J.P. Morgan raises ASMPT target price to HK$175, optimistic on advanced packaging, HBM TCB, and CPO expansion

Overview

This is a company research and rating change report from J.P. Morgan on ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK). The core conclusion is that ASMPT's SEMI and SMT businesses are recovering strongly, its advanced packaging portfolio continues to expand, and 3DSoIC, HBM TCB, Logic TCB, and CPO die attach provide short- to mid-term upside, therefore J.P. Morgan maintains an Overweight rating and raises the Dec-26 target price to HK$175.

Core views

The report is optimistic on ASMPT for several reasons: first, 1Q26 results and 2Q26 guidance significantly exceeded expectations, with strong order momentum and record SMT bookings; second, even though memory TCB orders are temporarily weak, SEMI and SMT revenue as well as SEMI gross margin remain strong; third, HBM4, HBM4E, potential relaxation of JEDEC stacking height standards, qualification of Fluxless TCB in TSMC's CoW process, and CPO die attach could all extend the growth curve; fourth, if progress is made on the sale of the SMT business, the company may become more focused on advanced packaging and gain financial support.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes ASMPT's earnings elasticity, valuation re-rating, and key catalysts through a combination of earnings review, 2Q26 company guidance, J.P. Morgan earnings forecast revisions, industry channel checks, views on HBM/SoIC/CPO technology roadmaps, 12-month forward P/E valuation, and historical P/E and P/B ranges.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods12-month forward P/E

  Target price is based on about 27x 12-month forward EPS

  J.P. Morgan raised the valuation multiple by 3 notches to reflect new medium-term opportunities such as Logic TCB for CoW and CPO die attach, and accordingly derived the Dec-26 target price of HK$175.

• Earnings ForecastEPS revision

  FY26E/FY27E EPS raised by 35%/21%, respectively

  The forecast increase is driven by the 1Q26 upside surprise, strong 2Q26 guidance, SEMI and SMT recovery, advanced packaging expansion, and higher medium-term growth assumptions.

• Catalyst AnalysisTechnology roadmap and order inflection points

  HBM4, HBM4E, JEDEC height standards, 3DSoIC, and CPO

  The report views the recovery of SK hynix HBM4 orders, HBM4E qualification, relaxation of HBM stacking height standards, TSMC SoIC expansion, and growth in CPO die attach demand as key share-price catalysts over the next few quarters.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK)

  Core covered name; J.P. Morgan maintains Overweight and raises target price

  Strengths

  Strong advanced packaging portfolio, rapid growth in Photonics revenue, and a leading position in pluggable transceivers die-attach; HBM TCB, Logic TCB, and CPO all provide growth optionality.

  Weaknesses

  Memory TCB orders are temporarily weak due to SK hynix HBM4 logic base die redesign; some long-term opportunities still depend on qualification, customer adoption, and changes in technical standards.

  Comparison

  The report believes ASMPT could have a 30-40% share in HBM4 TCB tools and compete with Hanmi and Hanwha; if competitors lag in the transition to Fluxless TCB, the competitive landscape may narrow.

  Risks

  A weaker-than-expected macro environment could affect the sustainability of mainstream semis recovery; delays in resolving HBM4 issues, relaxing JEDEC standards, SoIC adoption, and CPO ramp-up would weaken catalyst realization.

Key data

• Current share priceHK$152.20Price date is 2026-04-22.
• Target priceHK$175.00Dec-26 target price; previous target price was HK$130.00.
• Implied upsideApproximately 15.0%Estimated based on the HK$175 target price and HK$152.20 current price.
• FY26E EPS revisionRaised from HK$3.21 to HK$4.34, an increase of 35.5%From the report's Key Changes table.
• FY27E EPS revisionRaised from HK$5.34 to HK$6.47, an increase of 21.1%From the report's Key Changes table.
• 2026 revenue growth expectationAbout 30-40%Driven by continued advanced packaging growth and recovery in Mainstream SEMI and SMT.
• 1Q26 earnings beat magnitude39% above JPME and 55% above Bloomberg consensusMainly driven by SEMI and SMT revenue and improved SEMI gross margin.
• Expected ASMPT share in HBM4 TCB tools30-40%The report expects ASMPT to share this market with Hanmi and Hanwha.
• CPO-related TAM expansionCould expand by 2-3x over the next two to three yearsDriven by steps such as PIC attach, micro-lens attach, and Optical Engine attach.

Impact & implications

If the report's view plays out, ASMPT's investment thesis could evolve from a cyclical SEMI/SMT recovery into structural growth as an advanced packaging equipment platform. Recovery in HBM4 and HBM4E orders could support near- to medium-term earnings, opportunities in Logic TCB within 3DSoIC and CoW steps may contribute greater upside in 2H27 and 2028, while CPO and silicon photonics migration expand the long-term die-attach market opportunity. A potential sale of the SMT business could also improve business focus and capital allocation capabilities.

Risks

• A weaker macro environment in 2026 could affect the sustainability of mainstream semis recovery.
• If SK hynix HBM4 logic base die issues are not resolved as expected, recovery in memory TCB orders could be delayed.
• If JEDEC HBM stack height standards are not relaxed, the room for TCB expansion into 20-24Hi HBM stacks may be limited.
• Qualification or customer adoption progress for Fluxless TCB, the SoIC CoW process, and CPO die attach may fall short of expectations.
• If the sale of the SMT business is delayed or valuation is unsatisfactory, it could weaken the rationale for the company to focus on advanced packaging and expand investment capacity.

What to watch

• Whether 2Q26 results deliver and whether order bookings remain strong.
• Progress on SK hynix Rubin HBM4 logic base die redesign, and whether HBM4 TCB orders begin in 2H26.
• Qualification progress of HBM4E 16Hi Fluxless TCB with major DRAM makers.
• Whether JEDEC will relax the HBM stack height standard from 775um to 850-900um.
• TSMC SoIC capacity expansion and adoption of Fluxless TCB solutions in the CoW process, especially growth signals in 2H27 and 2028.
• Changes in die-attach demand related to CPO, Silicon Photonics, and 800G/1.6T pluggable transceivers.
• Progress on the sale of ASMPT's SMT solutions business and potential use of proceeds.