 2025.
• UAL 'more or about the same' flying intention59%Down 100 bps from March 2025.
• LUV 'more or about the same' flying intention48%Up 200 bps YoY, but still below 53% in March 2024.
• Use AI assistants to book travelabout 12%About 12% of U.S. respondents said they use AI assistants for travel booking.
• Fairly trust AI travel tools44%Another 17% said they trust them very much, while 31% do not trust them or do not trust them much.

Impact & implications

For U.S. airline stocks, the survey supports the view that demand remains resilient, especially for leisure travel and transatlantic travel intentions, which remain at high levels. Large airlines may benefit from stronger preferences for brands, loyalty programs, and premium cabins; however, price is still the most important booking factor, suggesting that fare increases remain constrained by consumer sensitivity. For AAL, stable flying intentions are a positive, but company-specific risks still include execution, regaining corporate share, a macro slowdown, and higher fuel prices.

Risks

• Fuel price volatility could compress airline margins and affect travel intentions.
• A macroeconomic slowdown could weaken leisure and business travel spending.
• Geopolitical concerns could affect international travel demand.
• High labor costs and large capital expenditures could create volatility in earnings and cash flow.
• Competition, and low-cost models such as LCCs and ULCCs, may continue to pressure profitability.
• AAL-specific risks include execution shortfalls and insufficient recovery in corporate share.

What to watch

• Whether leisure travel intention stays above 80% over the next 12 months.
• Whether business travel intention can recover from 32.6%, especially corporate demand.
• Changes in fuel prices and the pass-through to fares, margins, and consumer demand.
• Actual load factors for AAL, DAL, UAL, and LUV, and demand elasticity after fare increases.
• Changes in intentions to travel to international and regional destinations such as Europe and the Caribbean.
• Whether brand, cabin class, and loyalty programs continue to gain weight in booking decisions.
• Usage of AI assistants in travel search and booking, and changes in consumer trust.