China's new energy heavy truck roadmap lifts battery demand, with CATL as the biggest beneficiary

Overview

This report focuses on the electrification of heavy trucks in China. On June 12, 2026, China released an implementation plan for promoting new energy heavy trucks, forming a national-level roadmap for the first time, with targets by 2030 of achieving 40% sales penetration for new energy heavy trucks, more than 1.6 million new energy heavy trucks in operation, about 3,000 heavy truck charging and battery swapping stations, and 30,000 kilometers of zero-carbon freight corridors. J.P. Morgan believes this target is not aggressive, and given China's history of exceeding policy targets for new energy vehicles and renewable energy, 40% is more likely a floor than a ceiling.

Core views

The core view is that heavy truck electrification is moving from the demonstration stage into a systematic, scaled commercialization stage. Policy support, energy replenishment infrastructure buildout, battery technology progress, LNG price volatility, and the TCO advantage of EV heavy trucks are jointly driving higher penetration. The report expects China's new energy penetration in heavy trucks to reach about 50% by 2030, with commercial vehicle battery demand reaching about 380GWh and accounting for more than 30% of China's total EV battery demand. CATL, with its roughly 50% heavy truck battery market share, long-range technology, Tianxing platform, and Qiji battery-swapping network, is seen as the biggest beneficiary; Sinotruk, as a leading EV heavy truck OEM, also benefits, while CALB gains share and EVE Energy has relatively high exposure to commercial vehicle battery sales.

Analysis framework

The report cross-validates across dimensions including policy targets, heavy truck fleet size and replacement demand, penetration path, battery capacity and range upgrades, subsidy and purchase tax policies, LNG versus electricity price comparison, EV/LNG/diesel heavy truck TCO, battery-swapping business models, infrastructure construction, and supply chain market shares, and maps these factors to the degree of benefit for battery makers, vehicle manufacturers, and battery-swapping networks.

Methodology notes

• Policy and penetration scenario analysis2030 new energy heavy truck roadmap analysis

  Using the official benchmarks of 40% new energy heavy truck penetration, 1.6 million vehicles in operation, 3,000 charging and battery swapping stations, and 30,000 kilometers of zero-carbon corridors, combined with China's historical tendency to exceed policy targets, to make an upward revision judgment.

  The report believes the official target provides a clear policy floor; if battery technology, infrastructure, and fuel economics continue to improve, actual penetration could reach about 50%.

• Cost analysisTCO full life-cycle cost comparison

  Comparing the purchase cost, energy cost, maintenance cost, subsidies, purchase tax, and payload loss caused by battery weight for EV, LNG, and diesel heavy trucks.

  Under the current LNG price and subsidy environment, EV heavy trucks can reach TCO parity with LNG heavy trucks in about three years; even without subsidies and with LNG staying at current spot prices, parity can still be achieved in about five years.

• Energy price sensitivityComparison of LNG prices and electricity price stability

  Comparing the impact of LNG retail prices rising from about Rmb4.2/kg in 2025 to about Rmb6.2/kg in June 2026 with relatively stable electricity prices.

  Rising LNG prices weaken the economics of LNG heavy trucks, making fleets place greater importance on the operating cost certainty and profit stability of EV heavy trucks.

• Infrastructure and business modelHeavy truck battery-swapping network assessment

  Assessing BaaS, battery-swapping time, single-station service capacity, vehicle utilization improvement, and CATL's Qiji network expansion plan.

  Battery swapping can reduce initial vehicle purchase costs by about 40%-50% and improve utilization in high-frequency logistics scenarios through roughly 5-minute energy replenishment, making it an important condition for heavy truck electrification to move from closed scenarios to long-haul logistics.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CATL

  Biggest beneficiary and top pick

  Strengths

  Roughly 50% share of China's heavy truck battery market; the Tianxing platform addresses pain points in range, charging speed, and battery degradation, while the Qiji battery-swapping network strengthens infrastructure and ecosystem advantages.

  Weaknesses

  Requires continued capital investment to build out the battery-swapping network, while facing battery price competition and cyclical fluctuations in heavy truck demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with second-tier battery makers, CATL leads in technology, scale, customer coverage, and long-range solutions.

  Risks

  A decline in LNG prices, slower-than-expected policy execution, insufficient battery-swapping station utilization, or intensified battery competition could compress returns.

