HSBC maintains Akeso at Buy and raises the target price to HKD173

Overview

This is a company research report on Akeso published by HSBC Qianhai Securities. The report believes Akeso's 2025 results were broadly in line with market expectations, product sales maintained strong growth, and the market may be underestimating its commercialization capabilities. The company's core assets, AK112 and AK104, continue to drive revenue growth, and key clinical readouts in 2026 will be share-price catalysts.

Core views

The core views are as follows: first, 2025 product sales reached RMB3.0 billion, up 51% year over year, validating the company's commercialization capabilities; second, new AK112 and AK104 indications added to the NRDL may drive 2026 revenue growth of about 50%; third, key readouts from AK112 trials in first-line lung cancer and global H-3 will determine medium-term valuation elasticity; fourth, the company is expanding its platform from I/O 2.0 to an I/O 2.0+ADC combination, which may enhance the value of its R&D platform; fifth, although the valuation remains attractive, high market expectations for the H-6 readout may cause share-price volatility.

Analysis framework

The report updates Akeso's rating and target price by combining an earnings review, revisions to revenue and expense forecasts, tracking of clinical milestones, pipeline platform analysis, and DCF valuation.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  HSBC uses a DCF model to reflect Akeso's long-term growth. The HKD173 target price is based on an 8.4% WACC, a 4.25% risk-free rate, a 4.75% market risk premium, a one-year historical average beta of 0.94, a 4% perpetual growth rate, and a RMB/HKD exchange rate of 1.16 at end-2026.

• Rating systemHSBC stock rating framework

  Upside relative to the current share price

  Under HSBC's rating framework, stocks are typically classified as Buy when the target price is more than 20% above the current share price. This report's target price implies about 23% upside, so the Buy rating is maintained.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Akeso / 9926.HK

  research target company

  Strengths

  Rapid product sales growth, commercialization progress for the PD1 2.0 assets AK112 and AK104, and DCF valuation still imply about 23% upside.

  Weaknesses

  The 2025 net loss widened, with higher selling expenses and R&D expenses, leaving uncertainty over the timing of the profitability inflection point.

  Comparison

  The report believes the company has a leading position in PD1 2.0 and is expanding toward an I/O 2.0+ADC combination.

  Risks

  Failure of key clinical trials, weaker-than-expected overseas phase III efficacy, rising expenses, or weaker-than-expected commercialization could all weigh on valuation.

• AK112

  core PD1/VEGF asset

  Strengths

  It drove 2025 sales growth and has several key 2026 readouts, including HARMONi 6 OS, global H-3 PFS, and interim OS data.

  Weaknesses

  Market expectations for the first-line lung cancer readout are already high, and data below expectations would bring significant volatility.

  Comparison

  The report highlights AK112's competitive efficacy signals in first-line NSCLC and second-line EGFRm NSCLC.

  Risks

  A failure in the global phase III NSCLC trial or weaker-than-expected overseas phase III efficacy could hurt sales and valuation forecasts.

• AK104

  core PD1/CTLA4 asset

  Strengths

  Together with AK112, it drove product sales growth, and new indications added to the NRDL may support 2026 revenue.

  Weaknesses

  It still relies on sustained volume growth from indication expansion and reimbursement access.

  Comparison

  The report notes that AK104 has shown better efficacy than standard therapy in first-line cervical cancer and gastric cancer.

  Risks

  A deterioration in the domestic competitive landscape or delays in indication launches could affect sales performance.

Key data

• Report date2026-04-08The report was published on April 8, 2026.
• 2025 product salesRMB3.0bnUp 51% year over year, driven mainly by AK112 and AK104.
• 2025 net lossRMB1.1bnCompared with RMB0.5bn in 2024, the wider loss mainly came from sales team expansion and higher R&D spending.
• Expected 2026 revenue growthabout 50%Mainly driven by new AK112 and AK104 indications being added to the NRDL and the inclusion of the immunology pipeline in the NRDL.
• Target priceHKD173.00The previous target price was HKD169.00.
• Current share priceHKD140.50This implies about 23.1% upside to the target price.
• Valuation assumptionsWACC 8.4%, perpetual growth rate 4%The DCF model also uses a 4.25% risk-free rate, a 4.75% market risk premium, and a beta of 0.94.

Impact & implications

The investment implication for Akeso is constructive: commercialization ramp-up and clinical readouts can continue to support valuation expansion, especially AK112's key lung cancer data. However, because the stock has already risen year to date and market expectations for the H-6 data are high, the near-term catalyst may come with greater volatility.

Risks

• AK112's failure in the global phase III NSCLC trial could hurt sales and valuation forecasts.
• Weaker-than-expected efficacy in overseas phase III trials could affect AK112's sales growth in China and overseas markets.
• Delays or failures of other late-stage assets could weigh on sales in the near term.
• A slower-than-expected path to breakeven, or faster-than-expected expense growth, could pressure cash flow.
• A worsening competitive landscape for domestic PD(L)1 bispecific assets could affect sales performance.
• High market expectations for the first-line lung cancer readout could amplify share-price volatility if the results fall short.

What to watch

• AK112 China phase III HARMONi 6 overall survival data.
• AK112 global H-3 progression-free survival and interim OS data.
• Sales ramp-up and approval progress for AK112 in more solid-tumor indications in China.
• AK112 overseas clinical readouts and the launch timing of more phase III trials.
• Business development progress for AK112 and AK104.
• Sales delivery after AK112, AK104, and the immunology pipeline are added to the NRDL.
• The impact of sales and R&D expense growth on losses, cash flow, and the breakeven timeline.