April China pet food online GMV growth slowed; China Pet Foods continued to significantly outperform

Overview

This report tracks online sales, brand share, exports, and raw material costs in China's pet food market in April 2026. The key conclusion is that industry GMV growth slowed but became more differentiated: online GMV rose only 1.1% YoY, mainly because ASP declines offset volume growth; JD and Douyin maintained double-digit growth, while Tmall declined noticeably. At the company level, China Pet Foods continued to significantly outperform, Gambol edged lower, and Petpal remained weak.

Core views

UBS's view of the industry is mixed: cat staple food and dog staple food remain relatively resilient, while cat snacks are under pressure; among online channels, JD performed best, Douyin also kept growing, and Tmall dragged down the overall market. China Pet Foods is the standout name in the coverage set, with online sales in both April and YTD far ahead of the industry; the valuation table shows it is the only Buy-rated name, and its 2027E PE and PEG are lower among the three companies.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses Meritco online data to track changes in Tmall, Douyin, and JD pet food GMV, volume, ASP, category, and brand share, and combines export data, raw material cost trends, and a DCF valuation framework to compare the growth, profitability expectations, and valuations of Gambol, China Pet Foods, and Petpal.

Methodology notes

• Sales trackingMeritco online GMV tracking

  Use e-commerce platform GMV, volume, ASP, and market share to measure performance in the pet food industry and for individual brands.

  The report covers the three major online channels of Tmall, Douyin, and JD, breaking out platform, category, and brand data to judge demand strength and changes in the competitive landscape.

• Valuation methodDCF

  Evaluate Gambol, CPF, and Petpal using a discounted cash flow method.

  UBS explains that it applies DCF valuation to the three companies and combines it with a 12-month investment horizon to derive ratings and target prices.

• Rating conventionFSR and 12-month target price

  FSR is the expected share price appreciation plus dividend yield over the next 12 months.

  The report discloses UBS's equity target price investment horizon as 12 months, and the rating system is linked to expected return.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Pet Foods (002891.SZ)

  Key positive coverage name in the report; rated Buy

  Strengths

  April online sales rose 29.2% YoY and YTD sales rose 45.0% YoY; Wanpy and Toptrees delivered strong growth and increased market share; the valuation table shows 2027E PE at 19.3x and PEG at 1.58, making it relatively attractive among the covered companies.

  Weaknesses

  Zeal fell 17.8% YoY in April, indicating pressure remains on some brands.

  Comparison

  Clearly outperformed the industry's April GMV growth of +1.1% YoY, and also beat Gambol and Petpal.

  Risks

  Intense domestic competition, delayed profit contribution due to higher investment, and FX losses from further RMB appreciation.

• Gambol (301498.SZ)

  Peer comparison name; rated Neutral

  Strengths

  YTD GMV grew 5.4% YoY, still maintaining some growth.

  Weaknesses

  April online sales fell 2.2% YoY; Fregate and Myfoodie fell 3.4% and 1.7% YoY, respectively, and market shares slipped slightly.

  Comparison

  Performance was weaker than CPF, and also weaker than the industry's YTD growth.

  Risks

  Domestic competition, slowing brand growth, expansion in investment, and exchange-rate volatility.

• Petpal (300673.SZ)

  Peer comparison name; rated Neutral

  Strengths

  The valuation table shows 2026E to 2027E PE and EV/EBITDA both declining.

  Weaknesses

  Core brand Meatyway fell 4.5% YoY in April and 17.5% YoY in Jan-April; its market share dropped to 0.5%; ROE is relatively low among the covered names.

  Comparison

  Growth performance was weaker than CPF and Gambol.

  Risks

  Continued decline in online sales, intensifying competition, weak profitability, and FX risk.

Key data

• April online pet food GMVRmb2,388mn, +1.1% YoYCovers Tmall, Douyin, and JD; volume rose 10.7% YoY, while ASP fell 8.7% YoY.
• YTD online GMVRmb9,685mn, +8.0% YoYTmall/JD/Douyin were 0%/+18%/+18% YoY, respectively.
• April platform performanceTmall -8.9%, JD +15.5%, Douyin +11.9%JD was the best performer among the major platforms, while Tmall significantly weighed on overall growth.
• April category performanceCat staple food +4.0%, dog staple food +2.6%, cat snacks -4.8%Cat staple food outperformed relatively, while cat snacks remained under pressure.
• Brand concentrationTop ten brands held a 40.0% shareRoyal Canin's share was 9.7%, up 2.6 percentage points YoY, and it remained the leader.
• China Pet Foods online salesApril +29.2% YoY, YTD +45.0% YoYWanpy +30.7% YoY, Toptrees +43.0% YoY, Zeal -17.8% YoY.
• Gambol online salesApril -2.2% YoY, YTD +5.4% YoYFregate -3.4% YoY, Myfoodie -1.7% YoY, and both market shares edged slightly lower.
• Petpal online salesMeatyway April -4.5% YoY, Jan-April -17.5% YoYMeatyway's market share declined 0.1 percentage points YoY to 0.5%.
• March pet food exportsUS$111mn, -12.7% YoYExports to the US were down 32.7% YoY; overall Q1 exports rose 6% YoY, and exports to the US fell 35% YoY.
• Raw material costsPet snack input costs were flat YoY and up 1.3% MoM; pet staple food costs were up 4.8% YoY and flat MoMStaple food costs were affected by soybean meal prices, which fell 11.2% YoY, but this was partially offset by corn +7.4% and beef +8.7%.

Impact & implications

Demand in the industry is not weakening across the board; instead, it is showing price pressure and channel divergence. The decline in ASP indicates that competitive or promotional pressure remains, and Tmall's weakness shows that traditional e-commerce is under pressure; JD and Douyin growth supports brands in increasing investment in high-growth channels. From an investment perspective, CPF's high growth, rising market share, and relatively better valuation make it more attractive within the sector, while Gambol and Petpal need to prove that core brand growth is recovering.

Risks

• Demand recovery is weaker or stronger than expected.
• Cost inflation or deflation affects profit margins.
• Changes in the industry competitive landscape.
• The effect of company reforms is lower or higher than expected.
• Changes in policy support.
• Intense domestic market competition leads to weaker-than-expected development.
• Significantly increased investment to gain market share, resulting in insufficient short-term profit contribution.
• Further RMB appreciation may increase FX losses.

What to watch

• Whether Tmall can return to growth, and whether JD and Douyin can sustain their high growth rates.
• Whether the decline in ASP narrows and volume growth can continue to offset price pressure.
• Whether CPF's Wanpy and Toptrees can continue to gain share, and whether Zeal can stabilize.
• Whether Gambol's Fregate and Myfoodie return to positive growth.
• Whether Petpal's core brand Meatyway can stop declining.
• Whether exports to the US recover from the sharp drop.
• The impact of soybean meal, corn, beef, and other raw material prices on staple food costs.