2026 NVL72-equivalent rack shipments are expected to exceed 80,000 units, with the AI server supply chain sustaining high growth

Overview

This report updates the July 2026 GB200/GB300 NVL72-equivalent rack shipments and full-year forecasts for major server ODMs. Industry production in July was about 8,000 units, broadly flat month on month; Hon Hai shipped about 3,600 units, Quanta about 2,200 to 2,250 units, and Wistron’s compute-tray converted volume was about 1,150 to 1,200 units. Morgan Stanley sets its full-year 2026 industry forecast at 80,000 to 85,000 units, up more than 100% from about 29,000 units in the prior year, reflecting continued strong downstream rack-assembly demand for AI servers.

Core views

The AI server rack supply chain remains in a rapid expansion cycle, with 2026 shipment growth expected to exceed 100%. Hon Hai demonstrates strong execution through the largest shipment scale and July month-on-month growth; although Wistron’s converted shipments declined month on month in July, its full-year forecast was recently raised to about 17,900 units, offering the most attractive target-price upside; Quanta’s full-year forecast of about 18,700 units remains unchanged. The report maintains Overweight ratings on major ODMs, with the preference order being Wistron, Hon Hai, and Quanta. For NVIDIA, rack production growth provides positive supply-chain validation for GB200/GB300 platform ramp-up, but the statistical volume is not fully equivalent to end-customer deliveries.

Analysis framework

The report uses a bottom-up ODM tracking approach, combining monthly revenue, shipments of traditional products such as notebook and desktop PCs, and estimates of server compute-tray and complete-rack shipments to form monthly and quarterly rack forecasts, which are then aggregated into full-year industry NVL72-equivalent rack production. Stock views also reference a residual income valuation model and target-price upside.

Methodology notes

• Supply-chain forecastingBottom-up ODM shipment tracking

  Estimate monthly, quarterly, and full-year GB200/GB300 NVL72-equivalent rack production by major ODM.

  By tracking monthly revenue, server-related business performance, and rack or compute-tray shipments of vendors such as Hon Hai, Quanta, and Wistron, the report aggregates industry production and compares month-on-month changes.

• Metric adjustmentRack-equivalent conversion

  Convert Wistron’s L10 compute-tray shipments into rack-equivalent volume.

  This measure does not include the subsequent L11 rack assembly and testing time, so industry statistical production may be higher than the number of complete racks actually received by end customers during the same period.

• Equity valuationResidual income valuation model

  Estimate the base-case value of supply-chain companies based on cost of equity, mid-term growth rate, and perpetual growth rate.

  The relevant base-case assumptions disclosed in the report include a cost of equity of 8.5% to 9.0%, mid-term growth rates of 7.0% to 13%, and a perpetual growth rate of 3%.

• Relative ratingRisk-adjusted relative return rating

  Determine stock ratings based on risk-adjusted total return relative to the industry coverage universe over the next 12 to 18 months.

  Overweight indicates that the stock’s total return is expected to exceed the average level of the industry coverage universe; Wistron, Hon Hai, and Quanta in the report are all rated Overweight.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• NVIDIA CORP（US.NVDA）

  Core beneficiary asset of GB200/GB300 NVL72 platform and AI server demand

  Strengths

  Major ODM full-year rack forecasts exceed 80,000 units, providing positive supply-chain validation for platform ramp-up and AI infrastructure demand.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide an NVDA rating, target price, or direct revenue forecast, and ODM production is not equivalent to NVIDIA revenue recognition.

  Comparison

  Compared with supply-chain ODMs, NVIDIA sits at the core platform and accelerated computing layer, but the report’s direct analysis mainly focuses on ODM shipments.

  Risks

  End-customer deliveries falling below converted production, slower AI server penetration, and supply-chain execution or demand falling short of expectations.

• Wistron Corporation（3231.TW）

  GB200/GB300 server compute-tray and rack supplier

  Strengths

  The full-year forecast was recently raised to about 17,900 units, and it ranks first among the three ODMs based on target-price upside.

  Weaknesses

  July rack-equivalent shipments declined about 6% month on month, and monthly revenue also declined 4% month on month.

  Comparison

  Its preference ranking is higher than Hon Hai and Quanta, but its absolute July shipment scale was lower than both.

  Risks

  There is a timing gap in assembly and testing from compute trays to complete racks, alongside risks from notebook PC demand, margins, and price competition.

