Goldman Sachs reviews the 1Q26 earnings season: internal dispersion across energy, utilities and mining, with attention on follow-on catalysts

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs Energy, Utilities & Mining Pulse weekly research note, focused on which stocks outperformed or underperformed during the 1Q26 earnings season and what to watch as the market moves into 2Q26 after earnings. The report covers integrated oil & gas and refining, oilfield services, E&P, midstream, utilities, clean tech, metals and mining, and other sub-sectors, while combining investor conversations to summarize stock performance, fundamental drivers, valuation debates and follow-on catalysts.

Core views

The core view of the report is that post-1Q26 earnings, the sector did not trade in lockstep. Instead, relative performance was driven by operating quality, commodity-price sensitivity, order visibility, capital returns, the regulatory backdrop and data-center power demand. Goldman remains constructive on several Buy-rated names: CVE benefits from strong operations, cash flow and deleveraging; COP's relative weakness is seen as an opportunity; HAL benefits from a balanced North American and international exposure; TOU benefits from improved natural gas and liquids pricing plus cost optimization; KGS benefits from strong compression demand and power-deployment backlog; LNG pulled back after earnings, but its medium-term DCF and contract quality remain supportive; NEE still offers defensive and growth characteristics; ENPH is supported by 2H26 growth drivers, new products and TPO market attention; NUE is supported by steel prices and spread expansion; and FCX is facing a short-term Grasberg ramp issue, but remains highly levered to copper prices.

Analysis framework

The report uses an earnings-season cross-sectional comparison approach, taking April 15 to May 14, 2026 as the observation window, and compares the relative stock performance of the coverage universe one by one as earnings, guidance and macro conditions evolve. It then decomposes price moves into earnings results, guidance changes, commodity prices, order or project progress, regulation and policy, capital returns, investor expectation gaps and valuation debates. Investor conversations are also used to capture the market's top questions and potential catalysts.

Methodology notes

• 业绩复盘1Q26 earnings-cycle dispersion review

  Use stock performance inside the earnings-season window to identify sub-sector winners and losers

  The report uses April 15 to May 14 as the 1Q26 earnings-season observation period to compare how covered stocks diverged around earnings releases, guidance updates and macro changes.

• 基本面驱动拆解earnings, guidance, commodity and catalyst attribution

  Attribute share-price moves to earnings, commodity prices, orders, capital returns and regulation

  For example, NUE was driven by steel-price and metal-spread expansion, FCX was dragged by a lower Grasberg production ramp path, and NEE was supported by EPS growth and data-center load expectations.

• 投资者情绪跟踪investor inbound conversation tracker

  Identify market debate points and follow-on catalysts through investor inbound questions

  The report records investor focus on names such as FANG, OvV, MPC, PSX, VST, NRG, NEE, FLNC, NXT and steel-price beneficiaries.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CVE

  A strong name in integrated and refining, and one of the Buy-rated stocks

  Strengths

  Strong 1Q26 earnings, expected West White Rose startup in 3Q26 that should lift production and free cash flow, better-than-expected Christina Lake North integration progress, and 2027/2028 free cash flow yields of about 9%/10%.

  Weaknesses

  Refining and marketing make up a relatively small share of the portfolio, and near-term capital allocation is skewed toward debt reduction rather than buybacks.

  Comparison

  The report says it should continue to outperform Canadian oil & gas peers.

  Risks

  Commodity price pullbacks, project delays or integration progress that falls short of expectations.

• COP

  Post-earnings laggard in integrated oil & gas/upstream, but viewed by Goldman as an opportunity

  Strengths

  Goldman estimates free cash flow per share CAGR of about 20%-25% through 2030, driven by the four growth projects NFE, NFS, Port Arthur and Willow, plus about $1 billion of cost cuts and margin improvement.

  Weaknesses

  The market worries about weaker realized U.S. natural gas prices, high Willow spending and lighter 1Q buybacks.

  Comparison

  The relative weakness is seen as mismatched with the underlying fundamentals.

  Risks

  Willow execution, natural gas prices, geopolitical disruptions and capital returns that fall short of expectations.

• HAL

  A strong name in oilfield services

  Strengths

  About 60/40 international/North American revenue exposure makes the business more balanced; 1Q26 earnings beat consensus and were supported by U.S. land activity and expectations for Middle East service demand.

  Weaknesses

  Still subject to the oilfield-services cycle and activity levels.

  Comparison

  Relative to other oilfield-services companies, the market prefers its balanced regional exposure.

  Risks

  Commodity price pullback, cooling North American activity or lower-than-expected international project demand.

• FTI

  A relative laggard in oilfield services but still discussed as an order-growth exposure

  Strengths

  Order cadence and backlog remain solid, and management believes offshore and subsea infrastructure spending could increase before the end of the decade.

  Weaknesses

  It receives less attention than oilfield-services names with higher commodity beta and direct rig-count exposure.

  Comparison

  It underperformed other names in the oilfield-services coverage universe during the earnings season.

  Risks

  Slower order conversion, delayed offshore projects, or continued investor preference for higher-beta oilfield-services names.

