Large active mutual funds further rotate from Software to Semiconductors
AI summary card
Large active mutual funds further rotate from Software to Semiconductors
After tracking 509 large active mutual funds, Goldman Sachs noted that in Q1 funds continued to add Semiconductors and trim Software, while only 29% outperformed the benchmark, below the 37% historical average.
- Excluding mega-caps, large mutual funds' average overweight to Semiconductors rose by 25 bps to +49 bps, while their underweight to Software widened by 12 bps to -36 bps.
- Large mutual funds were underweight the Magnificent 7 by 723 bps overall, widening from a -710 bps underweight in the prior quarter, and on a net share basis they reduced every Mag 7 stock, with GOOGL seeing the largest cut.
- YTD only 29% of large mutual funds outperformed the benchmark, below the 37% historical average; fund cash as a share of assets rose to 1.4%, but remains at historically low levels.
- U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs have seen USD 1660 hundred million in net inflows YTD, including USD 2060 hundred million into passive ETFs, USD 950 hundred million into active ETFs, and USD -1460 hundred million out of active mutual funds.
- At the sector level, funds are most overweight Industrials and Financials at +197 bps and +190 bps, respectively; Information Technology is the most underweight sector at -478 bps.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report analyzes quarter-end holdings as of Q1 2026 for 509 large active mutual funds, representing USD 3.9 trillion in equity assets under management. The core conclusion is that, under the AI theme, funds continued shifting allocations from Software toward Semiconductors and AI data center-related stocks, while the share of active funds outperforming the benchmark remained low and exposure to the Magnificent 7 stayed meaningfully underweight.
Core views
Goldman Sachs believes the capital flow tilt toward Semiconductors relative to Software has widened further, driven mainly by upward revisions to capex expectations for hyperscale cloud providers and by market concern that AI could disrupt software business models. At the same time, mutual funds remain relatively overweight Industrials, Financials, Health Care, and Energy, while staying underweight Information Technology and Communication Services. In basket terms, the most overweight basket GSTHMFOW is down 3% YTD, lagging the +6% return of the equal-weight S&P 500 and the +14% return of the most underweight basket GSTHMFUW.
Analysis framework
The report is based on quarter-end holdings of large active mutual funds, comparing each fund's relative overweight or underweight versus its benchmark across sectors, themes, and individual stocks, and using net share changes to identify true buying and selling. The analysis covers fund performance, flows, cash levels, AI, the Magnificent 7, IPOs, sector positioning, and stock positioning, and updates the mutual fund overweight basket GSTHMFOW and underweight basket GSTHMFUW.
Methodology notes
Quarter-end mutual fund holdings analysis
Uses quarter-end equity holdings from 509 large active mutual funds to measure each fund's relative overweight, underweight, additions, and reductions versus benchmark.
Semiconductor versus software tilt excluding mega-caps
To avoid conclusions being dominated by mega-caps such as AVGO, NVDA, and MSFT, the report excludes related mega-cap stocks in parts of the AI theme analysis to observe the funds' true sector preference between Semiconductors and Software.
Mutual fund overweight and underweight baskets
Goldman Sachs combines the holdings tilts of large core, growth, and value funds into a 50-stock equal-weight overweight basket, GSTHMFOW, and a 50-stock equal-weight underweight basket, GSTHMFUW; the baskets are not sector-neutral relative to Russell 1000.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- SemiconductorsOverweight direction
- Strengths
- Benefiting from AI infrastructure and upward revisions to hyperscale cloud capex expectations, with the overweight rising to +49 bps.
- Weaknesses
- Some Semiconductor and AI data center stocks have already rallied sharply, so fund holdings may still struggle to keep up with rising benchmark weights.
- Comparison
- Relative to Software, the tilt toward Semiconductors is at its widest level since at least 2012.
- Risks
- If AI capex expectations are revised down or Semiconductor valuations compress, the overweight trade could come under pressure.
- Software ex-MSFTUnderweight direction
- Strengths
- Some Software names remain overweighted by funds, and there may be upside if concerns about AI disruption ease.
- Weaknesses
- The underweight to Software widened to -36 bps, with exposure at its lowest level since at least 2012.
- Comparison
- Clearly out of favor relative to Semiconductors, reflecting a market preference for AI hardware and infrastructure.
- Risks
- Concerns about AI disrupting software business models and growth expectations may continue to weigh on sector allocations.
- Magnificent 7Significant underweight
- Strengths
- Some names such as AAPL, NVDA, GOOGL, and AMZN have outperformed YTD, helping index performance.
- Weaknesses
- Large mutual funds are underweight every Mag 7 name, with an overall underweight of 723 bps, and reduced every stock on a net-share basis.
- Comparison
- The underweight widened further from -710 bps in Q4 2025.
- Risks
- If the Mag 7 continues to lead, active fund performance relative to benchmarks may remain under pressure.
- IndustrialsMost overweight sector
- Strengths
- Average fund overweight of +197 bps, near a 10-year high and the largest increase in Q1.
