Swiss watch exports grew 11.2% year over year in June, indicating improved industry demand but continued weakness in Mainland China

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ monthly tracking and industry news roundup for the luxury watch segment of European branded consumer goods in June 2026. The key data point is Swiss watch exports, which grew 11.2% year over year in June to CHF 2.4bn, a marked improvement from +0.4% in May. The report assesses the industry through regional and price-band data and recent operating updates from major companies.

Core views

Goldman Sachs’ core view is that the demand backdrop for the watch industry is improving, but the recovery is uneven. Hong Kong, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and the UAE performed well, while recent operating updates from Richemont, Watches of Switzerland and Swatch support improving momentum in high-end and pre-owned watches. By contrast, Mainland China remains weak, falling 17% year over year in June and 9% in 2Q, although sequential improvement is evident on a one- to two-year stacked basis.

Analysis framework

The report uses monthly industry data tracking with cross-validation against company read-across: it first analyzes changes in total Swiss watch exports, regional exports and price bands, then combines this with Richemont, Watches of Switzerland, Swatch and Bezel data on pre-owned watch authentication to derive investment implications for high-end watches, offshore consumption, pre-owned watch authentication services and retail channels.

Methodology notes

• Industry data trackingSwiss watch exports monthly tracker

  Year-over-year change in Swiss watch exports

  Swiss watch export values, regional exports and price-band changes are used to measure global high-end watch demand trends.

• Read-acrossRead-across

  Deriving company implications from industry data and peer operating commentary

  The report links Swiss exports, travel retail, company performance and management commentary to assess the demand backdrop for related assets including Richemont, Watches of Switzerland and Swatch.

• Goldman Sachs internal frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples and composite factors

  The disclosure section explains that this framework uses standardized rankings of Goldman Sachs’ forecast metrics to compare stocks with the broader market and peers across growth, returns, valuation and composite characteristics.

• Goldman Sachs internal frameworkM&A Rank

  Scoring the probability of potential mergers and acquisitions

  The disclosure section explains that Goldman Sachs uses an M&A rank from 1 to 3 to assess the probability that a company becomes an acquisition target; companies with high or medium probability may have an M&A component incorporated into their target prices.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Swiss luxury watch sector

  Core industry under review

  Strengths

  Exports grew 11.2% year over year in June, with improvement across several Asian markets, the United States, the United Kingdom and the UAE; high-end and entry-level price bands maintained positive growth.

  Weaknesses

  Mainland China remained in decline, the CHF 500–3,000 mid-range price band lagged, and several major European markets outside the United Kingdom and France weakened.

  Comparison

  A marked improvement from +0.4% in May and better than the -5.6% year-over-year performance in June 2025.

  Risks

  Regional data volatility, tariff disruption, sustainability of offshore consumption and insufficient recovery in Mainland China demand.

• Richemont

  Read-through for high-end watch demand

  Strengths

  Specialist Watchmakers returned to growth, increasing 8% at constant currency, driven by Vacheron Constantin, Jaeger‑LeCoultre and A. Lange & Söhne; Watchfinder & Co. delivered double-digit growth.

  Weaknesses

  The jewellery business continued to significantly outperform watches; Asia Pacific was broadly stable overall, but Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau remained weak.

  Comparison

  The company’s operating commentary is consistent with industry data showing a recovery in offshore consumption in Hong Kong and the Chinese consumer cluster.

  Risks

  Continued weakness in China-related markets, watches underperforming jewellery and uneven regional recovery.

• Watches of Switzerland

  One of Goldman Sachs’ preferred company exposures

  Strengths

  The report believes it can benefit simultaneously from the high-end primary watch, pre-owned watch and jewellery markets; Rolex CPO and Roberto Coin are viewed as key growth drivers, while its positions in the United Kingdom and United States are strong.

  Weaknesses

  Recent reports indicated potential buyer interest but no formal offer; management provided no further comment. The business remains dependent on luxury watch demand and momentum from key brands.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure-play brand owners, WOSG offers multiple growth levers through retail distribution, CPO authentication and jewellery.

  Risks

  Uncertainty around potential transaction rumours, volatility in luxury demand, changes in supply and demand for waitlist products, and shifts in the US and UK consumer environments.