• TOU.TO

  A strong name in E&P

  Strengths

  Solid 1Q26 earnings, improved liquids pricing and AECO, plus cost optimization and pricing realization that improved margins; direct LNG pricing exposure lifted realized natural gas prices.

  Weaknesses

  The broader natural gas backdrop remains volatile.

  Comparison

  It has outperformed E&P peers since earnings season began.

  Risks

  Lower natural gas prices, or facilities-buildout and operating execution that fall short of expectations.

• NFG

  A relative laggard in E&P

  Strengths

  The stock had already shown a meaningful relative improvement versus peers earlier in 2025.

  Weaknesses

  F2Q26 production came in below expectations, some Lower Utica wells performed poorly, and Pennsylvania regulation and rate-case concerns weighed on sentiment.

  Comparison

  It has underperformed E&P peers since the earnings season began.

  Risks

  Production that continues to miss expectations, weaker Henry Hub prices, and regulatory and utility-rate uncertainty.

• KGS

  A strong name in midstream

  Strengths

  Compression demand is strong, power-deployment backlog is above expectations, the fleet is expected to reach 2 GW by 2030, and new unit orders extend into 2028 and early 2029.

  Weaknesses

  Growth depends on execution, commercialization and balance-sheet management.

  Comparison

  Since April 15, it is up +21%, outperforming AMNA's +8%.

  Risks

  The pace of power deployment, changes in compression-equipment supply and demand, or execution that misses expectations.

• LNG

  A post-earnings pullback in midstream/LNG, but the view remains constructive

  Strengths

  1Q26 EBITDA beat Goldman/consensus by 2%/13%, the midpoint of 2026 EBITDA guidance was raised from roughly $7.0 billion to $7.5 billion, more than 95% of contracts are take-or-pay, and capital returns are steady.

  Weaknesses

  Expectations were high going into earnings, and the lack of a formal commercial update and softer quarter-over-quarter buybacks disappointed investors.

  Comparison

  It outperformed from the Middle East conflict through the pre-earnings period, but underperformed AMNA after earnings.

  Risks

  New long-term contracts, Corpus and SPL expansion progress that falls short of expectations, and narrowing global gas-price margins.

• NEE

  A strong name in utilities and a defensive growth name

  Strengths

  1Q26 results beat consensus, showing about 10% year-over-year EPS growth and adding 4 GW of backlog; Florida's regulatory backdrop is favorable, and there are catalysts from large-load FPL demand and data centers.

  Weaknesses

  After the sharp share-price run, the absolute upside to target price has narrowed, and valuation is now the main concern for some investors.

  Comparison

  Goldman expects an average 10% EPS growth through 2030, above the market's roughly 8% growth expectation.

  Risks

  A valuation pullback, regulatory changes, and delays in confirming large-load projects or data-center demand.

• NRG

  A contentious utilities/IPPs name

  Strengths

  PJM strength can partly offset weaker Texas pricing; the pullback in valuation is attracting renewed interest from some generalist investors.

  Weaknesses

  The post-earnings pullback was sharp, with weaker Texas power prices, local resistance to data centers and policy uncertainty weighing on sentiment.

  Comparison

  Compared with NEE, NRG faces greater policy and market-price uncertainty.

  Risks

  An ERCOT data-center 1 GW announcement that falls short of expectations, continued weakness in Texas power prices, and ongoing regulatory uncertainty.

• ENPH

  A strong name in clean technology

  Strengths

  Supported by growth drivers from 2H26 onward, new battery products, the IQ9 inverter for the C&I market, prepaid leases, safe-harbor activity and opportunities in solid-state transformers.

  Weaknesses

  After the strong run, expectations for new products and market-share gains are high.

  Comparison

  It has been the strongest performer in Goldman’s clean-tech coverage since the earnings season began.

  Risks

  Failure to gain TPO market share, or product launches and demand recovery that fall short of expectations.

• PNR

  A relative laggard in clean-tech coverage

  Strengths

  1Q26 earnings were relatively solid, and the bottom end of FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance was slightly raised.

  Weaknesses

  Only the low end of EPS guidance was raised, while the low end of revenue-growth guidance was slightly cut, and the market is worried about end-demand in pools and related businesses.

  Comparison

  Other water-related names also sold off after relatively solid earnings, showing that the hurdle was high at the start of the year.

  Risks

  Insufficient macro demand improvement, weak pool demand and revenue growth that falls short of expectations.

• NUE

  A strong name in metals & mining/steel

  Strengths

  Quarterly results were significantly better than expected, the 2Q commentary was constructive, and as the largest U.S. steel producer it benefits from import substitution, shipment growth and favorable pricing; the metal spread has expanded by about 12% quarter over quarter.

  Weaknesses

  The stock has already risen, so the market must decide how much good news is already priced in.

  Comparison

  Goldman continues to list NUE as one of its favorites.

  Risks

  A peak in steel prices, rising imports, spread compression or earnings revisions that come in below expectations.

