J.P. Morgan reiterates Marvell Overweight, saying Microsoft and Amazon AI XPU ASIC partnerships remain solid

Overview

This is a J.P. Morgan company research report on Marvell Technology Inc, with the core purpose of addressing market rumors that Marvell may be losing share in Microsoft and Amazon custom AI XPU ASIC projects. Based on recent primary research, Marvell's recent earnings call, and information from the June Custom AI Analyst Day, the report concludes that Marvell's multi-generation partnerships with the two cloud customers remain intact.

Core views

The core view is that Marvell's position in Microsoft Maia- and Amazon AWS Trainium-related AI XPU ASIC projects remains solid, and there has been no project-share loss in either current or next-generation programs. The report believes the Microsoft Maia 3nm project is still on schedule to begin ramping in the second half of CY26 and scale meaningfully in CY27, while the next-generation 2nm/3nm chiplet architecture project has already entered early design; Amazon Trainium 3 has completed design, evaluation, and certification and secured CY26 purchase orders, and the Trainium 4 2nm project has also started early design.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses a combination of primary industry research, publicly stated management comments, earnings call information, and Analyst Day information to refute market rumors, and cross-validates current project progress against multi-generation chip roadmaps, the depth of customer partnerships, and ASIC design capabilities.

Methodology notes

• Company fundamental researchPrimary research and project progress cross-check

  Cross-check market rumors against supply chain and customer project progress

  The report combines recent primary research, Marvell management commentary, earnings call disclosures, and Custom AI Analyst Day content to determine whether Microsoft- and Amazon-related AI XPU ASIC projects are still advancing along their generational roadmaps.

• Competitive positioning analysisCustom ASIC design capability assessment

  Assess the moat through design nodes, project count, IP mix, and depth of customer collaboration

  The report highlights Marvell's more than 30 years of ASIC experience, more than 60 design wins across 12nm/5nm/3nm/2nm, and its ability to provide custom silicon solutions for compute, networking, and storage.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL.US)

  Core coverage name; the report reiterates an Overweight rating

  Strengths

  Leading custom ASIC capabilities, deep customer relationships, progress in Microsoft Maia and Amazon Trainium multi-generation projects, and a compute/networking/storage IP portfolio.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide this round's valuation model, target price, or financial forecast details; the investment view relies heavily on primary research and project-progress validation.

  Comparison

  The report says Broadcom is the number-one market share company in leading-node ASICs, while Marvell is the number-two market share company, and compares the two as custom ASIC leaders.

  Risks

  Market rumors, changes in customer project share, AI ASIC ramp delays, competitors vying for hyperscaler projects, and advanced-node design complexity.

• Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US)

  One of Marvell's main custom AI XPU ASIC customers

  Strengths

  The Maia project is described in the report as a multi-generation partnership, with both the 3nm project and the next-generation 2nm/3nm chiplet project making progress.

  Weaknesses

  Microsoft's specific purchase amount and final volume scale were not disclosed in the input content.

  Comparison

  One of Marvell's two main AI XPU customers alongside Amazon.

  Risks

  Project timelines, internal chip strategy, or supplier mix adjustments could affect Marvell's revenue cadence.

• Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.US)

  One of Marvell's main custom AI XPU ASIC customers, involving AWS Trainium projects

  Strengths

  Trainium 3 is said to have completed design, evaluation, and certification, and to have secured full-year CY26 purchase orders; Trainium 4 has begun early design.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not disclose purchase order size or long-term margin assumptions.

  Comparison

  Together with Microsoft, it supports Marvell's multi-generation custom AI business growth story.

  Risks

  AWS's in-house chip roadmap, supply chain execution, and changes among competing suppliers could affect project contribution.

Key data

• RatingOverweightJ.P. Morgan reiterates its OW rating on MRVL in the report.
• Current price$98.91The report discloses the price as of 05 Dec 25.
• Microsoft Maia 3nm project timelineInitial ramp in 2H26, significant volume growth in CY27The report believes the project is still progressing on schedule.
• Next-generation Microsoft Maia project2nm/3nm chiplet, 3DSOIC architecture, targeting CY27/CY28 rampThe report says Marvell has won the next-generation project and has already started early design.
• Amazon Trainium 3 projectCY26 ramp, with full-year CY26 purchase orders securedThe report says this was confirmed by Marvell's recent earnings call.
• AI custom ASIC business growth guidanceCY26 growth outlook raised by 20%+The report says Trainium 3 is contributing to management's raised growth outlook.
• ASIC experience and design winsMore than 30 years of ASIC experience, over 60 design wins across 12nm/5nm/3nm/2nmThe report uses this as evidence of Marvell's differentiated capabilities.

Impact & implications

If the report's view is correct, concerns that Marvell is losing share in Microsoft and Amazon AI ASIC projects could be reduced, and investor confidence in the visibility of its CY26-CY28 custom AI business growth and the continuation of multi-generation projects should improve.

Risks

• Market rumors about customer project-share loss may continue to weigh on short-term sentiment.
• If Microsoft Maia or Amazon Trainium experiences design, certification, or ramp delays, Marvell's custom AI business growth realization could be affected.
• Advanced-node ASIC projects are highly complex, involving more than 100B-transistor-level design, packaging, and ecosystem collaboration risks.
• Customers may adjust supplier mix or internal chip strategy, leading to future changes in project share.
• The report discloses potential conflicts of interest involving J.P. Morgan and Marvell, including market-making, investment banking, ownership, and client relationships, so investors should make their own independent assessment.

What to watch

• Whether the Microsoft Maia 3nm project starts its initial ramp as planned in 2H26.
• Whether Marvell's custom AI business in CY27 delivers the significant step-up in year-over-year growth described by management.
• The execution of Amazon Trainium 3 purchase orders and revenue recognition pace in CY26.
• Design progress on next-generation 2nm/3nm projects such as Microsoft Maia Gen 3 and Amazon Trainium 4.
• Whether Marvell's subsequent earnings calls, Custom AI Analyst Day, and customer public comments continue to validate the multi-generation partnership.