Strong order momentum and new business catalysts support Lead Intelligent's growth in 2026

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' conference note on Lead Intelligent following the Asia Communacopia + Technology conference. The core view is that visibility is improving for the company's recovery in orders, revenue, and net profit in 2026, the battery equipment cycle in its core business is more sustainable than the previous round, and sodium batteries, all-solid-state batteries, 3C equipment, and humanoid robot-related equipment provide a second growth curve.

Core views

Goldman Sachs' main conclusion from the conference is that company-level order growth at Lead Intelligent has upside risk above its FY26 target of 30%-50%. Orders hit a record Rmb9.6bn in 1Q26, and April orders still maintained slightly above 60% year-over-year growth; energy storage capex is the core short-term driver, while power batteries continue to be supported by new applications such as electric heavy trucks, electrification of construction machinery, humanoid robots/eVTOL, and the recovery of overseas NEVs. Compared with the 2022 cycle, this round of expansion is more concentrated among the top 5-8 battery makers and is constrained by UTR and regulatory approvals, so the cycle peak may be less steep and more durable.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on discussions with management, combined with order trends, downstream capex discipline, the demand mix for energy storage and power batteries, CATL's sodium battery capacity plans, progress in 3C and humanoid robot partnerships, as well as Goldman Sachs' valuation multiples, ratings, and risk framework within its coverage universe.

Methodology notes

• Valuation and rating2027E P/E valuation

  A-shares are valued at 30x 2027E P/E, while H-shares apply a 20% H/A discount relative to A-shares, corresponding to 24x 2027E P/E.

  Goldman Sachs assigns a 12-month target price of Rmb61.0 for A-shares and HK$55.6 for H-shares; A-shares are viewed as fairly valued and rated Neutral, while H-shares are considered more attractive due to relatively stronger return potential versus coverage averages and a lower trading P/E, and are rated Buy.

• Risk frameworkPrice Target Risks and Methodology

  Target price assumptions are tested through upside and downside risks.

  Upside risks include EV development, ESS capacity expansion, maturation of all-solid-state battery technology, and faster-than-expected expansion of new businesses; downside risks include an EV slowdown, weaker-than-expected ESS expansion, and slower-than-expected expansion in new businesses such as photovoltaics and consumer electronics.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Compares the stock with the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite dimensions.

  Growth factors use forward sales, EBITDA, and EPS growth; financial return factors use ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; valuation multiples use P/E, P/B, dividend-related indicators, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF, and others.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Goldman Sachs uses an M&A ranking from 1 to 3 to assess the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target.

  A rank of 1 represents a higher probability, rank 2 a medium probability, and rank 3 a lower probability; if the rank is 1 or 2, M&A factors may be incorporated into the target price.

• Data toolQuantum database

  Goldman Sachs' proprietary database for historical financial statements, forecasts, and ratio analysis.

  Quantum can be used for deep analysis of a single company as well as cross-industry and cross-market company comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Lead Intelligent-A（300450.SZ）

  Core A-share research target.

  Strengths

  Strong order trends, about 25% global market share in smart lithium battery equipment, clear catalysts in energy storage and sodium-battery equipment, and profitability expected to recover from the 2024/2025 trough.

  Weaknesses

  Goldman Sachs believes the A-share valuation is close to its historical average and the fair level implied by the target price, so the rating is Neutral.

  Comparison

  Compared with H-shares, the A-share valuation multiple uses 30x 2027E P/E and does not apply an H-share discount.

  Risks

  A slowdown in EV development, weaker-than-expected ESS expansion, and slower-than-expected new business expansion could weigh on orders and valuation.

• Lead Intelligent-H

  H-share mapped asset of the same company.

  Strengths

  Shares the same fundamentals as the A-shares, but Goldman Sachs believes H-shares trade at a lower P/E than A-shares and offer more attractive return potential relative to coverage averages.

  Weaknesses

  Target valuation applies a 20% discount relative to A-shares, reflecting factors related to the H/A share discount.

  Comparison

  The H-share target valuation is 24x 2027E P/E, lower than the A-share 30x; the rating is Buy, above the A-share Neutral.

