China beauty's 6.18 recovery continues, with Mao Geping-H still the top pick

Overview

This report is a summary of J.P. Morgan's China beauty expert call held on June 23, 2026, focusing on changes in industry demand, platform price bands, brand rankings, and the competitive landscape after the end of the 6.18 shopping festival. Experts believe the beauty sector continued to outperform the broader e-commerce market during the promotion period, and the recovery trend remains intact; leading domestic brands held their core positions through brand strength and product strength, while international brands continued to recover with support from premium price bands, KOL livestreaming partnerships, bundles, and gift strategies.

Core views

The core views include: first, beauty GMV grew 11% year over year, outperforming overall GMV growth of 6%, meaning the sector remains on a recovery track; second, price bands diverged across platforms, with Tmall more driven by mid-to-high-end and premium consumption, while Douyin stood out in the Rmb300-500 range; third, leading domestic players have not been comprehensively squeezed out by international brands, as Mao Geping, Proya, Winona, and others still delivered solid growth or stable rankings; fourth, international brands improved their overall rankings, especially Skin Ceuticals, Estée Lauder, La Mer, and SK-II, which sustained momentum on Tmall and Douyin; fifth, the report favors Mao Geping-H, believing its positioning fits the experiential consumption trend.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on interpretations from the expert call, 6.18 platform GMV and brand ranking data, performance across different price bands, changes in Tmall and Douyin rankings, and comparative analysis of brand-side promotions, livestreaming, bundles, and gift strategies.

Methodology notes

• Industry tracking6.18 GMV and ranking review

  Judging the health of the beauty sector and brand competitiveness through major promotion GMV, platform rankings, and price band changes.

  The report compares GMV performance across Tmall, JD, PDD, Douyin, and Kuaishou during 5/13-6/18, and combines Tmall and Douyin Top 20 brand rankings to observe share changes between domestic and international brands.

• Channel analysisPlatform price band divergence

  Growth price bands differ across platforms, reflecting differences in consumer groups, content conversion, and brand strategies.

  On Tmall, GMV in the premium price band with ASP above Rmb800 grew more than 20%, while on Douyin, the Rmb300-500 price band grew about 25%, indicating divergence in demand structure and promotional tactics across platforms.

• Brand competitivenessValidation of brand strength and product strength

  Against the backdrop of international brands returning and domestic brands facing broad pressure, local brands that can maintain rankings and growth exhibit higher-quality growth characteristics.

  Leading domestic brands such as Mao Geping, Proya, and Winona still achieved growth or stable rankings, showing that brand equity, product mix, and channel execution can still support competitive advantages.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Mao Geping-H (1318.HK)

  Top pick in the report

  Strengths

  Overall GMV grew about 35%, and the new IP collaboration series was well received by consumers, with positioning aligned with the experiential consumption trend.

  Weaknesses

  It ranked 18th on Tmall and 14th on Douyin, with ranking positions still below some international premium brands and leading domestic players such as Proya.

  Comparison

  Its growth performance is ahead of most leading domestic brands, and the report names it as the top pick in China's beauty market.

  Risks

  Cooling demand for premium experiential consumption, rising promotional costs, and weaker-than-expected brand expansion execution.

• Proya (603605.SS)

  Leading domestic brand

  Strengths

  It maintained 3rd and 4th place on Tmall and Douyin, respectively, and the report says its GMV returned to positive growth.

  Weaknesses

  It faces competitive pressure from international premium brands reclaiming the top spots.

  Comparison

  Compared with sales declines in 2025, this major promotion showed a more positive recovery; among domestic brands, its ranking remained stably near the top.

  Risks

  Stronger promotions and KOL spending by international brands may compress its room for growth.

• Botanee / Winona

  Domestic skincare brand

  Strengths

  Winona's GMV on both Tmall and Douyin grew more than 20%, showing solid growth.

  Weaknesses

  It ranked 15th on Tmall and did not enter the top 20 on Douyin, so brand heat still needs continued validation.

  Comparison

  Compared with generally weaker domestic brands overall, Winona showed greater resilience.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in functional skincare and rising platform traffic costs.

