HSBC maintains Buy on Sunny Optical with a target price of HKD86.90

Overview

This report is a company research note by HSBC Qianhai Securities on Sunny Optical (2382.HK) following its 2026 Investor Day. The analysts attended the Investor Day held on June 24, 2026, with core focus on progress in optical communications, the AI+optics hardware portfolio, and the resilience of the traditional mobile and automotive optics businesses. The report maintains a Buy rating and a target price of HKD86.90.

Core views

The core view of the report is that Sunny Optical is expanding from a traditional consumer optics company into a diversified AI optics hardware platform. The optical communications business is expected to become a second growth curve beyond traditional consumer optics, while AI glasses, data collection devices, and embodied intelligence represent long-term growth directions for the next decade. Although recent business ramp-up challenges have caused the stock to fall about 20% since the Investor Day, the report believes this instead creates a good buying opportunity.

Analysis framework

Based on management information from the Investor Day, business progress, industry demand trends, and financial forecasts, the report uses a P/E valuation framework to assess upside potential in the share price. In the short term, it focuses on the pace of small-batch mass production in optical communications and the resilience of the traditional mobile optics business; in the medium to long term, it focuses on incremental market opportunities from AI glasses, automotive ADAS, LiDAR, and embodied intelligence.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods12-month forward P/E valuation

  Target P/E × 12-month forward EPS × exchange rate

  The report maintains a 12-month forward target P/E of 20x, applies it to 12-month forward EPS of RMB3.79, and uses an RMB-HKD exchange rate assumption of 1.15, deriving a target price of HKD86.90.

• Investment event analysisInvestor Day key takeaways tracking

  Assessing new growth curves from company strategy, product roadmap, and mass-production timetable

  The report breaks down disclosures from the 2026 Investor Day into optical communications, traditional mobile optics, automotive optics, and the AI+optics hardware portfolio, and evaluates their impact on medium- to long-term revenue potential and valuation.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Sunny Optical 2382.HK

  Core research target

  Strengths

  Its precision manufacturing capabilities can be leveraged into optical communications components; high-end smartphone lenses, periscope modules, and automotive cameras/LiDAR help support the traditional business; AI glasses and embodied intelligence provide a long-term growth narrative.

  Weaknesses

  In the short term, it is still affected by weak smartphone demand, rising storage costs, and uncertainty in ramping up new businesses.

  Comparison

  The report says Sunny Optical’s share price fell about 20% after the Investor Day, while the HSCEI fell about 2% over the same period, indicating a notable relative decline.

  Risks

  Shipment progress slower than expected, competition leading to price declines, rising raw material costs, and exchange-rate fluctuations.

Key data

• RatingBuyThe report maintains a Buy rating.
• Target priceHKD86.90Unchanged from the previous target price of HKD86.90.
• Current share priceHKD60.90As of the close on June 26, 2026.
• Implied upside+42.7%Calculated based on the target price and current share price.
• 12-month forward target P/E20xValuation multiple remains unchanged.
• 12-month forward EPSRMB3.79HSBC Qianhai forecast, unchanged.
• 2026e revenueRMB46,458mEquivalent to 7.5% year-on-year growth.
• 2027e revenueRMB52,213mEquivalent to 12.4% year-on-year growth.
• 2026e HSBC Qianhai EPSRMB3.67Diluted EPS forecast for 2026 disclosed in the table.
• 2027e HSBC Qianhai EPSRMB4.44Diluted EPS forecast for 2027 disclosed in the table.

Impact & implications

If optical communications enters small-batch mass production as planned in 2027 and gradually expands into higher-value segments such as optical engines and CPO, Sunny Optical’s business mix could shift from a cyclical mobile optics stock toward a growth-oriented hardware platform with stronger AI infrastructure characteristics. The recent share price pullback has increased the upside implied by the target price, but execution pace, competition, and cost factors remain key variables.

Risks

• Shipment volume growth slower than expected.
• Intensifying competition leads to price declines.
• Rising raw material costs erode profit margins.
• Foreign exchange fluctuations affect earnings and valuation translation.
• Mass production or commercialization of new businesses such as optical communications, AI glasses, and embodied intelligence may fall short of expectations.

What to watch

• Whether small-batch mass production of optical interconnects in 2027 progresses as planned.
• Whether the strategic investment in Aishun Optoelectronics can strengthen end-to-end optical module capabilities and DSP supply chain resources.
• Whether the share of high-end smartphone cameras rises as the company expects from 48.5% in 2026 to 55.0% in 2030.
• The contribution of higher penetration of automotive cameras, LiDAR, and ADAS to revenue and profit margins.
• Order intake and shipment pace for AI glasses, data collection devices, and embodied intelligence hardware.