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China NEV new orders diverge in Week 3 of June: BYD surges, HIMA and NIO retreat

Institution
Deutsche Bank
Date
2026-06-23
Authors
Bin Wang, Wei Huang
Company
-
Ticker
-
Industry
China automotive and automotive technology; new energy vehicles
Rating
-
NeutralLow confidenceThe report tracks weekly new order data for major Chinese NEV automakers and discloses order changes by brand, but it does not provide a single-company investment rating, target price, or explicit buy/sell recommendation.
AuthorsBin Wang, Wei Huang
Asset classesEquity
Business segmentsPassenger vehicles、New energy vehicles、Automakers
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesDeutsche Bank（Other）

AI summary card

China NEV new orders diverge in Week 3 of June: BYD surges, HIMA and NIO retreat

In this weekly note, Deutsche Bank tracks new orders for major Chinese NEV automakers. In Week 3 of June, BYD posted 106.8k new orders, up 134% week on week and 34% year on year. Xiaomi, Leap Motor, Li Auto, and XPeng rose week on week, while HIMA, NIO, Geely, and Tesla declined.

No stock ratings or target prices; the report is an industry data tracker.
New energy vehiclesChina autosWeekly ordersDemand leading indicatorAutomaker comparison
  • BYD recorded 106.8k new orders in Week 3 of June, up 134% from 45.7k in the prior week and 34% year on year, the highest absolute order volume among the sample automakers.
  • Xiaomi new orders were 7.2k, up 44% week on week and 80% year on year; NIO grew 195% year on year, but fell 26% week on week.
  • HIMA (mainly AITO) posted 11.7k new orders, down 36% week on week and up 30% year on year; Tesla new orders were 12.6k, down 4% week on week and up 5% year on year.
  • The report is positioned as a weekly order data album, mainly used to observe China NEV demand leading indicators, and does not provide stock ratings, target prices, or valuation conclusions.

Report interpretation

Overview

This report is Deutsche Bank's weekly new order tracker for China NEVs, covering changes in new order flows for key Chinese NEV automakers. The report date is June 23, 2026, and the core data window is Week 3 of June 2026 (June 15 to 21), compared with the prior week and the same period in 2025.

Core views

Based on the disclosed data, automaker order performance in Week 3 of June diverged meaningfully. BYD led both in order volume and week-on-week growth; Xiaomi, Leap Motor, Li Auto, and XPeng improved week on week; Geely, HIMA, NIO, and Tesla weakened week on week. On a year-on-year basis, NIO, Xiaomi, BYD, HIMA, and Tesla remained in growth, while Li Auto declined.

Analysis framework

The report uses weekly new orders as a leading indicator of NEV demand, compares key automakers horizontally, and identifies short-term demand momentum through week-on-week and year-on-year changes. The core table lists each automaker's new orders in Week 3 of June 2026, Week 2 of June 2026, and the same period in 2025.

Methodology notes

  • Industry data trackingWeekly new order monitoring

    Use weekly new orders to measure marginal changes in NEV demand

    New orders typically lead delivery and revenue data, and can be used to observe brand demand, channel momentum, and short-term competitive shifts.