• Hon Hai Precision（2317.TW）

  Major GB200/GB300 rack assembly supplier

  Strengths

  July shipments were about 3,600 units, up 9% month on month, with a full-year forecast of about 31,700 units, leading the three ODMs in scale.

  Weaknesses

  The business is also affected by consumer electronics and iPhone demand, with multiple performance drivers.

  Comparison

  Its supply scale leads Quanta and Wistron, and it ranks second in investment preference.

  Risks

  iPhone sales, profit contribution from the AI server business, electric vehicle business progress, and geopolitical changes may affect valuation.

• Quanta Computer Inc.（2382.TW）

  Major GB200/GB300 rack ODM supplier

  Strengths

  July revenue increased 131% year on year, and the full-year rack forecast is maintained at about 18,700 units.

  Weaknesses

  July rack shipments declined about 4% month on month, revenue declined 5% month on month, and traditional notebook PC shipments fell significantly.

  Comparison

  The full-year forecast is slightly higher than Wistron’s, but it ranks third in preference based on target-price upside.

  Risks

  Weaker notebook PC and server demand, lower-than-expected AI server penetration, rising labor costs, and price competition in large data centers.

Key data

• July 2026 industry rack productionAbout 8,000 unitsGB200/GB300 NVL72-equivalent basis, broadly flat month on month.
• Full-year 2026 industry forecast80,000 to 85,000 unitsUp more than 100% from about 29,000 units in the prior year.
• Quanta July rack shipments2,200 to 2,250 unitsDown about 4% month on month; full-year forecast maintained at about 18,700 units.
• Wistron July rack-equivalent shipments1,150 to 1,200 unitsMainly converted from server compute trays, down about 6% month on month; full-year forecast recently raised to about 17,900 units.
• Hon Hai July rack shipmentsAbout 3,600 unitsUp about 9% month on month; full-year forecast maintained at about 31,700 units.
• Quanta July revenueNT$366.3 billionDown 5% month on month and up 131% year on year.
• Wistron July revenueNT$308.2 billionDown 4% month on month and up 61% year on year.
• Hon Hai July revenueNT$946.5 billionUp 15% month on month and 54% year on year, with server-related business showing the strongest month-on-month growth.
• ODM preference orderWistron > Hon Hai > QuantaRanking is based on target-price upside.

Impact & implications

The full-year forecast of 80,000 to 85,000 racks implies that the NVIDIA GB200/GB300 platform is driving rapid growth in demand for server ODMs, compute trays, rack assembly, and related components, with a positive impact on AI server supply-chain revenue and product mix. Hon Hai has scale advantages, Wistron’s forecast upgrade brings stronger marginal improvement, and Quanta maintains a stable contribution. However, there is a timing gap between L10 compute-tray conversion and complete-rack delivery, so investors should not directly equate production data with end-customer deployment or revenue recognition.

Risks

• The statistical measure includes Wistron L10 compute-tray rack-equivalent volume, and the actual number of complete racks received by end customers may be lower.
• AI server demand or penetration may be lower than expected, potentially leading to a downward revision of the full-year forecast of 80,000 to 85,000 units.
• Delays may occur in server compute trays, rack assembly, testing, and delivery.
• Intensifying price competition in the large data center market, combined with rising labor costs, may compress ODM margins.
• Weak demand for notebook PCs, iPhones, and other consumer electronics may drag on suppliers’ overall performance.
• Changes in geopolitics and the foreign investment environment may affect supply-chain operations and valuations.
• Morgan Stanley has investment banking or other business relationships with some covered companies, and investors should treat this report as only one factor in decision-making.

What to watch

• Whether monthly GB200 and GB300 rack production can continue to rise from the July level of about 8,000 units.
• Whether Wistron can deliver on its raised full-year target of about 17,900 units, and the pace of conversion from L10 compute trays to L11 complete racks.
• Whether Hon Hai can sustain July’s 9% month-on-month growth in rack shipments and reach about 31,700 units for the full year.
• Whether Quanta’s rack shipments and traditional notebook PC business can recover after month-on-month declines.
• Whether full-year industry shipments can reach 80,000 to 85,000 units, and the differences versus end-customer deployment, customer acceptance, and revenue recognition.
• The speed of product transition from GB200 to GB300 and its impact on ODM revenue, product mix, and margins.