16th Streaming Survey: More Services, More Viewing Time, Sticky Leadership of Top Platforms Continues to Strengthen

Overview

This report is based on Morgan Stanley's 16th AlphaWise U.S. streaming consumer survey and examines trends in video, streaming, live sports, and ad-supported subscriptions against the backdrop of artificial intelligence and the entertainment industry. The core conclusion is that the U.S. streaming ecosystem has not clearly saturated; instead, it is showing structural expansion characterized by "more services, more viewing time, and more ad-tier adoption." Leading platforms continue to widen their advantage through distribution scale, content quality, bundling capability, and user stickiness.

Core views

First, scale remains the core of streaming competition, with Amazon Prime Video, Netflix, and YouTube leading in user penetration and share of viewing. Second, although Netflix faces investor concerns about slowing engagement, AI positioning, margins, and M&A discounting, the survey shows its net retention, perceived original content quality, user attention, and pricing power remain strong. Third, ad-tier subscriptions continue to grow, with Netflix ad-tier penetration rising from 22% to 26%, while the ad-free tier remains around 30%, indicating that the ad tier is bringing more incremental users and monetization opportunities. Fourth, live sports continues migrating to streaming, but ESPN remains the strongest sports gateway, while Amazon is also improving, driven by content such as NFL/TNF. Fifth, short-form video platforms are competing for traditional TV viewing time, with META's Instagram/Facebook Reels and TikTok showing the most significant year-over-year engagement gains. Sixth, if HBO Max and Paramount+ were combined into a unified service, it could enhance PSKY's competitiveness, though the survey may overestimate future subscription intent.

Analysis framework

The report uses consumer questionnaires, platform usage rates, cancellation intentions, attention index, intentionality index, price sensitivity tests, directional churn proxies from credit card panel data, and cross-platform comparisons to assess streaming-service penetration, stickiness, content quality, subscription mix, sports viewing, and the impact of potential platform consolidation.

Methodology notes

• Consumer SurveyAlphaWise streaming survey

  A sample of about 3,000 U.S. consumers

  Tracks changes in U.S. consumer usage and preferences for video streaming, pay TV, vMVPD, live sports, and ad-tier subscriptions through an annual survey.

• User Stickiness AssessmentNet retention score

  The difference between last to cancel and first to cancel

  Respondents are asked which services they would cancel first and cancel last if forced to choose; a larger spread indicates a platform is less replaceable. Netflix, YouTube Premium, and Amazon Prime Video rank near the top.

• Engagement Quality AssessmentAttention index and intentionality index

  Primary-attention viewing and opening a platform with intent

  The report compares whether users are attentive while watching and whether they open a platform looking for a specific show, movie, or video. Netflix, Apple TV+, and HBO Max skew more intentional and high-attention; YouTube, Peacock, and Disney+ skew more toward browsing or background entertainment.

• Pricing and Churn AssessmentPrice sensitivity testing and credit card panel proxy

  Netflix pricing power and directional churn

  The report believes Netflix's current standard ad-free plan at about $20/month is still viewed by most users as offering value and may still have some pricing room before exceeding $30/month; credit card panel churn data is only used as a directional reference and is affected by sample composition, payment card switching, and billing timing.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Netflix / NFLX

  Core beneficiary; report maintains Overweight

  Strengths

  Strongest net retention, improved perception of original content, high user attention and intentionality, current pricing still seen as valuable, and rising ad-tier adoption.

  Weaknesses

  Investors are concerned about engagement growth, a recent lack of breakout content, slower margin expansion, uncertain AI positioning, seasonal churn, and M&A discounting.

  Comparison

  Leads most platforms in original content, content breadth, user retention, and high-quality engagement.

  Risks

  If content supply underperforms expectations, price hikes trigger higher churn, or AI and UGC platforms erode user time spent, valuation recovery may be limited.

• Amazon Prime Video / AMZN

  Significant advantages in scaled distribution and bundling

  Strengths

  Ranks first with 66% usage, Prime membership bundling increases stickiness, and sports content is helping Prime Video improve in live sports.

  Weaknesses

  Part of subscription motivation comes from bundling rather than active content choice, which may result in lower engagement quality and content intentionality than Netflix.

  Comparison

  Penetration is higher than Netflix and YouTube, but active content mindshare may not be equally strong.

  Risks

  If a combined HBO Max/Paramount+ service attracts substitution, Amazon Prime Video could be one of the potential share donors.

• YouTube / GOOGL

  Leading video platform and vMVPD winner

  Strengths

  YouTube's free service has 47% usage, YouTube TV leads in vMVPD, and the UGC plus long-/short-form video ecosystem reinforces viewing time.

  Weaknesses

  The platform skews more toward browsing and background entertainment, and some engagement-quality and intentional-viewing metrics may trail Netflix.

  Comparison

  Has advantages in free online video and vMVPD, making it an important platform competing with traditional SVOD for user viewing time.

  Risks

  Ad-market conditions, content regulation, changes in the creator ecosystem, and sports-rights costs may affect growth quality.

• Disney / ESPN / DIS

  Beneficiary of live sports and family entertainment; report maintains Overweight

  Strengths

  ESPN remains the top gateway for sports viewing, Disney+ and Hulu posted year-over-year engagement gains, and live sports remains a high-value content category.

  Weaknesses

  Disney+ in some scenarios is more family- or children-driven, so the attention index may be affected by viewing context.

  Comparison

  ESPN leads Prime Video and Netflix in sports, while Disney+/Hulu still has scale in the streaming ecosystem.