• Sinotruk

  Leading EV heavy truck OEM beneficiary

  Strengths

  As a leading EV HDT OEM, it benefits from rising heavy truck electrification penetration and the release of replacement demand.

  Weaknesses

  The EV heavy truck OEM market remains highly fragmented, and the competitive landscape is not yet solidified.

  Comparison

  The benefit elasticity for vehicle makers depends on model lineup, channel coverage, and operating scenario coverage, making it less certain than for battery leaders.

  Risks

  Price competition, volatility in logistics demand, supply chain costs, and subsidy withdrawal could affect profitability.

• CALB

  Second-tier battery maker gaining share

  Strengths

  Its heavy truck battery market share rose from 5% in 2025 to 10% year-to-date, and the report rates it OW.

  Weaknesses

  Its overall market share and technology influence remain below CATL.

  Comparison

  Compared with CATL, CALB is more a market-share-gain story; compared with other second-tier makers, its heavy truck share improvement is more pronounced.

  Risks

  Sustainability of market share gains, price competition, and customer concentration risk.

• EVE Energy

  Second-tier battery maker with exposure to commercial vehicle battery sales

  Strengths

  Among second-tier battery makers, it has relatively high exposure to commercial vehicle battery sales.

  Weaknesses

  The report rates it N and does not identify it as an optimal beneficiary.

  Comparison

  Compared with CALB, the report emphasizes its sales exposure rather than rapid market share gains.

  Risks

  Delivery of commercial vehicle battery demand, gross margin, and changes in the competitive landscape.

• LNG heavy trucks and diesel heavy trucks

  Relatively pressured alternative technology routes

  Strengths

  Diesel has long range and mature energy replenishment infrastructure, while LNG can regain some operating cost advantage in a low gas price environment.

  Weaknesses

  Current LNG price increases weaken its economics, while diesel heavy trucks have the highest energy and maintenance costs.

  Comparison

  At current prices, EV heavy trucks have significantly lower operating costs per 100 km than LNG and diesel; under low LNG price scenarios, EV's relative advantage would weaken.

  Risks

  If LNG prices fall back to around the 2025 average, LNG heavy trucks could once again become strongly cost-competitive.

• Heavy truck charging and battery swapping infrastructure

  Key enabling asset for higher penetration

  Strengths

  Policy targets are clear, and battery swapping can reduce initial vehicle purchase costs and improve vehicle utilization.

  Weaknesses

  The current HDT battery-swapping network is still at an early stage, and station density, standardization, and utilization still need to be validated.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure charging, battery swapping is better suited to high-frequency, fixed-route, and long-haul logistics scenarios.

  Risks

  Construction progress, financing capability, standards compatibility, and actual throughput may come in below expectations.