• FCX

  A metals & mining/copper name that has lagged in the near term but remains highly correlated with copper prices

  Strengths

  The production issue is described as delayed rather than permanently lost; a rebound in copper prices can offset part of the EBITDA hit and support the share-price recovery.

  Weaknesses

  The Grasberg Block Cave ramp path was cut, with about 65% capacity expected by end-2026 versus roughly 85% previously, and about 600 million pounds of production delayed from 2026-2028.

  Comparison

  From earnings day to the May 7 low, FCX fell about 21% while copper fell about 5%; copper then rebounded about 10%, helping FCX rebound about 20%.

  Risks

  Lack of confidence in the new Grasberg production path, a pullback in copper prices, or insufficient multiple re-rating.

Key data

• Observation window2026-04-15 to 2026-05-14Used to measure each stock's relative performance during the 1Q26 earnings season.
• CVE earnings-season performance+19%Cenovus Energy is listed as a strong name in integrated and refining, and the report says its total return potential at current levels is about 21%.
• COP potential total returnabout 24%Goldman views ConocoPhillips' post-earnings relative weakness as an opportunity and reiterates its Buy rating.
• HAL earnings-season performance+10%Halliburton is supported by a balanced 60/40 international/North American revenue exposure, signals of U.S. land activity and expectations for Middle East service demand.
• TOU earnings-season performance+10%Tourmaline Oil is driven by earnings, improved commodity prices, cost optimization and improved LNG-linked pricing exposure.
• KGS earnings-season performance+21%Kodiak Gas Services outperformed AMNA's +8%, supported by strong compression demand and a power-deployment backlog.
• LNG post-earnings performancepost-earnings -8%Cheniere's earnings and the upward revision to its 2026 EBITDA guidance remain solid, but investor expectations were high and there was no formal commercial update.
• NEE EPS growth expectationGoldman expects an average of about 10% through 2030Consensus is about 8% average growth over the next few years, and the report sees upside risk.
• ENPH earnings-season performance+46%Enphase Energy is a strong name in clean tech coverage, supported by 2H26 growth drivers, new products and TPO market-share discussions.
• NUE earnings-season performance+23%Nucor is supported by a better-than-expected quarter, 2Q commentary, import substitution and metal-spread expansion.
• FCX production impactabout 600 million pounds of copper production delayed from 2026-2028Freeport-McMoRan underperformed due to a lower Grasberg Block Cave ramp path, but the report argues the production is delayed rather than permanently lost.
• Natural gas valuation referencegas-linked E&P names imply long-term Henry Hub of about $3.65/MMBtuThe chart title shows Goldman’s mid-cycle view is $3.75/MMBtu, with 2026/2027/2028 futures at about $3.66/$3.49/$3.69/MMBtu.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report suggests shifting from a simple sector-beta view to catalyst screening at the sub-sector and individual-stock level. Rising commodity prices are supportive for some oil & gas, steel and copper-related stocks, but not all names benefit equally; data-center power demand is becoming a key narrative for utilities, EPCs, power equipment and storage-related companies; and regulation, project execution, capital returns and valuation expectation gaps may determine whether post-earnings winners continue to outperform.

Risks

• Commodity price pullbacks, especially in oil, Henry Hub natural gas, steel and copper, could weaken cash flow and the case for earnings revisions.
• Project execution risks, including Willow, West White Rose, CCL Stage 3, Grasberg Block Cave, compression-equipment deliveries and power-deployment plans.
• Regulatory and policy risks, including uncertainty in Florida, PJM, ERCOT, Pennsylvania, and local approvals and power-market policy around data centers.
• Overly high post-earnings expectations could lead to pullbacks even when results are solid, such as for LNG and some clean-tech or water companies.
• Valuation risk: stocks benefiting from the power-demand theme, such as NEE, MTZ and AGX, may face valuation debates after a strong run.
• Geopolitical and Middle East disruptions could affect oil & gas assets, global gas-price margins, supply chains and investor risk appetite.

What to watch

• CVE's West White Rose startup, Christina Lake North integration progress and deleveraging pace.
• COP's Willow progress, the advancement of NFE/NFS/Port Arthur projects, cost cuts and the resumption of buybacks.
• HAL and FTI's North American and international oilfield activity, Middle East service demand, and offshore/subsea order conversion.
• TOU and gas-linked E&P names' AECO, Henry Hub curve, LNG-linked pricing exposure and data-center co-location opportunities.
• KGS's power-deployment commercialization, extension of compression-equipment orders and balance-sheet strength.
• LNG's new long-term contracts, Corpus and SPL brownfield expansion, buyback cadence and DCF delivery.
• NEE and FPL's large-load announcements, data-center hubs, further clarity on EPS growth guidance and potential Point Beach updates.
• VST and NRG's policy clarity in PJM and ERCOT, Texas power prices, data-center load realization and new capacity plans.
• ENPH's new battery products, IQ9 inverter, prepaid leases, TPO market share and solid-state transformer opportunities.
• Earnings pass-through for NUE, CMC and other steel names from higher HDG and CRC prices, and whether higher imports limit steel upside.
• FCX's new Grasberg ramp trajectory, copper-price trend and the restoration of investor confidence in the production path.