WinWay Technology Co Ltd: Rising AI chip complexity drives demand for test interfaces

Overview

This report is Morgan Stanley's post-conference feedback on WinWay Technology Co Ltd following Asia AI Summit 2026. The core content focuses on how rising AI and high-performance chip complexity is driving test interface demand, including larger package sizes, higher socket pin counts, and incremental demand from additional testing steps such as functional burn-in and SLT.

Core views

The report believes that longer testing time and rising chip complexity will continue to push up demand for test interfaces. WinWay Technology Co Ltd had not previously focused on burn-in sockets, but management plans to enter the high-end market after future capacity expansion to avoid price competition in the low-end market. On capacity, Renwu Facility 1 and Renwu Facility 2 will be the main support for pogo pin expansion.

Analysis framework

The analysis mainly combines conference feedback, management capacity planning, demand drivers for test interfaces, and valuation model assumptions. The report uses package size, pin count, and the adoption pace of SLT and burn-in as demand observation indicators, and evaluates long-term value using a residual income model.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsResidual income model

  Estimate long-term value using cost of equity, payout ratio, mid-term growth rate, and terminal growth rate.

  The report states that the target price is derived from a residual income model, assuming a cost of equity of 9.14%, including a risk-free rate of 2.0% and an equity risk premium of 5.5%, with a payout ratio of 80%, a mid-term growth rate of 16.4%, and a terminal growth rate of 4.5%.

• Data conventionMorgan Stanley ModelWare

  The report's financial metrics are based on the Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework by default.

  The table notes indicate that, unless otherwise specified, all metrics are based on the Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework; consensus data comes from Refinitiv Estimates.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• WinWay Technology Co Ltd (6515.TW / 6515 TT)

  The company covered in the report, affected by demand for AI chip test interfaces.

  Strengths

  Demand for test interfaces is driven by larger package sizes, higher pin counts, and the adoption of SLT and burn-in; the company has clear targets for pogo pin capacity expansion and self-sufficiency improvement.

  Weaknesses

  High-end burn-in sockets have not been a past focus for the company, and entry into the high-end market still requires execution validation; capacity expansion may bring depreciation pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with price competition in low-end burn-in sockets, the company plans to shift toward the high-end niche market to improve the quality of competition.

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected adoption of hypersockets and MEMS probe cards, slower-than-expected adoption of SLT and burn-in sockets, or no edge AI demand over the next several years.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-01The cover page time is June 1, 2026 12:23 AM GMT.
• Company and tickerWinWay Technology Co Ltd；6515.TW / 6515 TTThe report covers a Taiwan, China semiconductor test interface-related company.
• Socket pin countIncreased from 4-6k to more than 10kThe report believes that larger package sizes and more complex chips are driving up demand for test interfaces.
• pogo pin capacity target9 million units per month by the end of 2026; 14 million units per month in the first half of 2027Mainly from Renwu Facility 1, with Renwu Facility 2 expected to commence operations in the second quarter of 2027.
• pogo pin self-sufficiency ratioCurrently about 35-45%; long-term target 50-60%The report believes that improving self-sufficiency may offset incremental depreciation pressure.
• Target price history12000 on 2026-04-17; 15000 on 2026-05-27The currency is not explicitly disclosed in the input text.
• Valuation assumptionsCost of equity 9.14%; payout ratio 80%; mid-term growth rate 16.4%; terminal growth rate 4.5%Derived from the residual income model.

Impact & implications

If the trend of increasing AI-related chip complexity and testing steps continues, WinWay Technology Co Ltd's test socket, pogo pin, and high-end burn-in socket businesses may benefit. The key investment implication is whether the company can expand capacity as planned, improve self-sufficiency, and achieve sufficient adoption in the high-end test interface market.

Risks

• Adoption of hypersockets and MEMS probe cards is slower than expected.
• Adoption of SLT and burn-in sockets is slower than expected.
• Edge AI demand over the next several years may fail to emerge or come in below expectations.
• Price competition in the low-end burn-in socket market may suppress profitability.
• There are execution risks around the Renwu capacity ramp-up, improved self-sufficiency, and offsetting depreciation.
• Morgan Stanley discloses that it may have business relationships with the covered company, and investors should use this research as only one factor in investment decisions.

What to watch

• Whether the number of pins per socket continues to rise and remains above the 10k trend.
• Whether Renwu Facility 1 achieves pogo pin capacity targets by the end of 2026 and in the first half of 2027.
• Whether Renwu Facility 2 commences operations as planned in the second quarter of 2027.
• Whether pogo pin self-sufficiency can rise from 35-45% to the long-term target of 50-60%.
• The customer adoption pace for high-end burn-in sockets, SLT, hypersockets, and MEMS probe cards.
• Whether edge AI demand forms a new incremental driver.
• Whether subsequent reports explicitly update the rating, target price currency, current share price, and expected upside.