  Risks

  Shares the same industry and company fundamental risks as the A-shares, while also being affected by changes in the H/A discount and market liquidity preferences.

• Battery equipment and energy storage supply chain

  The main downstream driver of Lead Intelligent's order growth.

  Strengths

  AIDC/data center ESS, energy storage capacity expansion, new power battery applications, overseas NEV recovery, and sodium battery capacity expansion jointly support equipment demand.

  Weaknesses

  Capex still depends on the actual expansion pace of leading customers and project approvals.

  Comparison

  The report believes this cycle is more concentrated than in 2022 and more constrained by UTR and IRR discipline, making it more sustainable.

  Risks

  If end-demand or customer expansion approvals slow, equipment order releases may come in below expectations.

Key data

• 1Q26 ordersRmb9.6bn, up 60% year over yearManagement said 1Q26 was a record level, and April order growth was slightly above 60% year over year.
• FY26 order growth target+30% to +50%Goldman Sachs believes there is upside risk for the company's overall order growth to exceed this target range.
• 2026 order mixESS and power batteries about 50/50Energy storage growth has already exceeded power batteries, but power batteries still have incremental support from heavy trucks, construction machinery, emerging industries, and the recovery of overseas NEVs.
• CATL sodium-battery energy storage capacityAbout 60GWh, targeted for launch by the end of 2026Of this, phase one of 40GWh has passed environmental review and is expected to release tenders in 2H26.
• Potential sodium-battery equipment ordersMid-tens of billions of renminbiAssuming CATL's sodium batteries scale up; due to its early technology positioning and limited competitors, Lead Intelligent's share may be higher than in lithium battery equipment.
• Global smart lithium battery equipment market shareAbout 25%The report states that Lead Intelligent is a leading global battery equipment manufacturer.
• Battery capex exposureAbout 80%Goldman Sachs expects the company's battery capex exposure to rise, supported by a healthy customer mix, energy storage, Tier 1 concentration, and the all-solid-state battery trend.
• ESS contributionAbout 40% of battery orders in 2026E-2030EAcceleration in energy storage systems is key to the medium- to long-term change in the order mix.
• 2026E-2030E revenue/net profit CAGR24%/29%Profitability is expected to recover from the trough in 2024/2025, with net margin reaching 13.3% by 2030E.
• Target price and valuationA-shares Rmb61.0, 30x 2027E P/E; H-shares HK$55.6, 24x 2027E P/EH-share valuation uses a 20% discount relative to A-shares.

Impact & implications

If order trends continue as management expects, the investment focus for Lead Intelligent will shift from a simple recovery in the lithium battery equipment cycle to multi-dimensional growth driven jointly by energy storage, sodium batteries, all-solid-state batteries, 3C equipment, and humanoid robot equipment. For A-shares, the relatively full valuation keeps the rating neutral; for H-shares, the relative discount and return potential make Goldman Sachs more constructive.

Risks

• A more severe slowdown in EV development in China and globally.
• ESS capacity expansion progresses more weakly than expected.
• Expansion of new businesses such as photovoltaics and consumer electronics is slower than expected.
• The maturity of all-solid-state battery technology and related equipment upgrade demand arrive later than expected.
• If the order recovery does not convert into revenue and net profit in a timely manner, the pace of earnings recovery may fall short of expectations.

What to watch

• Whether 2Q26 orders are no weaker than 1Q26, and whether revenue and net profit accelerate in line with the recovery in 2025 orders.
• The pace of tender releases for CATL's phase-one 40GWh sodium-battery energy storage project in 2H26, and the progress toward about 60GWh of capacity by the end of 2026.
• Whether AIDC and North American data center ESS demand is converted into Lead Intelligent's overseas orders through Korean battery OEMs.
• Progress in the adoption of 3D printing equipment in Apple/OPPO's new product manufacturing processes and the size of individual orders.
• Initial commercial milestones from the sale of about 1k units of equipment/systems under the X-Humanoid partnership, joint development of automated mass-production lines, and development of industrial application scenarios.
• Whether the UTR, IRR, and regulatory approval discipline of leading battery makers continues to support a more rational capex cycle.
• Whether net margin can gradually recover from the 2024/2025 trough and approach the 13.3% target expected by 2030E.