Global xEV sales resumed growth in April, with emerging markets and Europe driving the recovery

Overview

This report is Bernstein's monthly global EV and energy storage tracker, covering global passenger xEV sales in April 2026, regional sales, major OEMs, BEV/PHEV mix, power battery demand, battery chemistry systems, and EV trends in India. The report believes that EV and battery demand was weaker than expected at the start of 2026, but recovery signals emerged in March and April; the long-term trend of rising EV penetration remains intact, and battery demand continues to grow faster than vehicle sales due to larger battery packs and a higher BEV mix.

Core views

The core view is that global EV demand is gradually recovering from the weakness seen at the start of the year, but the recovery is uneven. Europe and other regions, especially India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and South Korea, are showing the strongest growth; China is under short-term pressure due to subsidy cuts and changes in purchase tax incentives; North America continues to decline after the removal of CVC incentives. BEVs are stronger than PHEVs, LFP share continues to expand, and battery demand is more resilient than vehicle sales. Along the supply chain, CATL maintains a clear lead, BYD remains a major vehicle and battery player, and Korean battery makers face greater short-term challenges due to insufficient U.S. EV demand, though a shift toward ESS could bring medium- to long-term opportunities.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly sales and registration tracking framework to break down global EV demand by region, powertrain type, OEM, vehicle model, battery supplier, and battery chemistry. China data mainly reflects retail vehicle registrations excluding exports; the database is updated monthly with about a one-month lag. The analysis focuses on comparing the gap between year-on-year, month-on-month, and year-to-date performance versus the full-year forecast.

Methodology notes

• Sales TrackingGlobal Passenger xEV Monthly Tracking

  Tracks global passenger xEV sales by BEV and PHEV, and breaks them down by region and OEM.

  This framework is used to assess whether EV demand is recovering, whether the sources of regional growth are changing, and whether share is shifting among major automakers.

• Regional BreakdownComparison of China, Europe, North America, and Other Regions

  Breaks global EV sales into China, Europe, North America, and RoW, and compares year-on-year growth rates and global share.

  The regional breakdown shows that the recovery is mainly coming from Europe and other regions, while China and North America are being dragged down by policy and subsidy changes.

• Battery Demand AnalysisPassenger EV Lithium Battery Demand and Supplier Share

  Measures battery demand in GWh and tracks suppliers such as CATL, BYD, LGES, Panasonic, and Samsung SDI.

  Battery demand is growing faster than vehicle sales due to a higher BEV mix and increasing battery capacity per vehicle, making it an important indicator for the battery supply chain cycle.

• Battery Chemistry SystemsLFP vs. NMC Installed Share

  Compares the installed shares of LFP and NMC globally, in China, and outside China.

  The rise in LFP share reflects the continued expansion of low-cost battery solutions and their spread from China to markets outside China.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CATL-A

  Core global play in the power battery and energy storage supply chain.

  Strengths

  Monthly installations of about 33.0GWh, up 29% year-on-year, with market share close to 40%, and continued progress in technologies such as LFP, M3P, sodium-ion, and Qilin batteries.

  Weaknesses

  Market expectations are high; if EV growth falls short of expectations or price competition intensifies, valuation and margins could come under pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with BYD, LGES, Panasonic, and Samsung SDI, CATL has a clear lead in market share.

  Risks

  Slowing EV demand, price wars, raw material price volatility, and overseas policy and trade restrictions.

• BYD

  Leading global xEV sales OEM and also a major battery supplier.

  Strengths

  Strong vertically integrated capabilities, still ranked first globally in xEV sales in April, with battery installations of about 14.2GWh.

  Weaknesses

  April vehicle sales fell 22% year-on-year, and battery share declined versus 2025.

  Comparison

  Sales scale exceeds Tesla and Geely, but short-term growth is weaker than some emerging brands.

  Risks

  China subsidy rollbacks, high base effects, domestic price competition, and policy risks in export markets.

• Tesla

  Core global BEV brand and a key name for monitoring the European recovery.

  Strengths

  Global sales of about 97,000 units in April, up 10% year-on-year; Model Y remains a major global BEV model; registrations in Germany and Europe recovered noticeably after March.

  Weaknesses

  European sales fell sharply in 2025, with some markets affected by model transitions and the regulatory environment.

  Comparison

  Still influential in BEV model sales, but faces competition in Europe from BMW, Mercedes, VW, and Chinese brands.

  Risks

  European autonomous driving regulation, price competition, model cycle, and changes in U.S. incentive policies.

• European OEMs and Premium Automakers

  Beneficiaries of rising BEV penetration and new model cycles in Europe.

  Strengths

  BMW and Mercedes posted strong BEV sales in Germany, while Mercedes' new platform and pricing for the China long-wheelbase CLA are competitive.

  Weaknesses

  VW brand BEV sales in Germany fell year-on-year, and some growth was driven by base effects and discounts.

  Comparison

  BMW and Mercedes are growing faster than VW in the short term; overall European BEV growth is stronger than in China and North America.

  Risks

  Changes in EU emissions policy, pressure from price discounting, and competition from Tesla and Chinese brands.

• Korean Battery Makers

  LGES, Samsung SDI, LG Chem, etc. are highly exposed to U.S. EV and ESS demand.

  Strengths

  Have localized production capacity in the U.S. and JV or supply relationships with OEMs, and are shifting toward ESS to capture data center demand.

  Weaknesses

  U.S. EV battery demand has fallen short of expectations, leading to insufficient capacity utilization; Samsung SDI's monthly sales fell about 33% to 34% year-on-year.

  Comparison

  Compared with CATL and BYD, Korean players have weaker market share and growth.

  Risks

  Weak U.S. EV demand, excess capacity, operating losses, and valuations that already reflect some ESS upside.