  Risks

  Sports-rights costs, the decline of traditional pay TV, and streaming margin pressure still need monitoring.

• PSKY / Paramount+ / HBO Max / WBD

  Potential combined service is tied to the PSKY Overweight thesis; WBD is Equal-weight

  Strengths

  Paramount+ and HBO Max perform well in favorite-TV-show metrics, and a combined service could create a fuller content library and stronger subscription intent.

  Weaknesses

  Future subscription intent in the survey may overstate actual conversion, while pricing points, integration execution, and the profit model remain uncertain.

  Comparison

  A combined service could compete for some subscription share from platforms such as Amazon Prime Video, Netflix, and Hulu.

  Risks

  Failed integration, poor pricing, insufficient content overlap, or actual user conversion below survey intent.

• META Platforms / META

  Competitor for short-form entertainment viewing time

  Strengths

  Instagram Reels and Facebook Reels showed the most significant year-over-year improvement in entertainment engagement, indicating META is gaining traction in video entertainment.

  Weaknesses

  The report mainly observes user engagement and does not provide a standalone rating conclusion on META's overall earnings or valuation.

  Comparison

  Reels and TikTok together are pushing social platforms to compete for TV and long-form video viewing time.

  Risks

  Short-video regulation, content quality, ad load, and competition for user time with long-form video platforms all warrant attention.

• Starz / AMC+ / AMCX / STRZ

  Relatively weaker platforms; STRZ is Equal-weight, AMCX is Underweight

  Strengths

  Specific content libraries may still serve niche users.

  Weaknesses

  Starz and AMC+ rank near the bottom in self-reported usage and net retention scores.

  Comparison

  Compared with leading platforms such as Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, YouTube, and Disney, they are weaker in scale, stickiness, and replacement barriers.

  Risks

  User churn, insufficient content investment, and platform integration pressure may continue to weigh on performance.

Key data

• Survey sampleAbout 3,000 U.S. consumersUsed for the 16th annual AlphaWise streaming survey.
• Average number of streaming services5.4Including both free and paid services, up from about 4.9 to 5.0 last year.
• Average number of paid streaming subscriptions3.2Up from 3.1 in 2025.
• Average daily viewing timeAbout 3 hoursIncluding TV, movies, and online video, with older groups watching more.
• Usage rates of leading platformsAmazon Prime Video 66%; Netflix 55%; YouTube 47%These three remain the major streaming platforms, and their penetration increased year over year.
• Perceived Netflix original content quality31%, up 360 basis points year over yearThe share of respondents who believe Netflix has the best original content improved for the second consecutive year.
• Netflix ad-tier adoption26%Up from 22% last year; the ad-free tier is about 30%, suggesting the ad tier is more incremental rather than fully cannibalistic.
• Traditional pay-TV subscription rate40%Down from 44% last year, but broadly in line with the prior three years.
• Leading vMVPD platformsYouTube TV 29%; Hulu+ Live TV 21%Both increased their share of vMVPD subscriptions year over year.
• Live sports streaming viewingAbout 62% watch live sports frequently; ESPN 31%; Prime Video 22%Sports remains a core live-viewing use case and continues to migrate to streaming.
• Potential HBO Max/Paramount+ combined serviceOnly 10% of existing related subscribers said they would be less likely to subscribe; about 40% to 50% of non-subscribers said they might joinThe report sees this as a potential positive for PSKY, but also notes that without a pricing-point scenario, respondents may overestimate future behavior.

Impact & implications

For investors, the report supports continued focus on platforms with scaled distribution, strong content mindshare, ad monetization, and sports rights gateways. Netflix's survey data alleviates some market concerns about engagement and pricing power; Disney/ESPN benefits from the stickiness of live sports; if PSKY can successfully integrate Paramount+ and HBO Max, it could create a more competitive super-service; META's Reels growth shows that short-form video is further capturing entertainment time. At the industry level, competition remains intense, but the simultaneous rise in the number of services used, paid subscriptions, and viewing time suggests that market growth has not yet ended.

Risks

• The survey is based on self-reported consumer data, and future subscription intent may overestimate actual behavior, especially in combined-service scenarios with unknown pricing points.
• Credit card panel churn indicators are only directional proxies and may be affected by sample composition, payment-method switching, and billing timing.
• Streaming competition remains intense, and content costs, sports-rights costs, and ad monetization efficiency will affect margins.
• If AI and UGC platforms significantly improve content supply efficiency, traditional SVOD platforms may face pressure on user time spent and content differentiation.
• Continued price increases by platforms such as Netflix could eventually trigger higher churn or structural cannibalization between ad-tier and ad-free tiers.
• Although traditional pay TV is declining, it still has a core user base, and the pace of sports-rights migration may affect the growth path of streaming platforms.

What to watch

• Netflix's upcoming content slate, engagement metrics, ad-tier mix, and churn performance after price increases.
• Changes in user penetration, share of viewing time, and net retention scores for Amazon Prime Video, YouTube, and Netflix.
• Disney/ESPN live sports products, acceptance of ESPN Unlimited, and the return on sports-rights costs.
• Pricing, integration execution, actual subscription conversion, and substitution effects on other platforms for a potential HBO Max and Paramount+ combined service.
• Whether ad-tier subscriptions continue to expand the overall user pool or begin to clearly cannibalize ad-free subscription revenue.
• The diversion of viewing time from traditional TV and SVOD by short-form formats such as META Reels, TikTok, and micro-dramas.