RJF's April NNA was nearly flat, while client cash declined due to seasonal factors

Overview

This report reviews Raymond James Financial Inc.'s monthly metrics for April 2026. RJF's total client assets grew meaningfully, but organic net new asset growth was nearly flat, while client cash balances declined due to seasonal factors. Goldman Sachs overall maintains its Buy rating, but believes April's NNA performance may feel somewhat subdued to investors.

Core views

The core views are: first, the rebound in equity markets and net inflows drove client asset growth, indicating continued support on the asset side; second, firmwide organic NNA was only slightly positive, appearing insufficient relative to the low-single-digit growth in the previous quarter; third, the month-over-month decline in cash balances was mainly due to quarterly fees and client tax payments, which are expected seasonal factors, but this still contrasts somewhat with SCHW's month-over-month growth in transactional cash; fourth, the investment banking demand pipeline remains healthy, but deal execution is being dragged by macro uncertainty.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses a monthly operating metric tracking approach, observing total client assets, organic NNA, client cash, sweep balance mix, bank loans, and the investment banking pipeline across horizontal and month-over-month dimensions, and combines this with Goldman Sachs' existing valuation framework to form its rating and target price judgment.

Methodology notes

• Operating metric trackingMonthly monitoring of organic NNA and client assets

  Assess wealth management and capital markets business momentum through changes in net new assets, client assets, cash balances, and loans.

  Based on RJF's monthly disclosure, Goldman Sachs judges that firmwide organic NNA in April was nearly flat or slightly positive, and compares this with the low-single-digit NNA growth in C1Q26.

• Valuation method12x Q5-Q8 P/E

  Derive the 12-month target price using a forward price-to-earnings multiple.

  Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price for RJF is $195, based on 12x Q5-Q8 P/E, and this target is maintained unchanged in this update.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compare the stock's position relative to the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and overall percentile ranking.

  This disclosure framework is used to provide investment background for the stock, but the main body of this report remains focused on RJF's April operating metrics and rating valuation.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF)

  The core covered name in the report; Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating.

  Strengths

  Total client asset growth was strong, bank loans continued to grow, and the investment banking pipeline is still described as healthy.

  Weaknesses

  Firmwide organic NNA was only nearly flat, client cash balances declined month over month, and the timing of investment banking deal completion remains uncertain.

  Comparison

  RJF's client cash declined 4% month over month, while SCHW's transactional cash balance increased 1% month over month in April, creating a relatively unfavorable comparison.

  Risks

  Faster core deposit outflows, weaker investment banking or trading activity, and market declines could all pressure earnings and valuation.

Key data

• Total client assets$1.87trUp 6% month over month and 22% year over year in April, mainly driven by the rise in the equity market and net asset inflows.
• Firmwide organic NNANearly flat or slightly positiveGoldman Sachs believes this performance may be slightly below investor expectations relative to the low-single-digit NNA growth in C1Q26.
• Client cash balances including ESP$55.6bnIt was $57.8 billion at the end of March, down 4% month over month and flat year over year in April, slightly below the $55.7 billion reported by RJF at earnings.
• Sweep balances as a percentage of total client assets2.97%It was 3.28% in March and 3.63% in the same period last year.
• Bank loans$55.4bnUp 1% month over month and 14% year over year.
• Investment banking pipelineHealthy but deal execution slowedRJF stated that the pipeline remains healthy, but macro volatility and uncertainty have slowed the pace of deal completions.
• Rating and target priceBuy, target price $195The 12-month target price is based on 12x Q5-Q8 P/E and is unchanged from the previous level.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, RJF's asset side is supported by the market rebound, but April's NNA and cash data were not strong enough, which may limit near-term sentiment. Goldman Sachs' reiterated Buy rating indicates that it remains constructive on the company's medium-term return potential, but investors still need to verify whether cash trends, NNA recovery, and investment banking deal execution improve.

Risks

• Core deposit outflows are faster than expected.
• Investment banking or trading activity is weaker than expected.
• A weaker equity market pressures client assets and the fee base.
• Macro volatility and uncertainty continue to delay investment banking deal closings.

What to watch

• Whether organic NNA in subsequent months can recover from near-flat levels to higher growth.
• Whether client cash balances and the sweep balance mix continue to decline.
• Whether the healthy investment banking pipeline can convert into actual deals and revenue.
• Whether bank loan growth can be maintained while credit and funding cost risks remain controllable.
• Whether the divergence in cash trends between RJF and peers such as SCHW widens.