Seaborne Coal Arrivals Decline as Domestic Thermal Coal Prices Strengthen Week on Week

Overview

This week's report focuses on price trends and import arrivals in China's coal market. Domestic thermal coal prices generally rose, coking coal prices were mixed, and seaborne coal prices remained stable. The key development was a notable decline in coal arrivals at Chinese ports, indicating that coal imports may decrease month on month in August.

Core views

China's coal imports increased year on year in June and July, mainly supported by tight domestic supply, stronger electricity demand amid persistent high temperatures, and stable non-power demand from steel, chemicals, and other sectors. In August, relatively high coastal end-user inventories reduced the need for large-scale restocking, while Indonesia's domestic market obligation requirements continued to constrain export supply. Against this backdrop, arrivals declined and import momentum weakened.

Analysis framework

The analysis tracks weekly coal price indicators, mine-mouth prices, seaborne coal prices, and arrivals at Chinese ports, while incorporating end-user inventories, domestic supply, weather-driven power demand, and Indonesian export constraints to explain supply-demand changes.

Methodology notes

• Industry Supply-Demand TrackingWeekly Price and Arrival Monitoring

  Assessing the short-term coal market balance through domestic and international coal prices, port arrivals, inventories, and demand drivers.

  Rising prices and lower arrivals jointly indicate tighter short-term spot conditions or weaker import restocking, although high inventories may reduce incremental procurement demand from end users.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Thermal Coal Spot Market

  Directly Related

  Strengths

  Domestic thermal coal prices strengthened week on week, while lower arrivals may alleviate import supply pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Coastal end-user inventories remain high, limiting restocking demand.

  Comparison

  Domestic coal prices rose, while NEWC seaborne coal prices were flat week on week.

  Risks

  High inventories suppressing procurement, weaker-than-expected demand, and a recovery in import supply.

• Coking Coal Market

  Directly Related

  Strengths

  Some domestic coking coal prices rose, with the Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price performing strongly.

  Weaknesses

  Price divergence is pronounced, and Queensland coking coal prices declined.

  Comparison

  Some domestic indicators increased, whereas Queensland prices overseas declined week on week.

  Risks

  Weaker steel demand, changes in profitability in the coking sector, and overseas supply disruptions.

• China Coal Sector Equities

  Indirectly Related

  Strengths

  Stronger coal prices and lower imports may improve short-term market expectations for sector supply and demand.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide company earnings forecasts, target prices, or explicit stock rating changes.

  Comparison

  Industry-level spot data cannot directly substitute for company-specific fundamental analysis.

  Risks

  Coal price declines, policy changes, weaker-than-expected demand, and differences in company operations.

Key data

• Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg Thermal Coal PriceRMB730/tonneAs of 2026-08-14, up slightly week on week.
• BSPIRMB714/tonneBroadly unchanged week on week.
• CCI 5500RMB860/tonneUp 1.9% week on week.
• Shanxi Datong 5,800 kcal/kg Mine-Mouth PriceRMB732/tonneUp week on week.
• Liulin No. 4 Coking Coal Mine-Mouth PriceRMB900/tonneUp 4.7% week on week.
• Coking Coal FOR PriceRMB2,080/tonneUp week on week.
• Queensland Coking Coal PriceUS$222/tonneDown week on week.
• China Coal Port Arrivals4.2 million tonnesFor the week ended 2026-08-16, down 20.6% week on week and 21.2% year on year.

Impact & implications

In the short term, stronger domestic thermal coal prices and lower import arrivals provide some support to the coal spot market. At the same time, high coastal end-user inventories mean that the sustainability of demand-side restocking remains to be validated. Across the coal value chain, investors should monitor domestic supply disruptions, weather-driven changes in daily consumption, Indonesian export supply, and whether imports decline month on month as expected.

Risks

• Coastal end-user inventories exceed expectations, resulting in persistently weak restocking.
• High temperatures ease or electricity demand falls below expectations.
• An increase in domestic coal supply weakens support for spot prices.
• Indonesian export supply recovers faster than expected.
• Non-power demand from steel, chemicals, and other sectors weakens, weighing on coal demand.
• The divergence between domestic and international coal prices widens, affecting import arbitrage and trade flows.

What to watch

• China's August coal import data and subsequent changes in port arrivals.
• Coastal power plant and end-user inventories, daily consumption, and restocking pace.
• Weekly performance of Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg, CCI 5500, and mine-mouth coal prices.
• The actual extent to which Indonesia's domestic market obligation requirements constrain export supply.
• The strength of persistent high temperatures in driving electricity demand.
• Changes in demand from the steel and chemical industries and divergence in coking coal prices.