- Weaknesses
- The elevated position may limit room for further addition.
- Comparison
- A sharp contrast versus the underweight in Information Technology.
- Risks
- If expectations tied to the economy or defense/aviation soften, the heavily weighted sector could pull back.
- FinancialsHigh overweight but being sold
- Strengths
- Average fund overweight of +190 bps, still one of the most favored sectors.
- Weaknesses
- Financial stocks accounted for 9 of the 20 most heavily sold names, indicating weakening marginal flows.
- Comparison
- High allocation levels, but many individual names are seeing sell signals.
- Risks
- Interest rates, the credit cycle, or regulatory changes could affect sector performance.
- GSTHMFOWMost overweight mutual fund basket
- Strengths
- Represents the 50 Russell 1000 stocks most broadly favored by large core, growth, and value funds.
- Weaknesses
- YTD performance is -3%, lagging the +6% return of the equal-weight S&P 500 and the +14% return of GSTHMFUW.
- Comparison
- 16 new constituents were added this quarter.
- Risks
- If popular holdings continue to underperform, it could weaken active fund results and create rebalancing pressure.
- GSTHMFUWMost underweight mutual fund basket
- Strengths
- Up 14% YTD, significantly outperforming GSTHMFOW and the equal-weight S&P 500.
- Weaknesses
- Represents stocks that funds are underweight or dislike; volatility may be higher if capital continues to avoid them.
- Comparison
- 6 new constituents were added this quarter, with SNDK and GLW joining the basket.
- Risks
- Continued gains in underweight names would further increase active funds' relative pressure versus benchmarks.
Key data
- Sample size509 large active mutual funds, representing USD 3.9 trillion in equity assetsUsed to analyze quarter-end fund holdings and allocation changes.
- Outperformance rate29%The share of large mutual funds outperforming the benchmark YTD, below the 37% historical average.
- Cash ratio1.4%Mutual fund cash as a share of assets as of the end of March, up from the start of the year but still below historical levels.
- U.S. equity fund net inflowsUSD 1660 hundred millionNet inflows into U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs YTD.
- Active ETF net inflowsUSD 950 hundred millionActive ETFs were a notable exception within active products and continued to see strong inflows.
- Active mutual fund net outflowsUSD -1460 hundred millionActive mutual funds continued to face outflow pressure.
- Semiconductor overweight change+25 bps to +49 bpsAfter excluding mega-caps, large mutual funds increased their Semiconductor overweight in Q1.
- Software underweight change-12 bps to -36 bpsAfter excluding MSFT, the Software underweight widened to the lowest exposure level since at least 2012.
- Magnificent 7 underweight-723 bpsThe overall underweight of large mutual funds to the Mag 7 in Q1 2026, compared with -710 bps in the prior quarter.
- Most overweight sectorsIndustrials +197 bps, Financials +190 bpsThe highest relative overweight across mutual fund sector allocations.
- Most underweight sectorInformation Technology -478 bpsMutual funds remain meaningfully underweight the Information Technology sector.
- Top net buying stocksWAT, VSNT, ANETThe largest net additions in Q1 2026 based on changes in mutual fund shares held.
- Top net selling stocksGOOGL, JPM, MSFTThe largest net reductions in Q1 2026 based on changes in mutual fund shares held.
Impact & implications
The report shows that active mutual funds are making a clearer bet on semiconductors and data center beneficiaries within the AI infrastructure chain, while reducing exposure to software. For investors, this means the crowding and persistence of the Semiconductors-versus-Software trend warrant close monitoring; however, with funds still broadly underperforming benchmarks, cash still low, and the Magnificent 7 significantly underweight, active funds may continue to face relative performance pressure if mega-cap technology stocks keep driving index returns.
Risks
- The Semiconductor and AI data center trade may already be crowded, and downside risk is elevated if earnings or capex expectations fall short.
- Large active mutual funds are significantly underweight the Mag 7; if mega-cap technology stocks keep leading, relative performance could continue to lag.
- Software allocations may remain subdued as concerns persist about AI substitution and business-model disruption.
- Large IPOs could, if quickly added to indices, create mechanical selling pressure for existing passive holdings, even though initial weights are expected to be small.
- Ongoing outflows from active mutual funds, alongside inflows into passive ETFs and active ETFs, may continue to reshape the marginal flow structure of the market.
What to watch
- Whether the allocation gap between Semiconductors and Software continues to widen, especially after excluding NVDA, AVGO, and MSFT to isolate the true sector tilt.
- The magnitude of large mutual funds' underweight to the Mag 7 and changes in net holdings, especially GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, and AMZN.
- Whether active ETF inflows can continue to offset active mutual fund outflows.
- Whether sectors near 10-year high weights such as Industrials, Health Care, and Energy begin to see profit-taking.
- The free-float percentages of potential large IPOs, the rules for rapid index inclusion, and the scale of passive reallocation.
- Relative performance of GSTHMFOW versus GSTHMFUW after rebalancing.