Solar Supply Chain Prices Stabilize; Polysilicon Prices Halt Decline
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Solar Supply Chain Prices Stabilize; Polysilicon Prices Halt Decline
In Week 22 of 2026, solar product prices remained generally stable. Upstream polysilicon prices stopped declining and rebounded slightly to RMB 34.5–35/kg, cell prices softened marginally, while module and overseas prices held steady.
- Average polysilicon prices stabilized at RMB 34.5–35/kg, halting their previous decline
- Wafer prices have remained steady for over a month, holding at RMB 0.9–1.2/piece
- Cell prices dipped slightly week-over-week by 0–1.5%, now at RMB 0.325–0.335/W
- Domestic TOPCon module prices were flat: RMB 0.76/W for distributed projects and RMB 0.72/W for utility-scale projects
- EVA resin prices plunged 18.5% week-over-week, while POE resin prices remained stable
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is Morgan Stanley’s solar product price tracker for Week 22 of 2026. The key finding is that prices across the solar supply chain remained broadly stable during the week. Upstream polysilicon prices ended their downward trend and stabilized, midstream cell prices showed minor softening, and downstream module and auxiliary material prices mostly held unchanged. Through high-frequency data tracking, the report reflects the current price floor characteristics shaped by supply-demand dynamics in the photovoltaic market.
Core views
Upstream segment: Polysilicon prices stabilized after halting their decline. This week, average polysilicon prices stopped falling and stabilized at RMB 34.5–35/kg. Wafer prices have remained steady for over a month, staying within the range of RMB 0.9–1.2/piece. Midstream segment: Cell prices softened slightly. Cell prices declined marginally week-over-week by 0–1.5%, now trading at RMB 0.325–0.335/W. Downstream segment: Module prices remained stable both domestically and overseas. Domestic TOPCon module prices held steady, with distributed project pricing at RMB 0.76/W and utility-scale project pricing at RMB 0.72/W. Overseas module prices also remained unchanged: China-made TOPCon modules for the EU market stayed at USD 0.123/W, and U.S.-assembled TOPCon modules held at USD 0.30/W. Auxiliary materials segment: EVA resin prices dropped sharply. While solar encapsulant film prices remained generally stable, EVA resin—a key raw material—experienced significant volatility, plunging 18.5% week-over-week. In contrast, POE resin prices remained flat.
Analysis framework
The institution employed a high-frequency weekly data tracking methodology to monitor prices across the entire solar supply chain—from polysilicon, wafers, and cells to modules and auxiliary materials. By comparing week-over-week (WoW), month-over-month (MoM), and year-over-year (YoY) data, the analysis identifies marginal shifts in pricing trends. This approach helps investors promptly capture short-term fluctuations in industry sentiment and cost transmission effects, particularly focusing on how sharp swings in upstream raw material prices (e.g., EVA resin) may potentially benefit or pressure midstream manufacturing margins.
Methodology notes
Price Tracking Across Supply Chain Segments
By breaking down the solar supply chain into segments—polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules, and auxiliary materials—and tracking price movements in each, this method helps investors understand how profits are redistributed across the value chain. For example, when upstream polysilicon stabilizes while EVA resin prices plunge, it may signal potential margin improvement opportunities for downstream module manufacturers.
Key data
- Average Polysilicon PriceRMB 34.5–35/kgDecline halted; prices stabilized
- Wafer PriceRMB 0.9–1.2/pieceStable for over one month
- Cell PriceRMB 0.325–0.335/WDown 0–1.5% WoW
- Domestic TOPCon Module Price (Distributed)RMB 0.76/WFlat
- Domestic TOPCon Module Price (Utility-Scale)RMB 0.72/WFlat
- EVA Resin PriceDown 18.5% WoWSharp drop
- EU TOPCon Module Price (China-Made)USD 0.123/WUnchanged
Impact & implications
The report indicates that solar supply chain prices have entered a relatively stable bottoming range. The stabilization of upstream polysilicon prices helps alleviate market concerns about continued price collapse. The sharp decline in EVA resin prices could reduce non-silicon costs for modules, potentially supporting module manufacturers’ gross margins. Overall, price stabilization suggests the industry is seeking a new equilibrium between supply and demand.