US Macro Week Ahead: Focus on New Home Sales as the Fed Enters Its FOMC Blackout Period

Overview

This report is a US macroeconomic weekly calendar published by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, covering July 20–26, 2026. It notes that the week contains relatively few major data releases, with Friday’s new home sales being the most important. Federal Reserve officials are not expected to comment publicly on monetary policy because of the blackout period ahead of the July FOMC meeting.

Core views

The core views are as follows: first, market focus this week will center on June new home sales, initial jobless claims, continuing claims, and the preliminary July S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs; second, manufacturing survey signals are relatively resilient—although the Goldman Sachs manufacturing survey tracker edged down in June, the July Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing indexes both exceeded expectations, while new orders, shipments, and employment components strengthened; third, growth tracking data improved, with the Q2 GDP tracking estimate raised to +2.5%; fourth, housing demand remains a weak spot, and residential fixed investment is expected to show limited growth in the second half of 2026.

Analysis framework

The report combines a macroeconomic event calendar with high-frequency tracking indicators. It first lists the release times and market consensus for key economic data during the week, then provides Goldman Sachs forecasts, prior readings, and interpretations of manufacturing, non-manufacturing, housing, GDP, and current activity indicators.

Methodology notes

• Macro calendarUS Week Ahead

  Organizing upcoming US economic data and policy communication windows by date

  By listing release times, Goldman Sachs forecasts, market consensus, and prior readings, the framework helps investors assess short-term macroeconomic information shocks.

• Economic trackingGDP tracking estimate

  GDP tracking estimate

  Based on stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production data, the report raised its Q2 GDP tracking estimate to +2.5% annualized quarter-over-quarter.

• Economic trackingCurrent Activity Indicator

  Current Activity Indicator

  The preliminary July Current Activity Indicator was +4.0%, above +2.8% in June, and is used to measure near-real-time momentum in US economic activity.

• Economic surprisesUS MAP index

  Economic Surprise Index

  The US MAP Economic Surprise Index was +0.5, indicating that recent data were slightly more positive than expected.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• US rates and Treasuries

  Macroeconomic data and expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting will affect rate pricing

  Strengths

  Higher Q2 GDP tracking and Current Activity Indicator readings may support the narrative of economic resilience.

  Weaknesses

  Weak housing demand may limit optimism about growth.

  Comparison

  Compared with policy remarks, this week’s data releases are likely to have a more significant marginal impact on rate expectations.

  Risks

  If new home sales or PMIs deviate materially from expectations, the yield curve may reprice.

• US dollar

  US growth and economic surprise data affect the dollar’s relative performance

  Strengths

  A positive Economic Surprise Index and improving activity indicators provide some support for the dollar.

  Weaknesses

  Continued weakness in housing data could erode the growth advantage.

  Comparison

  The dollar’s drivers this week are likely to be more data-oriented than centered on Federal Reserve communication.

  Risks

  With limited policy communication ahead of the FOMC meeting, the market may overreact to individual data releases.

• US housing-related assets

  New home sales and residential fixed investment expectations are directly linked to the housing sector

  Strengths

  June new home sales are expected to rebound month over month, with Goldman Sachs forecasting +3.0%.

  Weaknesses

  Goldman Sachs expects housing demand to remain moderate in the second half of 2026, with residential fixed investment down 3.2% Q4/Q4 in 2026.

  Comparison

  The housing sector appears weaker than the overall GDP tracking data.

  Risks

  Mortgage rates, affordability, and inventory changes could continue to pressure sales and investment.

Key data

• June new home salesGS +3.0%, consensus +4.6%, prior -7.3%Released Friday at 10:00 AM; the report identifies it as the key economic release of the week.
• Initial jobless claimsGS 205k, consensus 211k, prior 208kFor the week ending July 18; released Thursday at 08:30 AM.
• Continuing jobless claimsConsensus 1,808k, prior 1,805kFor the week ending July 11.
• Preliminary S&P Global US Manufacturing PMIConsensus 54.4, prior 53.9July preliminary reading, released Thursday at 09:45 AM.
• Preliminary S&P Global US Services PMIConsensus 51.5, prior 51.2July preliminary reading, released Thursday at 09:45 AM.
• Goldman Sachs manufacturing survey trackerDown 1.0 point in June to 54.0However, the July Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing indexes both exceeded expectations, indicating stronger internal composition.
• Goldman Sachs non-manufacturing survey trackerDown 0.2 point in June to 52.8Indicating a slight pullback in services-related survey momentum.
• Q2 GDP tracking estimate+2.5% annualized quarter-over-quarterRaised following stronger-than-expected retail sales and industrial production reports.
• Q2 domestic final sales estimate+2.5%Consistent with the Q2 GDP tracking estimate.
• Preliminary July Current Activity Indicator+4.0%Above +2.8% in June.
• US MAP Economic Surprise Index+0.5Indicating that recent US economic data were slightly more positive than expected.
• Residential fixed investment forecast2026 Q3 -1.5%, 2026 Q4 +1.5%, both annualized growth ratesCorresponding to a 3.2% Q4/Q4 decline in 2026 and reflecting still-weak housing demand in the second half of the year.

Impact & implications

For investment implications, the report signals improving but uneven short-term US growth: GDP and current activity indicators are firm, and some manufacturing components have improved, but housing demand remains subdued. At the same time, the Federal Reserve blackout period means there may be fewer policy signals this week than data releases, so short-term market reactions in rates, the dollar, and risk assets are more likely to center on new home sales, jobless claims, and PMI data.

Risks

• New home sales fall short of expectations, reinforcing signals of weak housing demand.
• Higher initial or continuing jobless claims could alter the market’s assessment of labor-market resilience.
• PMI preliminary readings fall below consensus, weakening the narrative of improving manufacturing and services momentum.
• The Federal Reserve blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting limits policy communication, so individual data points could trigger greater market volatility.
• The report notes that research views and forecasts may change as new information becomes available and do not constitute personalized investment advice.

What to watch

• June new home sales, released Friday at 10:00 AM.
• Initial and continuing jobless claims, released Thursday at 08:30 AM.
• Preliminary July S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs, released Thursday at 09:45 AM.
• Subsequent updates to Goldman Sachs’ GDP tracking estimate, Current Activity Indicator, and US MAP Economic Surprise Index.
• Policy statements and subsequent Federal Reserve official communications before and after the July FOMC meeting.