• Swatch

  Uncovered company but provides an industry read-through

  Strengths

  Watches & Jewellery grew 9.5% at constant currency in 1H26, with the United States up 27%, Japan up 20% and Greater China up 9%; Omega retail grew 20%, while several entry-level and mid-range brands achieved double-digit growth.

  Weaknesses

  The report explicitly identifies Swatch as not covered, so no formal Goldman Sachs rating conclusion can be drawn from it.

  Comparison

  Greater China shifted from a negative performance in fiscal 2025 to positive growth in 1H26, consistent with the industry stabilization view.

  Risks

  Sustainability of growth, the pace of recovery in Greater China, and whether share gains by entry-level and mid-range brands can continue.

Key data

• June Swiss watch exportsCHF 2.4bn, +11.2% YoYMay was +0.4% YoY; June 2025 was -5.6%.
• Mainland ChinaJune -17%, Q2 -9%, YTD -5%Still weak, although the report notes sequential improvement on a one- to two-year stacked basis.
• Hong KongJune +7%, Q2 +8%, YTD +3%Goldman Sachs believes this reflects improved travel and offshore shopping by Chinese consumers.
• United StatesJune +13%, CHF 349mnThe United States is the largest market, but remains affected by tariff-related shipment volatility and base effects.
• Other Asian marketsJapan +9%, Singapore +7%, South Korea +25%Major Asian markets performed strongly in June.
• Major European marketsUK +12%, Italy -21%, Germany -11%, Spain -35%, France +104%The United Kingdom improved; French data remained affected by re-exports.
• UAEJune +20%The report believes this may represent a rebound following the initial impact of the Middle East conflict.
• Price-band performanceCHF 200–500: +51% by volume, +54% by valueThis price band performed best; CHF 500–3,000 declined 1% by volume and 5% by value, lagging the market.
• Richemont Specialist Watchmakers+8% constant currencyA strong start to FY27, driven by Vacheron Constantin, Jaeger‑LeCoultre and A. Lange & Söhne.
• Bezel authentication data38% of submitted Rolex watches failed authenticationThe report believes this highlights the importance of authentication and trust in the pre-owned watch market.
• Watches of SwitzerlandBuy; last close 770pGoldman Sachs continues to view it as an attractive exposure to the high-end primary and pre-owned watch and jewellery markets.
• Swatch Watches & Jewellery1H26 +9.5% cFXUnited States +27%, Japan +20%, Greater China +9% cFX.

Impact & implications

For investment implications, the report supports the view that high-end watch demand is improving and that the pre-owned watch market is expanding. Potential beneficiaries include companies with high-end brands, pre-owned authentication capabilities, strong distribution positions in the United States and United Kingdom, waitlist products and jewellery expansion capabilities. However, weak Mainland China demand, tariff-driven volatility in US data, divergence across European markets and underperformance in the mid-range price band continue to limit confidence in the industry recovery.

Risks

• Mainland China exports and demand remain weak and could weigh on the global high-end watch recovery.
• US data are affected by tariff implementation, reductions and shipment timing, so short-term year-over-year volatility may exaggerate or obscure underlying demand.
• European markets are significantly divergent, with Italy, Germany and Spain all reporting negative growth in June.
• The CHF 500–3,000 mid-range price band lagged, indicating that the recovery is not synchronized across all price bands.
• Growth in the pre-owned watch market depends on authentication, services and trust systems; the high authentication failure rate for submitted Rolex watches highlights operational risks.
• If the improvement in offshore consumption and travel retail proves unsustainable, strong readings from markets such as Hong Kong could reverse.

What to watch

• Whether the year-over-year improvement in Swiss watch exports continues in subsequent months.
• Whether divergence among Mainland China, Hong Kong and Greater China narrows, particularly whether Mainland China demand can return to positive growth.
• The underlying trend in US demand after the effects of tariffs and base comparisons fade.
• Momentum at UK flagship stores and execution by Watches of Switzerland in FY27.
• Growth and authentication capabilities of CPO, Watchfinder & Co. and other pre-owned watch platforms.
• Whether the CHF 500–3,000 mid-range price band improves from its lagging position.
• Subsequent management commentary from Richemont, Swatch and other luxury peers regarding China and offshore consumption.