  • Comparative analysisWeek-on-week and year-on-year comparison

    Compare orders this week, last week, and the same week last year

    Week-on-week measures short-term momentum changes, while year-on-year reduces seasonal effects and shows annual growth trends.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • 1211 HK BYD
    Core tracked automaker
    Strengths
    106.8k orders in Week 3 of June, the highest in the sample; +134% week on week, +34% year on year.
    Weaknesses
    The report does not disclose the specific model or channel source behind the order growth.
    Comparison
    Absolute order scale is clearly higher than the other sample automakers.
    Risks
    Future order sustainability under a high base, price competition, and delivery conversion rates need to be monitored.
  • 0175 HK Geely
    Core tracked automaker, including Zeekr and Galaxy
    Strengths
    Weekly orders of 24.2k, placing it near the top of the sample in absolute terms.
    Weaknesses
    Down 10% week on week, and year-on-year data are not disclosed in the table.
    Comparison
    Order scale is below BYD but above most new-energy upstarts.
    Risks
    Short-term weakness and competitive pressure across NEV sub-brands.
  • 9927 HK HIMA
    Core tracked automaker, mainly AITO
    Strengths
    Year-on-year growth of 30%.
    Weaknesses
    Weekly orders of 11.7k, down 36% week on week.
    Comparison
    The week-on-week decline is among the largest in the sample.
    Risks
    Short-term demand volatility and model cycle changes.
  • 9863 HK Leap Motor
    Core tracked automaker
    Strengths
    Weekly orders of 14.1k, up 22% week on week.
    Weaknesses
    Year-on-year data are not disclosed in the table, making it difficult to judge the annual trend.
    Comparison
    Week-on-week performance is stronger than Tesla, NIO, HIMA, and Geely.
    Risks
    Whether order improvement can translate into stable deliveries and profit improvement still needs to be observed.
  • TSLA US Tesla
    Core tracked automaker
    Strengths
    Weekly orders of 12.6k, up 5% year on year.
    Weaknesses
    Down 4% week on week, with relatively modest growth.
    Comparison
    Order scale is below BYD, Geely, NIO, and Leap Motor.
    Risks
    Intensifying competition in China, price adjustments, and product cycle pressure.
  • 9866 HK NIO
    Core tracked automaker
    Strengths
    Year-on-year growth of 195%, indicating a significant improvement in orders on a low base last year.
    Weaknesses
    Weekly orders of 14.5k, down 26% week on week.
    Comparison
    The year-on-year growth rate is the highest among the sample with disclosed year-on-year data.
    Risks
    The week-on-week pullback indicates that short-term order momentum remains unstable.
  • 2015 HK Li Auto
    Core tracked automaker
    Strengths
    Weekly orders of 5.9k, up 8% week on week.
    Weaknesses
    Down 34% year on year, with relatively low absolute order volume in the sample.
    Comparison
    Year-on-year performance is weaker than BYD, HIMA, Tesla, NIO, Xiaomi, and XPeng.
    Risks
    The pace of demand recovery, model competition, and product cadence need continued tracking.
  • 1810 HK Xiaomi
    Core tracked automaker
    Strengths
    Weekly orders of 7.2k, up 44% week on week and 80% year on year.
    Weaknesses
    Absolute order scale is still below most mature automaker samples.
    Comparison
    The week-on-week growth rate is second only to BYD, and year-on-year growth is also at a relatively high level.
    Risks
    Capacity ramp-up, delivery execution, and competitive pressure from new entrants.
  • 9868 HK XPeng
    Core tracked automaker
    Strengths
    Weekly orders of 9.0k, up 8% week on week and 2% year on year.
    Weaknesses
    Year-on-year growth is relatively weak.
    Comparison
    Week-on-week performance is the same as Li Auto, but year-on-year performance is better than Li Auto and weaker than most growth-oriented samples.
    Risks
    Order growth momentum is relatively moderate, and the impact of new models and price competition needs to be watched.

Key data

  • BYD weekly new orders106.8kWeek 3 of June 2026; +134% week on week, +34% year on year.
  • Geely (Zeekr and Galaxy) weekly new orders24.2kWeek on week -10%; year-on-year data not disclosed in the table.
  • HIMA (mainly AITO) weekly new orders11.7kWeek on week -36%, year on year +30%.
  • Leap Motor weekly new orders14.1kWeek on week +22%; year-on-year data not disclosed in the table.
  • Tesla weekly new orders12.6kWeek on week -4%, year on year +5%.
  • NIO weekly new orders14.5kWeek on week -26%, year on year +195%.
  • Li Auto weekly new orders5.9kWeek on week +8%, year on year -34%.
  • Xiaomi weekly new orders7.2kWeek on week +44%, year on year +80%.
  • XPeng weekly new orders9.0kWeek on week +8%, year on year +2%.

Impact & implications

Weekly order data suggests that China NEV demand still has structural bright spots, but momentum differs significantly across brands. BYD's strong order performance may reinforce its scale advantage; the high year-on-year growth at Xiaomi and NIO suggests new models or brand cycles may be adding incremental demand; the week-on-week pullbacks at HIMA and NIO indicate that short-term order volatility still needs continued monitoring.

Risks

  • Weekly order data are highly volatile, and single-week performance should not be directly extrapolated into a long-term trend.
  • The report discloses new orders rather than deliveries, revenue, or profit, and there may be cancellations, delays, or structural changes between orders and final deliveries.
  • Some automakers lack year-on-year data, which makes horizontal comparisons incomplete.
  • The NEV industry still faces risks such as price competition, model cycles, subsidy or regulatory changes, supply-chain issues, and the macro consumption environment.

What to watch

  • Whether BYD's high-order week is sustainable and can be converted into stable deliveries.
  • Whether the week-on-week pullbacks at NIO and HIMA are short-term fluctuations or signals of model-cycle or channel-demand changes.
  • Whether Xiaomi's strong order growth can be matched by capacity ramp-up and delivery execution.
  • The recovery in orders for Geely's Zeekr and Galaxy sub-brands after the week-on-week decline.
  • Tesla China's relative performance amid price competition and product-cycle pressure.
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