• LFP Battery Route

  Thematic asset tied to rising share in global battery chemistry systems.

  Strengths

  Global installed share rose to about 50%, and share outside China increased from 14% to 26%, showing expansion of the low-cost route.

  Weaknesses

  Still needs to compete with NMC in energy density and suitability for premium vehicle models.

  Comparison

  Global NMC share fell from about 54% to 49%, while LFP share rose from 45% to 50%.

  Risks

  Raw material prices, technological substitution, and regional differences in safety and performance standards.

• India EV Market

  An important source of EV demand growth in emerging markets.

  Strengths

  Combined 2W and 4W retail registrations rose 70% year-on-year, higher oil prices strengthened the total cost of ownership advantage, and e-4W hit a record high.

  Weaknesses

  Demand durability after changes in policy subsidies still needs to be observed, and some brands remain in the recovery phase.

  Comparison

  India's growth is significantly faster than China and North America, making it an important support for strong RoW growth.

  Risks

  Falling oil prices, subsidy rollbacks, charging infrastructure constraints, and consumer finance constraints.

Key data

• April Global Passenger xEV SalesAbout 1.59 million units, up 7% year-on-year and down about 10% month-on-monthThe report says signs of demand recovery emerged in March and April.
• 2026 Year-to-Date Global xEV SalesAbout 3.8 million units, up 1% year-on-yearBelow the pace implied by the report's 14% full-year 2026 EV sales growth forecast.
• 2026 Global xEV Penetration ForecastAbout 32%Higher than about 28% in 2025.
• China April xEV SalesAbout 860,000 units, accounting for 54% of the global total, down 6% year-on-yearMainly affected by subsidy cuts and adjustments to purchase tax incentives.
• Europe April xEV SalesAbout 403,000 units, accounting for 25% of the global total, up 27% year-on-yearBEV and PHEV grew about 33% and 16% year-on-year, respectively.
• North America April xEV SalesAbout 106,000 units, accounting for 7% of the global total, down 28% year-on-yearDemand remained under pressure after the removal of CVC incentives.
• Other Regions April xEV SalesAbout 226,000 units, up 111% year-on-yearMarkets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and South Korea grew rapidly.
• April BEV SalesAbout 1.14 million units, up 17% year-on-yearBEVs were the main driver of xEV sales across China, Europe, North America, and other regions.
• April PHEV SalesAbout 456,000 to 457,000 units, down 11% year-on-yearPHEVs underperformed BEVs.
• April Passenger EV Battery DemandAbout 86GWh to 87GWh, up 17% year-on-yearBattery demand growth outpaced vehicle sales growth.
• 2026 Year-to-Date Passenger EV Battery DemandAbout 299GWh to 304GWh, up 9% year-on-yearThe report believes the full-year 18% growth target is still achievable.
• Major OEM Monthly SalesBYD about 226,000 units, Tesla about 97,000 units, Geely about 79,000 units, Changan about 68,000 units, LeapMotor about 67,000 unitsBYD fell 22% year-on-year, Tesla rose 10% year-on-year, and LeapMotor rose 123% year-on-year.
• Major Battery SuppliersCATL about 33.0GWh, BYD about 14.2GWh, LGES about 7.7GWh, Panasonic about 2.8GWh, Samsung SDI about 1.6GWhCATL's monthly installations rose 29% year-on-year, maintaining a clear lead.
• Battery Chemistry SystemsLFP global share about 50%, NMC about 49%LFP share in China was about 74%, while LFP share outside China rose to about 26%.
• India EV Registrations2W+4W combined about 190,000 units, up 70% year-on-yearHigher oil prices strengthened the TCO advantage; e-2W was about 167,000 units, up 66% year-on-year, and e-4W was about 26,000 units, up 98% year-on-year.

Impact & implications

The report's core investment implication is that the long-term EV penetration trend remains intact, but short-term differentiation across regions and supply-chain segments is required. Strong growth in Europe, India, and other regions helps offset cyclical pressure in China and North America; battery demand growing faster than vehicle sales benefits leading battery players with scale, technology, and cost advantages; rising LFP penetration reinforces the importance of the low-cost route; Korean battery makers are affected in the short term by U.S. capacity utilization and insufficient EV demand, but ESS and data center demand may become new supplementary growth drivers.

Risks

• China subsidy cuts and changes in purchase tax incentives may continue to suppress domestic EV demand in 2026.
• After the removal of U.S. CVC incentives, North American EV sales may remain flat or negative.
• Demand brought forward in 2024 to 2025 and high base effects may pressure China's auto wholesale and retail sales.
• Materials cost inflation, price wars, and weak macro consumption may compress margins for OEMs and battery makers.
• Korean battery makers still face high short-term operating loss risk due to insufficient U.S. EV capacity utilization.
• European emissions rules, changes to 2035 ICE policy, and autonomous driving regulation may alter the pace of OEM electrification.
• While ESS and data center demand have potential, valuations may already partially reflect upside expectations.

What to watch

• Whether global xEV monthly sales can sustain the recovery seen in March and April into the second half.
• Whether domestic EV demand in China can stabilize after subsidy rollbacks and the halving of purchase tax incentives.
• Whether North American sales bottom out after changes in U.S. incentive policies.
• Whether growth in European BEV registrations continues, and how new models from VW, BMW, Mercedes, and Tesla perform.
• Whether emerging markets such as India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and South Korea continue to contribute high growth.
• Whether passenger EV battery demand continues to outpace vehicle sales and approaches the full-year 18% growth target.
• Whether LFP penetration outside China continues to increase.
• Changes in installed share, pricing, and capacity utilization for CATL, BYD, LGES, and Samsung SDI.
• The extent to which ESS demand and data center construction drive battery company orders.