Tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below pre-conflict levels

Overview

This is Morgan Stanley's 38th daily tracker on the Strait of Hormuz, covering oil and gas tanker positions, passage indicators by vessel type, freight rates, loading and arrival patterns, and key developments and risks related to the resumption of shipping. The report's core focus is whether oil and gas logistics recover after disruption to the Middle East export route, and what that means for crude, refined products, Asian refiners, and the global energy market.

Core views

The report shows that tanker activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains at an extremely low level: no tanker passage was observed today, and while the 7-day average outbound movement has rebounded from early March, it is still down about 90% from pre-conflict levels. At the same time, some Middle Eastern producers have already asked Asian refiners to submit loading plans for April and May, indicating that the market is preparing for a future resumption of shipping, although political conditions and security risks remain the main constraints.

Analysis framework

The report uses a high-frequency shipping-tracking framework, combining tanker passage, vessel direction, loading and arrival data, freight rates, and the timeline of news events to assess the degree of disruption to the global oil and gas supply chain through the Strait of Hormuz. Its logic treats loading data as a leading indicator of arrival data and uses 7-day moving averages to observe short-term passage trends.

Methodology notes

• shipping_flow_trackingoil and gas tanker passage tracking

  Measures supply-chain recovery by tracking the direction, vessel type, and frequency of tanker movements in and out of the Strait of Hormuz.

  The report records tanker passage today and on the prior day, and uses a 7-day moving average of outbound movements to smooth short-term volatility.

• leading_indicatorloading as a leading indicator of arrivals

  New loading volumes typically lead arrival volumes in importing countries.

  The report compares crude loading from locations behind the Strait of Hormuz into key importing countries with still-active arrival data, using loading changes to anticipate future arrival trends.

• event_risk_trackinggeopolitical event timeline

  Incorporates negotiation conditions, ceasefires, asset releases, and protests into energy supply risk assessments.

  The report treats political statements and regional events as important contextual variables for whether shipping resumes or remains constrained.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• crude oil

  directly related

  Strengths

  A recovery in loading and tanker passage would improve supply visibility.

  Weaknesses

  Passage volumes are still about 90% below pre-conflict levels, and supply-chain normalization has not yet been confirmed.

  Comparison

  Loading data is more leading than arrival data.

  Risks

  Geopolitical conditions are unmet, Strait security risks, and negotiation delays.

• natural gas and oil/gas tankers

  directly related

  Strengths

  Vessel positions and vessel-type passage indicators can be used for high-frequency monitoring of recovery progress.

  Weaknesses

  Single-day data can be volatile and should be interpreted with moving averages.

  Comparison

  The 7-day average has improved from early March, but remains far below pre-conflict levels.

  Risks

  Vessel rerouting, higher insurance and freight rates, and port or channel restrictions.

• Asian refiners

  indirectly affected

  Strengths

  Submitting April and May loading plans shows refiners are preparing for a recovery in supply.

  Weaknesses

  Actual deliveries still depend on Strait passage and a recovery in Middle Eastern exports.

  Comparison

  Loading plans precede actual arrivals in reflecting expectations for supply recovery.

  Risks

  Procurement delays, inventory pressure, and raw material cost volatility.

• refined-product crack spreads

  indirectly affected

  Strengths

  Supply disruptions may support crack spreads in some regions.

  Weaknesses

  If shipping resumes, easing supply pressure may reduce the risk premium.

  Comparison

  Global benchmark refined-product crack spreads are among the tracked indicators.

  Risks

  Demand changes, refinery utilization, and sharp crude price volatility.

Key data

• Report time2026-04-10 05:26 PM GMTPublication time disclosed on the report's front page.
• Tanker passage today0 vesselsThe report says no tanker passage was observed today.
• Backfilled observations for the prior day3 recordsTwo tankers left the strait for India, and one VLCC entered from Malaysia.
• 7-day average outbound movement1.9 vessels/dayHigher than 1.1 vessels/day in early March, but still about 90% below pre-conflict levels.
• Loading plansApril and MayMiddle Eastern producers asked Asian refiners to submit loading plans in preparation for a future resumption of shipping.

Impact & implications

If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, crude and gas logistics, Asian refiners' procurement pace, refined-product crack spreads, and energy freight rates may continue to face pressure or volatility; if loading plans gradually recover, improvement may first appear in shipment data and only later show up in import-country arrival data.

Risks

• The shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts longer than expected.
• Conditions related to Iran are not met, allowing regional tensions to persist.
• There is a lag between tanker passage, loading, and arrival data, so short-term judgments may be affected by backfilled records.
• Non-Middle East events such as protests, port blockades, or refinery disruptions may also amplify fuel-price volatility.
• The report discloses that Morgan Stanley has or may have investment banking and other commercial relationships with multiple energy companies, and investors should be aware of potential conflicts of interest.

What to watch

• Whether the daily number of tankers entering and leaving the Strait of Hormuz and the 7-day moving average continue to recover.
• Changes in direction and destination for VLCCs and other major vessel types.
• Whether loading plans for April and May from Middle Eastern producers to Asian refiners translate into actual loading.
• Whether loading data leads improvements in arrival data for key importing countries.
• Progress on the Lebanon ceasefire, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and related negotiations.
• Freight rates, crude prices, and the synchronized reaction in key refined-product crack spreads.