• Chicmax / KANS

  Domestic mass-market brand

  Strengths

  Experts remain positive on its fundamentals, citing its multi-brand portfolio, rapid growth at Newpage, R&D capabilities, management team, and entrepreneurial culture.

  Weaknesses

  KANS was under pressure during the major promotion, with negative GMV growth on Douyin and a ranking decline from prior highs to 6th place.

  Comparison

  Compared with Mao Geping, Proya, and Winona, KANS is more visibly affected by its mass-market positioning and value-for-money strategy.

  Risks

  Intense competition in mass-market price bands, rising reliance on promotions, and continued decline in brand ranking.

• International beauty brands

  Industry competitors and barometer for premium consumption

  Strengths

  Skin Ceuticals and Estée Lauder returned to the top spots on Tmall and Douyin, respectively; La Mer and SK-II improved, and international brands gained more Top 10 positions.

  Weaknesses

  Experts believe the growth outlook for mass-market international brands such as L'Oréal Paris and Olay warrants caution.

  Comparison

  International premium brands have stronger momentum than mass-market international brands and improved overall in the rankings.

  Risks

  Domestic brands compete intensely in mass-market price bands, and reliance by international brands on promotions and gifts could compress profit margins.

Key data

• 6.18 beauty sector GMV growthYoY +11%The measurement period is 5/13-6/18, covering Tmall, JD, PDD, Douyin, and Kuaishou; source: Analysis.cn.
• 6.18 overall GMV growthYoY +6%The beauty sector outperformed the broader e-commerce market.
• Tmall premium price bandGMV growth of more than 20% for ASP>Rmb800Showing strong demand for mid-to-high-end and premium beauty on Tmall.
• Douyin core price bandRmb300-500 price band grew about 25%Showing that Douyin captured much of the growth in the mid-price segment.
• Mao Geping GMVabout +35%The report says it continues to lead growth among top domestic brands and names it as the top pick in China's beauty market.
• Winona GMVmore than 20% growth on both Tmall and DouyinWinona, under Botanee, achieved solid growth on both major platforms.
• International brands' Top 10 positionsTmall 9 spots, Douyin 6 spotsHigher than Tmall 8 spots and Douyin 5 spots during 2025 Double 11.
• Mao Geping-H rating and priceOW; HK$51.80; target price HK$130The price is the closing price on June 24, 2026; the target price comes from the historical investment recommendation table.

Impact & implications

The report has positive implications for China's beauty sector: major promotion data confirm that the recovery is still continuing, leading domestic brands have not materially lost ground amid the return of international brands, and the improved rankings of international premium brands also show resilience in premium consumption and gifting demand. From an investment perspective, the report prefers Mao Geping-H, which has experiential consumption positioning, strong brand equity, and relatively high-quality growth; it also notes that international brands in the mass market face fierce competition from domestic brands, and brand positioning and price band selection will affect the sustainability of future growth.

Risks

• Platform coupons, livestreaming coupons, and government subsidies have further deepened actual discounts, which may affect brand profit margins and pricing systems.
• The recovery in momentum among international brands may intensify competitive pressure on domestic brands, especially in premium and mid-to-high-end price bands.
• Competition among mass-market brands is intense, and L'Oréal Paris, Olay, and KANS may all face risks of slower growth or declining rankings.
• If KOL livestreaming partnerships and Douyin Mall growth slow, it may affect the sustained momentum of international brands over the next one to two years.
• Major promotion data may be affected by promotional timing, subsidy policies, and platform traffic allocation, and may not fully represent full-year trends.

What to watch

• Whether Mao Geping can sustain GMV growth in subsequent major promotions and non-promotion periods.
• Whether growth in Tmall's premium price band and Douyin's Rmb300-500 price band continues to diverge.
• Changes in international brands' positions within the Top 10 on Tmall and Douyin.
• Whether positive growth can continue for domestic brands such as Proya, Winona, Comfy, and Forest Cabin.
• Whether KANS can restore its Douyin ranking and GMV growth.
• Changes in actual discounts and profit margins after platform subsidies, livestreaming coupons, and government subsidies taper off.