Online sales growth for U.S. apparel brands in China slows, with Soft Luxury relatively outperforming

Overview

This report uses the UBS Evidence Lab China Online Market Monitor to track GMV, unit sales, and average selling prices for 27 U.S. apparel brands on major online platforms in China. The core conclusion is that overall online sales momentum for U.S. apparel brands in China weakened in June 2026, with the industry index declining year over year and growth on trailing-period measures also slowing materially, although Soft Luxury and certain brands continued to grow strongly.

Core views

At the industry level, the US Softlines China Online GMV index declined 4% year over year in June, slowing by approximately 360 basis points from the prior month; the trailing 3-month and 1-year measures grew 1% year over year, but growth slowed sequentially by approximately 700 basis points. At the brand level, Coach, Michael Kors, Canada Goose, Hoka, and Crocs posted relatively strong growth, while Lululemon, Abercrombie & Fitch, Converse, Jimmy Choo, and Nike declined significantly year over year. By category, Soft Luxury grew 3% and was the leading contributor, Men's Apparel and Women's Apparel were flat, Sports & Fitness Apparel declined 3%, and Sports & Fitness Footwear declined 5%.

Analysis framework

The report uses e-commerce platform transaction data as its core evidence, aggregates GMV from 27 U.S. apparel brands on Tmall and Taobao into an industry index, and further decomposes growth by brand, trailing time window, and category contribution. The focus is not on assigning individual stock ratings, but on assessing demand in the Chinese market, brand momentum, and category divergence through high-frequency online sales data.

Methodology notes

• Alternative data monitoringUBS Evidence Lab China Online Market Monitor

  Online GMV index

  The index monitors GMV, unit sales, and average selling prices of major consumer brands on China's Tmall and Taobao platforms to create online market performance indicators at the brand and industry levels; the data are refreshed monthly and incorporated into the analysis after UBS Evidence Lab data-quality checks.

• Growth decompositionYear-over-year and trailing 3-month measures

  Comparison of short-term monthly performance and smoothed trends

  The report examines both the year-over-year change for June and changes over trailing 3-month and 1-year periods to distinguish monthly fluctuations from smoother trend movements.

• Industry contribution analysisGMV Contribution to y/y change

  Category contribution

  The report decomposes overall softlines apparel GMV changes into Soft Luxury, Men's Apparel, Women's Apparel, Sports & Fitness Apparel, and Sports & Fitness Footwear to identify sources of growth and areas of drag.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Tapestry / Coach

  Beneficiary brand

  Strengths

  Coach's June GMV grew 64% year over year and 90% year over year on a trailing 3-month basis, making it the strongest performer in the sample.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide margin, discount intensity, or offline channel data; strong online GMV growth does not necessarily imply improved profitability.

  Comparison

  Significantly outperformed the industry's 4% year-over-year decline in June and the industry's 1% growth on a trailing 3-month basis.

  Risks

  If growth is promotion-driven, the brand could subsequently face gross-margin pressure or a slowdown in growth.

• Capri Holdings / Michael Kors

  Beneficiary brand

  Strengths

  Michael Kors's June GMV grew 57% year over year and 44% year over year on a trailing 3-month basis, ranking among the leaders.

  Weaknesses

  Jimmy Choo, another brand within the group, declined 31% year over year in June, indicating uneven performance within the portfolio.

  Comparison

  Michael Kors performed significantly better than the industry overall and most softlines brands.

  Risks

  The sustainability of brand growth, discount intensity, and the Chinese consumer environment require continued monitoring.

• Canada Goose

  Relatively strong brand

  Strengths

  June GMV grew 50% year over year and 41% year over year on a trailing 3-month basis.

  Weaknesses

  Seasonality, price positioning, and high-end consumer sensitivity could affect subsequent performance.

  Comparison

  Significantly outperformed the industry average and ranked among the leaders on both monthly and trailing-period measures.

  Risks

  A cooling high-end consumer environment or seasonal weather changes could introduce volatility.

• Nike

  Under-pressure brand

  Strengths

  Nike remains a core sports brand within the coverage universe, and the report includes its time series and valuation tables.

  Weaknesses

  June GMV declined 25% year over year, while the trailing 3-month measure declined 13% year over year.

  Comparison

  Significantly underperformed the industry index and Adidas, which grew 19% in June and 26% on a trailing-period basis.

  Risks

  Weak demand in China's online sports category, intensifying competition, and weakening brand momentum.

• Lululemon

  Under-pressure brand

  Strengths

  The brand remains in the highly watched sportswear segment.

  Weaknesses

  June GMV declined 45% year over year, while the trailing 3-month measure declined 48% year over year, placing it among the largest decliners in the sample.

  Comparison

  Significantly underperformed the industry overall and most sportswear and apparel brands.

  Risks

  A high base, competition, slowing demand, or channel factors could continue to weigh on online GMV performance.

Key data

• June industry GMV index year-over-year change-4%The US Softlines China Online GMV index declined year over year in June.
• Change in June industry GMV index sequential growthApproximately -360 basis pointsYear-over-year growth slowed by approximately 360 basis points from the prior month.
• Industry GMV year-over-year change on trailing 3-month and 1-year measures+1%Growth remained positive on trailing-period measures, but momentum slowed materially.
• Change in sequential growth on trailing 3-month and 1-year measuresApproximately -700 basis pointsGrowth on trailing-period measures slowed by approximately 700 basis points from the prior month.
• Number of brands with year-over-year growth in June14/2714 of the 27 index brands posted year-over-year GMV growth in June.
• Top three brands by June year-over-year growthCoach +64%; Michael Kors +57%; Canada Goose +50%Ranked from highest to lowest by June year-over-year GMV growth.
• Brands with larger June year-over-year declinesAbercrombie & Fitch -55%; Converse -55%; Lululemon -45%These brands recorded significant year-over-year declines in China online GMV in June.
• Leading category performanceSoft Luxury +3%Soft Luxury was the strongest-performing subcategory during the period.
• Lagging category performanceSports & Fitness Footwear -5%Sports & Fitness Footwear was one of the main sources of drag.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that the incremental contribution from China's online channels to U.S. apparel brands is weakening, warranting a more cautious assessment of overall industry demand and brand momentum. Brand divergence is significant: Soft Luxury-related brands such as Coach and Michael Kors performed strongly, potentially reflecting stronger brand appeal or advantages in promotional and channel execution; declines among sports, casual, and certain apparel brands point to possible inventory, weak demand, or competitive pressures.

Risks

• Deterioration in consumer health could affect sales and margins for softlines apparel companies.
• Slower macro consumer spending or a rising unemployment rate could suppress demand.
• Changes in fashion trends and shifts in customer preferences could lead to incorrect brand assessments.
• Poor inventory management could result in heavier discounting and gross-margin pressure.
• Online GMV data cannot fully reflect offline channels, margins, discount intensity, or companies' overall profitability.

What to watch

• Whether the US Softlines China Online GMV index continues to decline year over year in subsequent months.
• Whether the strong growth of Coach, Michael Kors, and Canada Goose can be sustained on trailing-period measures.
• Whether under-pressure brands such as Nike, Lululemon, Converse, and Abercrombie & Fitch begin to recover.
• Whether Soft Luxury's relative strength continues and Sports & Fitness Footwear remains a drag.
• Changes in unit sales, average selling prices, and promotional intensity on China's Tmall and Taobao platforms.