Key data

• Official 2030 new energy heavy truck target40% penetration, more than 1.6 million vehicles in operationEquivalent to about 20% of China's heavy truck fleet; the report believes this target is more like a floor than a ceiling.
• Infrastructure targetsAbout 3,000 heavy truck charging and battery swapping stations, and 30,000 kilometers of zero-carbon freight corridorsHelps new energy heavy trucks expand from closed scenarios such as mines, ports, and industrial parks into long-haul logistics.
• Electrification target for short-haul freight in key regionsMore than 80%Applicable to fixed-route short-haul freight scenarios in regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Fenwei Plain.
• J.P. Morgan 2030 penetration forecastAbout 50% new energy heavy truck penetrationAbove the official 40% target, based on policy, technology, infrastructure, and LNG price uncertainty.
• China commercial vehicle battery demand forecastAbout 380GWh in 2030, with a CAGR of more than 20% from 2022 to 2030The report compares this with roughly 7% CAGR for passenger vehicle battery demand and believes commercial vehicles will grow structurally faster.
• Commercial vehicle battery demand shareMore than 30% of China's total EV battery demand by 2030Below 20% in 2025, with heavy trucks becoming a key source of incremental demand.
• Current new energy heavy truck penetration trend11% in 2024, 25% in 2025, 29% year-to-date in 2026, and close to 40% in May 2026Shows the market is already approaching the official 2030 target level.
• Battery capacity mixSales share of battery packs above 500kWh rose from 19% in 2025 to 31% in 4M26Fleet operators increasingly prefer high-capacity batteries to support longer range and broader applications.
• Share of long-range modelsSales share of models with over 500km range rose from 6% to 12%Acceptance of EV heavy trucks is rising in long-haul and high-utilization scenarios.
• Change in LNG pricesAbout Rmb6.2/kg in June 2026, up 48% from about Rmb4.2/kg in 2025Higher LNG prices significantly narrow the energy cost advantage of LNG heavy trucks.
• Operating cost per 100 kmEV heavy trucks about Rmb128, LNG heavy trucks about Rmb217, diesel heavy trucks about Rmb287Under current energy prices, EV heavy trucks have the lowest operating cost.
• Subsidy differentialUp to Rmb140,000 for new energy heavy trucks, up to Rmb110,000 for LNG heavy trucksThe roughly Rmb30,000 per-vehicle subsidy gap continues to support adoption of EV heavy trucks.
• CATL heavy truck battery shareAbout 50%The report believes CATL is the biggest beneficiary of the new energy heavy truck plan.
• CALB share changeFrom 5% in 2025 to 10% year-to-dateAmong second-tier battery makers, CALB has achieved meaningful market share gains in the heavy truck battery market.
• CATL Qiji battery-swapping network305 heavy truck battery-swapping stations by end-2025, with plans for 900 by end-2026CATL's long-term plan is to build a green freight corridor network covering 180,000 kilometers by 2030.
• Qiji battery-swapping station operating parametersEach standard battery pack is 171kWh, each battery swap takes about 5 minutes, and each station can serve up to 7 heavy trucks per hourEach station can store up to 24 battery packs, and batteries can be fully charged in about 1 hour, supporting high-frequency logistics operations.

Impact & implications

For investment, new energy heavy trucks could become a new growth curve for China's power battery demand and ease market concerns about slowing passenger NEV growth. The order of beneficiaries is skewed toward battery leaders with high market share, technological leadership, and battery-swapping network deployment, followed by leading EV heavy truck OEMs and second-tier battery makers gaining share. If LNG prices remain elevated and energy replenishment networks expand as planned, the TCO advantage and penetration gains of EV heavy trucks will become more visible; if LNG prices fall back or demand elasticity proves insufficient after subsidy withdrawal, the pace of adoption may slow in the short term.

Risks

• If LNG prices fall back to around the 2025 level of Rmb4.2/kg, the cost competitiveness of EV heavy trucks relative to LNG heavy trucks would weaken significantly.
• The current trade-in subsidy program is expected to expire by end-2026, and the purchase tax exemption for new energy commercial vehicles is expected to expire by end-2027; policy withdrawal could affect short-term demand.
• If construction of the 3,000 heavy truck charging and battery swapping stations and 30,000 kilometers of zero-carbon freight corridors is slower than expected, expansion into long-haul logistics scenarios will be constrained.
• EV heavy trucks still face payload loss due to battery weight; if high-utilization scenarios are insufficient, the TCO advantage may not be obvious.
• Battery maker price competition, market share volatility, and customer concentration may affect earnings realization for CATL, CALB, EVE Energy, and others.
• Weak macro consumption and freight demand could suppress heavy truck replacement demand and weaken the sales elasticity created by policy and economic improvements.
• Battery-swapping network utilization, standards compatibility, financing support, and operating and maintenance capabilities still need to be validated.

What to watch

• Local implementation rules, funding support, and station construction progress for the 2026-2030 new energy heavy truck roadmap.
• Monthly penetration changes in new energy heavy trucks, LNG heavy trucks, and diesel heavy trucks, especially whether EV penetration continues to approach or exceed 40%.
• Trends in LNG retail prices, electricity prices, and diesel prices, and the resulting changes in TCO sensitivity.
• Whether the sales share of battery packs above 500kWh and models with over 500km range continues to increase.
• The expansion progress of CATL's Qiji battery-swapping stations from 305 to 900, as well as execution of the 2030 plan for 180,000 kilometers of green freight corridors.
• Changes in market share, pricing, and gross margin for battery makers such as CATL, CALB, and EVE Energy in the heavy truck battery market.
• Whether European commercial vehicle decarbonization policies create a second growth market for China's heavy truck electrification supply chain.